Friday wraps up the workweek with a frontloaded eight-game featured slate tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Victor Wembanyama and Scottie Barnes may be a little overlooked tonight, plus we have several fantasy friendly track meets providing value options. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Friday, December 15
Victor Wembanyama: San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Lakers
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 47.99 | FanDuel: 47.63
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 13.8% | FanDuel: 4.2%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,100 | FanDuel: $10,300
While this almost feels like chasing points, looking at rookie Victor Wembanyama has been on a real heater over his last 10 games. During this stretch he is averaging a tick shy of 31 minutes per game and 16.2 field goal attempts. His 44% success rate from the field and 25.7% from beyond the arc need to get better, but considering he has averaged 4.8 free-throw attempts during this timeframe with a 77.6% conversion rate, that is a positive sign.
Over these 10 games, the 19-year-old is averaging 19.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.6 steals and 3.9 blocks. That is 16.5 fantasy points per game on just blocks and steals under the FanDuel scoring system. This works out to just over 50 fantasy points per game, and in full disclosure to avoid thoughts of cherry picking this stretch of games, if we go back four more for a total of 14 tilts, he is within a whisker of the 50-fantasy-point plateau. WOW!
Do not lose sight of Wembanyama when building out stars-and-scrubs rosters just because he isn’t in the top grouping of Joel Embiid, Tyrese Haliburton, Anthony Davis and LeBron James. Speaking of the Lakers duo, it would not be a surprise to see one of them sit out tonight, though Los Angeles has the full weekend off before hosting the Knicks on Monday.
Scottie Barnes: Toronto Raptors vs. Atlanta Hawks
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 49.34 | FanDuel: 48.65
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 12.1% | FanDuel: 20.3%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $,9200
On Wednesday Scottie Barnes was the core building block of the day, and he did not disappoint with 50-plus fantasy points. Tonight is a rematch of that tilt, with the Atlanta Hawks looking to avenge their 135-128 loss in Toronto. Though we may not see 266 combined points again, this matchup does have a 241.5 over/under as assigned by the oddsmakers, which is the highest on the docket. Barnes has seen his fantasy points increase from 33 to 34 to a robust 45.5 in his third season, even though his minutes have been relatively flat at 35.4, 34.8 and 34.9 per game. He has upped his scoring by almost 5 points per game, with two more rebounds, nearly one more assist, and an additional combined block and steal since last year.
Toronto has five of the 15 most popular players on DraftKings, including Jakob Poeltl, Gary Trent Jr., Dennis Schroder, O.G. Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, which means that while gamers will be attracted to this matchup, they are likely to leave out Barnes. On FanDuel, Barnes joins Siakam and Anunoby in the top 15.
Trae Young is in that second salary tier with Wembanyama and Barnes, making him an interesting tournament play. He had 17 assists in this matchup on Wednesday, which was the third most in his career, along with 35 points. The lack of rebounds is always going to keep him out of that truly elite DFS category, but he has access to 60 fantasy points when his shot is dropping, making him a tournament difference-maker.
Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards
For anyone who watched the Chargers spontaneously combust on Thursday Night Football, giving up 49 points to the Raiders in the first half and losing 63-21 in Las Vegas, that is a precursor to what the Washington Wizards are looking at right now. The team is 3-20 on the season and 1-15 over its last 16 games. The Wizards went from being fun and frisky, though a defensive disaster, to losing their last three games by a combined 92 points, resulting in an average 137.3-106.7 final score.
Jordan Poole is questionable with an ankle injury, and even when healthy, he is questionable with his on-court decision making capabilities. This should have been the perfect fit for him, racking up 25 points a night on a team going nowhere and having little interest in winning. Instead the team now has little interest in Poole and will likely end up dumping him at a discount to any takers at the trade deadline. He has played more than 30 minutes in only 12 of 22 games, mostly because of foul trouble and foolish defensive mistakes, plus incredibly self-absorbed decisions on offense. He has scored 20 or more points only six times this season. TLDR: buyer beware.
Tyus Jones should get all the minutes he can handle if Poole is out since Delon Wright and Landry Shamet are out as well. Deni Avdija and Kyle Kuzma can act as secondary facilitators, and this trio is the one to target in the dream matchup against the Pacers.
On the Indiana side, Myles Turner should thrive with only Daniel Gafford and Kuzma as the main Washington rebounders, plus he should be able to block at least one of Poole’s shots. Tyrese Haliburton has disappointed in his last three appearances, but do not let that dissuade you from rolling with him tonight in tournaments. Andrew Nembhard and Jalen Smith remain out, so Isaiah Jackson, Benedict Mathurin and Bruce Brown Jr. look fine as tertiary tournament targets.
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Additional NBA Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Jayson Tatum currently has a -107 line available for the under on his 43.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop. Per the -116 “True Odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a steady 4% expected ROI resulting from the inefficient line.
It is crucial to take advantage of OddsShopper to look at all the available lines since that can easily be worth another 2% to 3% ROI, even on perfectly neutral bets, based on how the different books value things. Looking at the screenshot below, the -137 line posted at Pinnacle with the same PRA demonstrates this very concept when compared to Unibet and BetRivers.
NBA Bet Pro has Tatum projected for 38.2 minutes 28.86 points, 9.29 rebounds and 3.912 assists for 42.06 PRA. The current available wager has a 54% win probability, which makes grabbing this offering at -106 a heady play.
The main thing going in Tatum’s favor is that Al Horford is out, Kristaps Porzingis doubtful and Jaylen Brown questionable. On the flipside, Orlando had a top-5 defensive efficiency rating while playing at a neutral pace over the last 10 games. Over his last dozen games, Tatum posted 44 or more PRA on just three occasions, though he does have three more games between 38 and 41. Betting on the unders is not as fun as rooting for overs, particularly since we have to sweat out the full game. But the sportsbooks are all too familiar with human nature and use it against us by pushing the lines to the limit.
Get ONE FREE MONTH of OddsShopper Premium, when you signed up through this link for BetMGM. There is also a First Wager bonus promotion of up to $1,500 back in credits if the bet loses. Check out this link for full details.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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