NBA Player Props: Jokic Looks to Repeat Sharpshooting (May 18)

The high-flying Lakers-Nuggets series hits Game 2 tonight, and the NBA player props are still looking lively on NBA Bet Pro. There are a handful of high-EV bets on the board today. Right now we are going to take a look at the three best ones out there, but keep in mind that there are 24 other +EV plays in the model at the moment. So don’t forget that you can subscribe to NBA Bet Pro today and get a free trial week to access all of these NBA player props with positive ROIs!

Today’s Top NBA Player Props From NBA Bet Pro | May 18

3. Nikola Jokic Under 1.5 3-Pointers (-186, BetRivers)

Jokic is coming off one of his best long-range shooting performances of the season. He only took three 3’s, but he made them all — and this was the first time all year that he made 100% of his 3’s on at least three attempts. Now, Jokic only averaged 2.2 attempts during the regular season, his lowest number since 2017, and he made just 0.8 of them per game. It has jumped to 1.8 on 3.6 attempts in the playoffs, but does anyone really expect him to maintain 50% 3-point shooting long-term?

NBA Bet Pro is playing for the regression today, projecting Jokic for just 0.8 made 3’s tonight. And though the juice is substantial at -186, the 69% expected win rate bumps the ROI all the way to 7%.

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2. Austin Reaves Over 0.5 Blocks (+370, DraftKings)

It is exceptionally rare for NBA Bet Pro to recommend a play that has less than a 30% expected win rate. Truth be told, it is rare for one below 40% to have an EV this high. But Reaves’ odds to get a block are so outrageous at +370 that NBA Bet Pro is jumping on it despite the 23% win expectancy.

Reaves only has three blocks in the postseason, two of which came in one game, but given D’Angelo Russell’s defensive struggles in Game 1, Reaves is going to play a lot tonight. NBA Bet Pro projects him for 39.3 minutes, and a lot of that will be spent guarding ball handlers like Jamal Murray and cutters like Bruce Brown. There will be opportunities for blocks, and he only needs to connect on one to pay off super-long odds.

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1. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 2.5 Rebounds (-121, BetRivers)

Though it seems like Jokic is sucking up all of Denver’s rebound chances, Caldwell-Pope is averaging a solid 3.2 per game in the postseason. He has only exceeded this line of 2.5 rebounds in half of his playoff games, but it is worth noting Caldwell-Pope’s minutes projection on NBA Bet Pro (33.1), which dwarf the 24.6 projected for Brown. Plus, given the Lakers’ defensive adjustments in the fourth quarter of Game 1, Denver will need someone who can knock down 3’s, and Caldwell-Pope is the Nuggets’ best catch-and-shoot option by a wide margin.

He will be on the floor a lot, and the high-flying nature of this series means rebounding opportunities. NBA Bet Pro projects Caldwell-Pope to grab 3.0 boards, giving the over a 60% win expectancy and a game-high 10% EV.

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.