The Stokastic NFL boom/bust probability tool is a useful resource to help identify high-upside NFL DFS picks for Week 5 that can give us the best chance of winning big-dollar contests on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel. Once more information on player availability comes out, we will post an update later on Sunday morning to see how the data has shifted.
See below for a quick refresher on Stokastic’s NFL DFS boom/bust tool, along with explanations of what each column represents. We’ll mainly be referencing boom and bust percentages while we search for the highest-upside plays that can help win us Week 5 DFS tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Boom%: Probability of achieving positional target score based on chance of being the top 1 QB, top 2 RB, etc.
Bust%: Probability of failing to achieve positional value – 2 fantasy points.
Ceiling: 75th percentile performance.
Floor: 25th percentile performance.
Optimal%: Probability that player will be in the perfect lineup that slate.
NFL DFS Picks – Week 5 High-Upside Boom Plays
As Stokastic will continue to finalize NFL player projections as more news is released, the boom and bust probability data is sure to fluctuate here and there.
Let’s get to a closer examination of more of the noteworthy boom and bust probabilities for Week 5 NFL DFS.
Week 5 NFL DFS Boom Plays – Final Update
Noon ET: We have had another projections update. Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery, Travis Kelce, Kalif Raymond and Bijan Robinson are the top five boom probabilities on DraftKings in the latest look.
Here’s the full data at the top of the DK pool:
You can look through the full data for DraftKings and FanDuel for all positions on the NFL boom and bust probability page.
Be sure to also check out Stokastic’s other Week 5 tools before lock:
🏈 Stokastic YouTube (LIVE)
🏈 NFL Contest Sims
🏈 NFL Homepage
🏈 NFL Lineup Generator
🏈 NFL Player Projections
🏈 NFL Ownership Projections
🏈 NFL Top Stacks Tool
🏈 Stokastic Discord
Week 5 NFL DFS Boom Plays – Sunday Update #1
10:00 AM ET: News continues to filter in and Stokastic’s NFL player projections for Week 5 have been updated.
Here is a look at the top five boom probabilities across all positions on DraftKings:
And on FanDuel:
You can look through the full data for all positions on the NFL boom and bust probability page.
Be sure to also check out Stokastic’s other Week 5 tools:
🏈 Stokastic YouTube (LIVE)
🏈 NFL Contest Sims
🏈 NFL Homepage
🏈 NFL Lineup Generator
🏈 NFL Player Projections
🏈 NFL Ownership Projections
🏈 NFL Top Stacks Tool
🏈 Stokastic Discord
Quarterback: Tua Tagovailoa
DraftKings – $7,100; 11.4% Boom | FanDuel – $8,000; 11.7% Boom
Jalen Hurts is also rating out highly in boom probability for Week 5, especially over on FanDuel, but Tua Tagovailoa is being backed by projections too and gets the nod at quarterback for this writeup. Tagovailoa and the Dolphins are favored by 12.5 points at home against the New York Giants, who have been a disaster all over the field early on this season, and the quarterback has a boom probability in the 11-12% range on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Miami has an implied team total of 30 points for Sunday, tops on the NFL schedule just ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, so obviously Tagovailoa and company are also ranking highly in team stackability. The Dolphins QB has a plethora of weapons at his disposal, namely Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, and will be eager to right the ship after a disappointing Week 4 loss to Buffalo.
Running Back: David Montgomery
DraftKings – $6,600; 22.8% Boom | FanDuel – $8,500; 13.6% Boom
With the Lions dealing with a few injuries to key personnel, David Montgomery could be relied upon even more than normal for Week 5’s home matchup with the Carolina Panthers. As of now, the bruising back has the highest boom probability at the running back position on DraftKings at his salary of $6,600, while taking up the third spot behind Joe Mixon and Bijan Robinson on FanDuel at his higher $8,500 price.
Montgomery has already totaled 69 carries for 262 rushing yards and five touchdowns in only three 2023 appearances, and he’s in another prime spot to succeed against the Panthers. Jahmyr Gibbs has been downgraded to doubtful for Sunday, and top wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown isn’t expected to be active either, meaning we should be seeing another heavy dose of Montgomery. Detroit is currently implied for a shade under 27 points in spite of the injuries.
Wide Receiver: Ja’Marr Chase
DraftKings – $7,900; 17.8% Boom | FanDuel – $8,700; 14.9% Boom
We discussed Ja’Marr Chase in our wide receiver series earlier in the week, and he is looking even stronger in NFL player projections now than he did earlier in the week. That’s partially because of the injury to teammate Tee Higgins, who is expected to be out for Sunday’s road game versus the Arizona Cardinals.
Chase hasn’t come anywhere close to the huge DFS ceiling we’ve seen out of him in the past, and he let his frustrations out after last week’s loss to the Titans. We will have to see if Joe Burrow gets the hint and is able to link up with his favorite receiver for a boom game in Week 5. The LSU product, who has a strong 29.7% target share on the year, is right at the top in DraftKings boom probability and is third behind only Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill for Sunday.
Tight End: Sam LaPorta
DraftKings – $5,000; 24.6% Boom | FanDuel – $6,000; 21.4% Boom
Rookie Sam LaPorta has wasted no time making an impression in the NFL. Picked 34th overall, he has immediately stamped out a huge role in the Lions offense, and quarterback Jared Goff has been looking his direction early and often. LaPorta has 22 receptions on 27 targets for 242 yards and a touchdown with a 22.4% target share and 80% snap rate through Detroit’s first four matchups.
As for Week 5 against the Panthers, we mentioned the injuries, which could lead to more opportunities for LaPorta as well. Amon-Ra St. Brown is doubtful and Josh Reynolds is currently questionable — if either or both were to miss out, that would be a lot of pass-catching production that would need to be divvied up among the active group. LaPorta is currently beating out Travis Kelce (and the rest of the player pool) in boom probability on DraftKings and is right on his heels in the second spot on FanDuel.
Latest NFL DFS Content
NFL DFS Picks – Week 5 Lower-Upside Situations
Using the boom/bust tool, we can gain insight into which players and teams may be in more unfavorable positions for each NFL DFS slate. Each week we will take a look at two seemingly less exciting games to see what the player-level boom and bust data shows.
Ravens/Steelers
This Ravens/Steelers matchup has the week’s lowest total at 38 points as Lamar Jackson tries to keep the good times rolling after Baltimore easily dispatched Cleveland 28-3 last week. Pittsburgh will be aiming to bounce back after a brutal 30-6 road loss to Houston.
If we move to the individual boom and bust probability data for this AFC North battle, Mark Andrews (9.3%), George Pickens (6.0%) and Steelers D/ST (5.6%) are the top three in boom ratings on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Ravens D/ST (5.6%), Mark Andrews (5.7%) and Steelers D/ST (5.4%) are in the first three spots in boom probability.
At QB, Jackson has a 0.9% boom probability and 64.5% bust probability on DraftKings, with Kenny Pickett at 1.5% and 44.6% respectively.
Saints/Patriots
Another game that many DFS players on DraftKings and FanDuel will be avoiding, the Patriots welcome the Saints to Foxborough, with the over/under at 39.5 points.
Individually, we find Alvin Kamara (10.5%), Saints D/ST (8.8%), Patriots D/ST (7.2%), Rhamondre Stevenson (5.6%) and DeVante Parker (4.8%) with the top five highest boom probabilities on DraftKings. As for the two quarterbacks, New England’s Mac Jones is at a 3.3% boom probability and 36.5% bust probability on DK, while Derek Carr is at a 2.3% boom probability and 48.5% bust probability.
We highly recommend going through the full data set for all positions to help you gain an edge in your NFL DFS prep for Week 5.
Be sure to stay glued to player news and projection updates leading up to lock so you can make the most informed lineup decisions possible. A lot could change in the data as more information comes out, so we will add an update to the top of this article as we get closer to kickoff.
As a general reminder, projections are one piece of the NFL DFS puzzle and other factors like projected ownership, roster construction and game theory should be considered when constructing daily fantasy football lineups for Week 5.
More Stokastic NFL DFS Week 5 Tools 🏈
NFL Contest Sims
NFL Homepage
NFL Lineup Generator
NFL Player Projections
NFL Ownership Projections
NFL Boom/Bust Probability
NFL Top Stacks Tool
Stokastic YouTube
Stokastic Discord
