Best ball summer continues to heat up as training camp approaches. Players’ ADPs have begun to solidify, but a few running backs still stand out as strong values to take a shot on in the middle rounds. Let’s get into this year’s high-upside running backs for 2023 NFL Best Ball leagues, using projections and Stokastic’s Best Ball rankings.
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NFL Best Ball 2023 High-Upside Running Backs: Antonio Gibson, Rachaad White
Rachaad White (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Rachaad White comes off the board with an ADP of 85.7 on Underdog Fantasy. This puts him at RB27 overall, just behind Dalvin Cook and David Montgomery. He comes off the board just ahead of James Conner. However, at this point in the offseason, there’s reason to project White ahead of all of these rushers.
Drafted out of Arizona State in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft, White stands 6-foor-2 and weighs 210 pounds. White also put up a solid rookie season behind Leonard Fournette. He carried the rock 129 times for 481 yards while catching 50 passes for another 290. White also showed the ability to work in a larger role. Over a two-week stretch between Week 10 and Week 12 (Week 11 bye), White handled 20-plus touches. More importantly, White showed the ability to handle a strong pass-catching role. He caught at least four balls in five of the last six weeks of the season, excluding Week 18.
Moving forward to this year, the Buccaneers no longer have Fournette on the roster. This leaves a running back room occupied by White himself, Chase Edmonds, Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Sean Tucker. Edmonds and Vaughn have both failed to carve out meaningful roles of late. Edmonds fumbled the bag in Miami and ended up getting traded. Vaughn has never carved out a role in his three years with Tampa Bay. Tucker proved productive at Syracuse, but he is an undersized rookie at 5-9 and 207 pounds. He also went undrafted, meaning the team has very little invested in his future.Â
Overall, Tampa Bay doesn’t project to be very good in 2023. Their win total sits at 6.5, and they have a quarterback competition between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask. However, White’s volume in the receiving game makes up for some of the offensive deficiencies. Looking at the other runners in this range, Dalvin Cook remains unsigned with plenty of uncertainty, David Montgomery will be locked into a timeshare in Detroit and James Conner occupies a similar role but at an advanced age with a lengthy injury history. Tampa Bay has been linked to a few free agents, but that presents the only risk to White. Even in that situation, White projects to retain his pass-catching role, making him a value at his current ADP.
Overall, our rankings have White at RB28. However, he still comes in as an ADP value, even with our rankings leaving the door open to another running back addition sometime this summer.
Javonte Williams (Denver Broncos)
Javonte Williams currently comes off the board with an ADP of 94, making him the RB29 on Underdog Fantasy. Williams now enters his third season after coming off the board in 35th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. Williams measures 5-10 and 220 pounds with feature back traits. However, he tore his ACL, LCL and PCL in Week 4 of the 2023 season. With the injury clouding his upcoming season, Williams has fallen all the way into the middle rounds in best ball drafts.
Addressing the injury first, Williams already returned to limited practice in OTAs this May. He practiced individual drills with a knee brace already this May. With another three months to prepare for the season and rehab the knee, Williams currently remains on track for Week 1.
Statistically, Williams has already shown strong production in the NFL. Prior to his injury last season, he had rushed for 294 yards on 47 carries while catching 16 balls. He handled at least 19 touches in each of the first three games before the injury. Williams also proved productive as a rookie in 2021 with 903 rushing yards and 43 receptions.
This year, the Broncos braced for a potentially slow start from Williams with the signing in of Samaje Perine. Perine himself put up 394 yards on 94 carries while catching 38 balls with Cincinnati last year. Although Perine didn’t log elite efficiency numbers, he proved capable of handling a workload in a pinch. With that said, Williams being ready sooner rather than later just gives Denver more options.
Overall, Denver’s win total still sits at 8.5, making them competitive in the AFC West. Denver beat reporter Cecil Lammey expects the Broncos to take a run-heavy approach in 2023, which makes sense given their roster. The team signed Sean Payton as their new head coach, who also took a run-heavy approach with New Orleans following the retirement of Drew Brees. Russell Wilson also regressed severely in 2022, making the passing game increasingly risky.
Right now, Williams comes in ranked 22nd among running backs in our rankings. This will change if negative reporting about his recovery emerges this summer. However, allowing Williams to practice in May only bodes well for the future. Williams should remain an ADP value all throughout the summer.
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Antonio Gibson (Washington Commanders)
Commanders running back Antonio Gibson currently comes off the board with an ADP of 103.6 as the RB34 in Underdog drafts. Gibson measures 6-2 and 220 pounds. He now enters his fourth season after getting drafted with the second pick in the third round. The Commanders added Brian Robinson to the backfield last year, but there is still the potential for Gibson to pay off this ADP.
Last year, Gibson rushed 149 times for 546 yards, while catching a career-high 46 balls for 353 yards. Prior to that, Gibson rushed for 1,037 yards and caught 42 balls as the feature back in 2021. Conversely, Robinson proved to be a league-average caliber back in his rookie year. Robinson rushed 205 times for 797 yards (3.9 yards per carry) while catching just nine passes. Among running backs with at least 100 carries, Robinson ranked 38th in yards after contact.
It should be noted that Gibson played through injury during most of the last two seasons. He even had surgery to fix a foot issue that plagued him through much of 2022. With a return to full health, there’s a chance that Gibson straight-up beats out Robinson for this job. Coming out of college, Gibson looked like one of the most explosive backs in his class. He registered an elite 4.39 40-yard dash and has the size necessary to handle a featured role.
Even if Robinson maintains his early-down status, Gibson’s pass-catching role provides immense value in the mid-rounds. With some combination of Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett under center, Washington doesn’t project for many wins in 2023, and if they trail often, Gibson should be the back left on the field.
Overall, our rankings slot in Gibson at RB31, ahead of his ADP. He comes off the board just behind AJ Dillon and ahead of Samaje Perine. Both backs require an injury to unlock their ceiling, while Gibson could flat-out win the job. Expect our rankings to come in ahead of ADP on Gibson throughout the summer.
