October 24 brings us NBA Opening Night, with gigantic contests on DraftKings and FanDuel. The action tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel, and there are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups. Will Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets repeat as NBA champions, or will the new-look Phoenix Suns with Bradley Beal or the Golden State Warriors with Chris Paul get in their way? Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Tuesday, October 24
Core Play of the Day — Nikola Jokic — Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 62.04 | FanDuel: 58.65
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 56.2% | FanDuel: 37.7%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $11,500
Congratulations to the Denver Nuggets on a well-deserved championship run! Of course, they also should be celebrating the third consecutive NBA MVP for Nikola Jokic, but this is no slight to Joel Embiid, who certainly had an MVP-caliber season. The last time we saw NBA DFS action, we were treated to tight rotations and all of the players at the apex of their physical stamina. That is not going to be the case tonight, as there will be ample fresh legs and no reason to overburden stars with 35-plus minutes since there are another 81 games to go after tonight.
The tradeoff of the tight playoff rotations was also intense defensive effort, something we do not see all that often in the regular season — well, other than marquee matchups or tight games in the fourth quarter. The takeaway is that even the apex stars tonight will likely play minutes in the low-30s, which is an easy 10% cut from what we will see 10 weeks from now.
For perspective, last year just 30 players who saw action in 60-plus regular season games also averaged more than 34 minutes per game. Wonkiness is going to be in play tonight, and that is important to remember, as we have only two games on the slate. That means we need to appropriately set expectations for tonight’s action. Now, the biggest equalizer is that with the GIGANTIC contests, the main DFS sites have loosened salaries in an effort to help mitigate mega-overlap while also giving casual gamers the ability to build lineups that are not trying to speculate which 10th man may nail a buzzer-beater at the end of the third quarter or luck into a rebound-block-steal-bucket combo in garbage time.
OK, back to Jokic. He rates out with a median fantasy point projection that is just over 10 points more than any other option across the different fantasy scoring formats. He also has the best fantasy-point-per-dollar ratio on DraftKings and the third best on FanDuel. Of course, on the blue site he has a 25-fantasy-point advantage over the other center-only options. FanDuel has been enlightened and incorporated multi-position eligibility into their game format, but centers are still a premium position.
If building only a handful of lineups on any platform, the savvy strategy will be to ride with Jokic and then figure out the rest of the roster. The 28-year-old superstar has the best fantasy-point-per-dollar rate on DraftKings, and he is third on FanDuel today.
The rest of the Nuggets rotation returns largely intact, with Bruce Brown Jr. (28.5 minutes per game) and Jeff Green (19.5) on other teams. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are coming into the season healthy, which is an early-season wrinkle that we seemingly have not seen in forever. That duo, along with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Aaron Gordon, are likely to see just over 30 minutes tonight.
Then we have questions with the back of the rotation. Reggie Jackson is probably going to play 15 to 17 minutes as the backup point guard, but keep in mind it is not a problem for Denver, as Jokic is one of the best passers in the league. Second-year man Christian Braun likely will get a couple more minutes than Jackson, and then the guessing game begins.
Anthony Davis — Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 46.03 | FanDuel: 47.06
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 24.5% | FanDuel: 19.1%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $8.900 | FanDuel: $11.200
In a fun soundbite, Anthony Davis has said he wants to play in all 82 regular season games. In a semi-related note, I would like to have a signature shoe deal with one of the big three athletic-wear companies.
This is the healthiest Davis will be all season, and even though he does not want to be considered or play the center position — which makes sense, as it is a grind battling through 40 pick-and-rolls per game on defense — he is likely to have that assignment tonight against Jokic. In an interesting twist, playing both Davis and Jokic on the same lineup is not as optimal as it may seem. On DraftKings the top projected lineup has a 7-point advantage over the best Davis-and-Jokic combo lineup. On FanDuel that disparity is just over 10 fantasy points. Now, that does not mean we should or should not pair this duo together, but it is just an interesting note.
LeBron James will be 39 years old in December, but he can still be one of the best players in the league during stretches of any game where he is healthy and there is something on the line. This season, more than ever, we should see coach Darvin Ham look to not overburden his dynamic duo with meaningless minutes. To wit, the back of the rotation has been swapped out with the newbies, including Gabe Vincent, Taurean Prince, Christian Wood, Cam Reddish and Jaxson Hayes.
Jarred Vanderbilt (heel) has been ruled out, which is another reason why Davis is likely to be at the center position tonight. Any one of Prince, Wood or Hayes could be in the starting five, with Rui Hachimura as a longshot. The Lakers are likely to roll 10-deep, but the second unit could see wild swings in minutes based on in-game situations and how well everyone is meshing together.
Austin Reaves was outstanding in the playoffs, but he is not going to get those same ridiculous 36.2 minutes tonight. Fellow backcourt starter D’Angelo Russell will be the primary ball-handler and battling Reaves for the third option on offense. Once we get beyond this pair and, of course, the dynamic duo, projecting minutes is a rather futile and chaotic effort.
Bradley Beal — Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 35.86 | FanDuel: 35.45
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 38.8% | FanDuel: 38.6%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $6,900 | FanDuel: $8,400
Well that was fun, about a half hour after this was posted, Bradley Beal (back) was ruled out and Devin Booker (toe) is questionable. Durant of course becomes the play and Nurkic should get an uptick in usage. Eric Gordon and Grayson Allen get a boost as well for minutes and field goal attempts. Welcome back to NBA DFS!
Phoenix is going to be a fun team to watch as coach Frank Vogel figures out how to best employ the new big three of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. This trio is likely to absorb around 75% of the usage for the team and potentially higher when they are all on the court together. Durant is now 35 years old, and while he is an amazing scorer, he is not as limber as he was five years ago. Booker and Beal will likely be the primary facilitators, and they are two of the best combo guards in the league.
The frontcourt is revamped with Deandre Ayton out and Jusuf Nurkic in, but do not expect the same scoring baseline for the former Portland Trail Blazer. The rebounding opportunities will be off the charts, and he should get tons of easy baskets, but Nurkic is a tertiary option at best with everyone healthy. He should flirt with a double-double most nights, but the 20-plus point outbursts are going to be few and far between on this squad.
Josh Okogie is likely to round out the first five, though he is more of a defensive presence and a low-usage player, which is a perfect role on the court for Phoenix but not so much for the DFS world. Eric Gordon and Grayson Allen will be the scoring off the bench, with Drew Eubanks getting the center minutes vacated by Nurkic and, of course, Durant, who can be the small-ball five with the closing unit and depending on the opponent.
Eubanks is an interesting punt play, as he does have the ability to contribute in a variety of ways, but he really would need two of the big three to be off the court to move up in the pecking order. Foul trouble for Nurkic or potentially Golden State running the Bosnian Bear off the court are the two main paths to Eubanks having a solid DFS night.
Jordan Goodwin, Yuta Watanabe and Keita Bates-Diop should at least set foot on the floor, but none is likely to see more than a handful of minutes. Chimezie Metu, Sabean Lee, Keon Johnson and Nassir Little will probably be left out in the cold on opening night.
Andrew Wiggins — Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 32.47 | FanDuel: 32.15
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 65.3% | FanDuel: 53.2%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $5,500 | FanDuel: $6,800
This is a solid price point for Andrew Wiggins, who is a key member of the nebulous Steve Kerr rotation due to his versatility. Draymond Green is out with a sprained ankle, so that should increase the rebounding opportunities for the former top selection of the 2014 NBA Draft. Stephen Curry will celebrate his 36th birthday this season and Klay Thompson is turning 34, so Wiggins is part of the “youth movement” even though he is 27 himself.
Wiggins was away from the team for quite some time last year attending to a family matter, though he was back for the playoffs. Gamers may underestimate his role tonight, though judging from the early popularity projection, he is going to be well represented in tournaments.
Kevon Looney should get close to 30 minutes with Green out, though we already have ample options at the pivot position. Jonathan Kuminga should see plenty of action as well, and there is a chance he will end up in the starting lineup. This is a make-or-break season for the enigmatic talent, so hopefully he rises to the occasion.
Chris Paul is the other option for the starting lineup as the future Hall of Famer suits up for his seventh different Western Conference squad. It will be interesting to see how much time he and Curry share outside of closing situations since they are one of the oldest and smallest backcourt duos in the league.
Gary Payton II should get at least 15 minutes for his defensive presence, but his fantasy production is mercurial to say the least, as he is not much of a scorer. Moses Moody and Dario Saric should also take the court, though it could be for anywhere from eight to 18 minutes, depending on the whims of coach Kerr.
It would be a shock to see Cory Joseph or Brandin Podziemski leave the bench, but we could see Usman Garuba get some frontcourt minutes, depending on the foul situations for Looney, Kuminga and Saric.
Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
While we should be building around Jokic in the DFS world, we can hedge things a little in on the sports wagering side with his 26.5 points prop.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Jokic projected for 35.0 minutes and 26.2 points. Looking at the “True Odds” feature as shown on OddsShopper, the -115 under indicates a slightly advantageous line, with an expected positive ROI of nearly 5%. While it is not fun for most people rooting for unders, last year in the regular season, Jokic averaged 24.5 points per game, and he averaged 26.0 points over the last three years. That was also while getting significant time without both Murray and Porter to share the scoring workload, which is not the case tonight.
All we need is a couple errant shots, a teammate with a hot hand or Jokic still playing himself into shape and falling a couple minutes short of his projected run, and we should be sitting pretty. Through his first 10 games last year, Jokic had 27 or more points twice; in 2022 he topped that mark twice as well in the same timeframe, and in 2021 he reached that threshold once in the first 10 tilts. Enjoy!
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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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