We’re back with a small four-game slate on Monday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening. We’re locking in on some players in the Washington Wizards-Toronto Raptors game for Monday’s NBA DFS contrarian picks
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today
Contrarian Stud — Kyle Kuzma: Washington Wizards-Toronto Raptors
After beginning the season as one of the most popular players on every slate he was on, Kyle Kuzma is emerging as the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $8,300. Coming into tonight averaging 37.5 DraftKings points per game, Kuzma has established himself as the clear top option on a rebuilding Wizards team. After back-to-back subpar performances, however, the field is already bailing on Kuzma, making him one of the top leverage plays on the board.
As of this writing, our tools have Kuzma projected to be in just 14.8% of lineups tonight. Compare that to his optimal percentage of 15.4%, and it’s obvious why he stands out as an elite differentiator in tournaments. While his relatively expensive $8,300 price tag is presumably scaring people away, there is no doubt that if the Wizards keep tonight’s game competitive, Kuzma is likely the reason why. With some big-time upside even at his increased price point, he is one of the top tournament plays on the board.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Jakob Poeltl: Washington Wizards-Toronto Raptors
In what looks like the game of the night from a DFS perspective, there is a ton to like about Toronto in a matchup with the Wizards. Coming into tonight’s action with by far the worst defense in the Association, Washington is basically a cheat code for fantasy basketball purposes, and the Raptors will reap those benefits tonight. While pretty much everyone relevant on Toronto will get some ownership, Jakob Poeltl is falling through the cracks a bit, and he is the top contrarian mid-tier play on the slate.
While most would expect Poeltl to have his way with a small Wizards frontcourt, he just isn’t getting viewed as a priority with so many other good plays on Toronto. Much of that can be explained by his lack of production this season, as the field is rightly hesitant to spend $6,100 on a center averaging only 25.2 DraftKings points per game. Despite his slow-ish start to the season, Poeltl is projected to be optimal 19.3% of the time this slate plays out. Even with that high optimal percentage, the field isn’t getting to him at nearly that rate, with only 14.8% of lineups expected to include him. With ownership pretty concentrated on this four-game slate, Poeltl is a great way to get different without sacrificing any upside.
Contrarian Value — Ayo Dosunmu: Chicago Bulls-Detroit Pistons
Deviating from the Wizards-Raptors game, Bulls guard Ayo Dosunmu is projected as the top contrarian value play at only $3,400 on DraftKings. As DraftKings continues to do a much better job of consistently pricing up players, there seems to be a definite lack of viable value pieces priced under $4,000. As such, we’ve had to dumpster dive a bit for contrarian value, and that theme continues tonight with Dosunmu.
While he is unlikely to be the reason tournaments are won tonight, Dosunmu is a valuable filler piece with his $3,400 price tag opening up a lot of room for different types of roster construction. Projected for 18.23 DraftKings points tonight, rostering Dosunmu is much more about being able to fit the pieces around him than Dosunmu himself. That said, our Boom/Bust tool has Dosunmu projected to be optimal 41.3% of the time on this slate, making it clear why his price tag is so valuable. With only 10.5% of the field projected to roster him, there are plenty of reasons to like him as a differentiator in tournaments.
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