Thursday brings the Semifinal round of the NBA In-Season Tournament, with an early 5 p.m. ET tipoff on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the core building block, Damian Lillard is intriguing in DFS and the sports wagering market, and we have a plethora of options at the center position. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Thursday, December 7
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 63.9 | FanDuel: 63.11
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings:24.4% | FanDuel: 25.4%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11000 | FanDuel: $12100
In a bit of a surprise, Giannis Antetokounmpo is projected to appear on only one-in-four tournament rosters tonight. He does have the highest salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as the top median fantasy point projection. The Milwaukee defense sorely misses Jrue Holiday, but the offense is truly elite with the addition of Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton getting healthier. Antetokounmpo is having another strong fantasy season, averaging just over 55 fantasy points per game, and he has 60-plus in the last six.
Indiana is a dream matchup from a fantasy perspective, as the Pacers are playing at one of the fastest paces in the league and have one of the worst defenses and, improbably, one of the most efficient offenses, which keeps pressure on the opposition at all times. They have earned their spot in the Semifinals, and it is far from a fluke. In the first meeting between these teams this year, Milwaukee lost 126-124 in Indiana. On Tuesday we saw the Knicks hang 122 points on the Bucks, including 72 in the first half. Antetokounmpo is the core building block today, with Lillard and Tyrese Haliburton serving as fine secondary options and an eye towards added synergy of playing the trio together.
That strategy provides a median projection that is around two dozen shy of the DraftKings optimal projection, and it is 10 fantasy points below the FanDuel optimal.
Centers of Attention
There are four outstanding center-only options today, with each having merit on FanDuel. DraftKings is less restrictive with the utility slot, so we are able to roster two of these bigs. So this analysis has a FanDuel-centric lean but applies to the other main NBA DFS sites.
Anthony Davis: Most expensive option but also has the third-best overall median fantasy point projection across the DFS world. In his five most recent games against the team that drafted him, he is averaging 35.1 minutes, 28.0 points, 13.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 2.4 combined blocks and steals, culminating in 55.9 FanDuel points.
Jonas Valanciunas: Is the least popular of the four options on FanDuel, at half the popularity of Lopez, despite a similar salary and fantasy projection. Looking at the recent game logs, we can see that JoVal has hit the 40-fantasy-point plateau only three times in the last 11 games, while Lopez has reached it in eight of his last 11 appearances. However, in his last five matchups with Davis, he does have a pair for 42-FanDuel-point efforts, so there is upside.
Brook Lopez: Is in solid current form and averaging a career-high 2.8 blocks per game, which is currently leading the league as well. This is his 16th NBA campaign, and he is no stranger to big games. The main knock against Lopez is his lack of rebounding, and his 5.0 this season are well below his 6.2 career rate and 6.7 resurgence from last season. His performances against Turner and the Pacers have been mediocre at best, but he has just one 40-fantasy-point performance in the last four meetings, with the other three falling below 30 FanDuel points.
Myles Turner: This season he is blocking just 2.1 shots, and he has fallen each of the last four years since leading the league with 3.4 during the 2020 season. He has at least 30 FanDuel points in 11 of his last 13 games, but only once has he topped 40 fantasy points. However, he has topped that threshold in four of the last five games against Milwaukee, and keep in mind he is going to be around the rim dealing with Antetokounmpo, rather than floating out to the 3-point line with Lopez.
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Additional NBA Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Damian Lillard is looking intriguing in the sports wagering market, with a +104 line to fall under his over 40.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop. Per the +120 “True Odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this is not an overly advantageous wager since it works out to a -8% expected ROI. Looking across the various sportsbooks offering this bet, we can see a variety of lines ranging from +104 to -112, and even Tipico is offering it at -120 but with one less PRA at over 39.5.
What is not displayed, however, is that there are several “pick’em” sites offering the same over 40.5 wager at a 50/50 proposition. Of course, we need to add in a second leg to take advantage of that wrinkle, which sort of evens things back out to around a -110 line.
NBA Bet Pro has Lillard projected for 37.0 minutes, 27.07 points, 5.15 rebounds and 7.82 assists, which works out to 40.04 PRA. Those figures are in line with Lillard’s per-36-minute rates this season, but we have seen him improve over the last month as he becomes more familiar with his new team. In the last game, he posted 38 PRA in just 34 minutes.
In his last seven games playing at least 36 minutes, Lillard posted five games with 40 PRA or more, and none of those games were as good as the matchup tonight.
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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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