Friday welcomes a holiday weekend with a splendiferous six-game featured slate that tips at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker project well as they carry the load without Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Friday, December 22
Kevin Durant: Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 53.06 | FanDuel: 52.01
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 25.4% | FanDuel: 29.8%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,700 | FanDuel: $10,200
Kevin Durant is shaping up to be a strong option on the six-game slate tonight, with his dual-forward eligibility on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic are the only two players with a higher median fantasy projection, and, of course, they are center-only, which is a position that often provides some of the best fantasy-point-per-dollar plays.
The Suns are in Sacramento tonight, with the hometown Kings installed as 3.5-point favorites. Phoenix trails Sac-Town in the standings by 3.5 games, so this is an important matchup for the Western Conference playoff picture. Over the last 10 games, Sacramento has a 120.1 defensive efficiency rating, which is the fifth worst in the league during this stretch. However, the Kings offense is producing at a similar rate, which has led to several games with eye-popping point totals, as the matchups are typically contested well into the fourth quarter.
These two teams met two weeks ago, with the Kings taking down the Suns 114-106 in Phoenix and an average point differential of 0.64 for the game. Durant and Bradley Beal did not play in that game, and while Beal is out tonight, Durant and Devin Booker should keep this game close.
Booker and Durant will also be without Jusuf Nurkic, who is away from the team for personal reasons. That means Drew Eubanks should get additional run at center, and Durant can always play the nominal five against Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis is yet another center option on DraftKings, but do not lose sight of him on FanDuel, where he also qualifies as a power forward. De’Aaron Fox is also on the shortlist of tournament difference-makers tonight.
Sacramento plays again tomorrow, hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves. Phoenix does not play again until Christmas Day, when the Dallas Mavericks will be in town for the nightcap game of the featured slate.
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets
Luka Doncic has been ruled out with a quad injury, but hopefully he will be able to return for the Christmas Night matchup against the Suns. Dallas plays again tomorrow, hosting the San Antonio Spurs, so it will be interesting if Doncic suits up then. Dante Exum (lower left leg) is out tonight as well, though he expects to play tomorrow. Then there is the missing quartet of Kyrie Irving, Josh Green, Derek Lively II and Maximilian Kleber, which has created a void that is being filled by the understudies across the starting lineup.
Jaden Hardy has been inconsistent this season, but his chaotic minutes allotment and mercurial production have led to a low salary. He is the punt du jour today, even if he continues to play off the bench. Dwight Powell does not have a lot of upside, and he has not cleared 25 fantasy points on the season, with just four games of more than 20 fantasy points. Powell started the last two games, playing 23 and 17 minutes and scoring just over 20 fantasy points combined in this pair of appearances. He will be needed to battle Alperen Sengun, but foul trouble is all but assured in this mismatch.
Derrick Jones Jr. and Tim Hardaway Jr. will need to put the biscuit in the basket, but they hold the highest probability of producing 30 fantasy points tonight among those being forced into more prominent roles. Seth Curry (back) is a game-time decision, but he and Grant Williams can be considered tournament fillers.
Houston has been much improved this season, and despite the Rockets being on a three-game losing streak, they are still one game above .500. Defense has been the biggest change over last year, and Houston has a 114.1 defensive efficiency rating over the last 10 games, which is the seventh best in the league. This season the Rockets have separate five- and six-game winning streaks and a +2.7 net rating on the year.
Fred VanVleet has been a huge part of this turnaround, and his steady veteran presence, along with Sengun getting a career-high 32 minutes of run, provides an excellent inside-outside combo. They are the best fantasy options tonight.
Jabari Smith dropped 60 fantasy points on Atlanta Wednesday, but that was more production than his three preceding games combined. Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks join Smith as tournament wild cards, though this trio has combined for eight outings of 30-plus fantasy points over the last nine games.
Tari Eason carries a questionable tag, but if he is a go, this is a great matchup for his skillset. He performs well in free-flowing games with his ability to collect blocks, steals and rebounds, but he is great at filling the lane. The 22-year-old has upped his per-minute fantasy production by about 10% this season, and there is clearly room for more.
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Washington Wizards at Golden State Warriors
Somehow Washington held on to beat the Trail Blazers in Portland 118-117 last night. That gives the team five wins on the season and two in the last four games. It is still a bottom-3 team, which will assure the Wizards of an equal share of lottery balls with the San Antonio Spurs and dreadful Detroit Pistons.
While this is a back-to-back and most of the starters played north of 35 minutes, Washington had been off since Monday and does not take the court again until Tuesday. Kyle Kuzma is the best fantasy option, though his consistent production has him with a neutral salary tonight. Danilo Gallinari will be out for rest, so that should lead to his minutes being distributed among Deni Avdija, Bilal Coulibaly and Mike Muscala. Skip the latter, but the first two look good for late-slate tournaments. Avdija is a fringe core play on FanDuel ($5,500) on the main slate with his favorable salary.
Jordan Poole, of course, gets to go against his former team, but he has been such a disappointment this season that it is hard to be excited about him. Even on the sports wagering front, he has a 21.5 points line, and while he has surpassed that milestone only eight times in 26 games this season, taking the under with an emotionally charged narrative — well, that doesn’t feel good either.
Stephen Curry has been slipping in his performances, and his last trip to the 50-fantasy-point plateau was on Nov. 30. Still, he warrants consideration as a secondary option with his sliding salary and good matchup. Brandin Podziemski (back) is questionable, and with his increased salary now that he has been a starter for four games, he is not appealing tonight.
Trayce Jackson-Davis has popped off for a pair of 30-plus-fantasy-point efforts, and he should be in the mix for 22 to 26 minutes with some attainable upside. FanDuel ($6,100) got ahead on his salary, but DraftKings ($4,600) did not. If Podziemski is out, Jackson-Davis should get some extra trickledown minutes, and he would be a fringe option on the featured slate and a stellar play on the late slate.
Klay Thompson, Chris Paul and Jonathan Kuminga are adequate tournament options, but do not get carried away with their representation in your player portfolios tonight.
Additional NBA Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Fred VanVleet is coming off two monster games, but we can still consider the -115 line on his under 35.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop. Per the true odds of -135 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a whopping 8% expected ROI, resulting from the inefficient line.
It is crucial to take advantage of OddsShopper to look at all the available lines since that can easily be worth another 2% to 3% ROI, even on perfectly neutral bets, based on how the different books value things. Looking at the screenshot below, the -139 posted at Pinnacle for under 34.5 PRA demonstrates this very concept. This wager is a full PRA under the Tipico offering while also being at a more punitive figure.
NBA Bet Pro has VanVleet projected for 39.4 minutes, 19.18 points, 5.05 rebounds and 9.07 assists for 33.30 PRA. The current available wager has a 58% win probability, which is higher than the 54% win probability for the Pinnacle PRA.
Even though VanVleet had put up 51 and 52 PRA in his last two games, those were on extreme amounts of playing time of 44.1 and 45.2 minutes. In the 17 prior games, his best PRA totals were 37, 34 and 34. Tonight he is going against a bunch of reserves, and we know he has fun handing out assists (15 and 17) in his last two games, so it would not be a surprise to see him get the likes of Smith, Green, Brooks and Eason involved tonight.
That would in turn mean fewer field goal attempts, and despite his red-hot shooting of 19-for -39 (48.7%) from the field and 7 of 15 (46.7) from downtown, this season he has a 39.7% conversion rate from the field and 38.8% from beyond the arc. Use this line to hedge out some of the DFS risk and with the understanding that the other shoe is about to drop.
Rooting for unders does not have the same cachet and positivity as overs, but that is where the line value is more often than not with player props, as the sportsbooks look to use psychology against bettors.
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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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