The Stokastic NFL boom/bust probability tool is a useful resource to help identify high-upside NFL DFS picks for Week 6 that can give us the best chance of winning big-dollar contests on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel.
Once more information on player availability comes out, we will post an update later on Sunday to see how the data has shifted.
NFL DFS Picks – Week 6 High-Upside Boom Plays
See below for a quick refresher on Stokastic’s NFL DFS boom/bust tool, along with explanations of what each column represents. We’ll mainly be referencing boom and bust percentages while we search for the highest-upside plays that can help win us Week 6 DFS tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Boom%: Probability of achieving positional target score based on chance of being the top 1 QB, top 2 RB, etc.
Bust%: Probability of failing to achieve positional value – 2 fantasy points.
Ceiling: 75th percentile performance.
Floor: 25th percentile performance.
Optimal%: Probability that player will be in the perfect lineup that slate.
Let’s get to a closer examination of more of the noteworthy boom and bust probabilities for Week 6 NFL DFS.
NFL DFS Upside Picks – Week 6 Sunday Update
Noon ET: NFL player projections are being finalized for Week 6 DFS.
DraftKings: Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill, Christian Kirk, Ja’Marr Chase and T.J. Hockenson have the five highest boom probabilities across all positions on DK.
FanDuel: The top five non-DST spots belong to T.J. Hockenson, Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams and Ja’Marr Chase.
We highly encourage going through the full boom and bust probability data for ALL positions before lineups lock on DK and FD.
More Stokastic Week 6 NFL DFS Tools 🏈
Stokastic YouTube (LIVE)
NFL Contest Sims
NFL Homepage
NFL Lineup Generator
NFL Player Projections
NFL Ownership Projections
NFL Boom/Bust Probability
NFL Top Stacks Tool
Stokastic Discord
Quarterback: Matthew Stafford
DraftKings – $6,100; 11.3% Boom | FanDuel – $7,300; 8.2% Boom
In boom probability ratings for Week 6, Matthew Stafford is the leader of the pack at the quarterback position on DraftKings and is in the second spot on FanDuel behind only Tua Tagovailoa.
The Rams, who have an implied team total of 28 points for Sunday’s home date with the Cardinals, are rating out as one of the most appealing in Week 6 team stackability, so it’s understandable seeing Stafford sticking out at his $6,100 price on DK. With Cooper Kupp back and looking as good as ever, and rookie Puka Nacua quickly emerging as another huge threat in the passing game (plus Tutu Atwell and Tyler Higbee), Stafford has a legit skill group to work with.
Stafford is the only QB over a 10% boom mark on DraftKings right now, though DFS players will have to consider his ownership projection of 14.0% — the veteran is currently showing as optimal 11.7% of the time on DK. On FanDuel, the Rams quarterback is at an 8.2% boom mark to go with 11.9% projected ownership.
Running Back: Raheem Mostert
DraftKings – $6,400; 21.1% Boom | FanDuel – $8,500; 10.2% Boom
At time of writing, Raheem Mostert is grading out as the top overall running back in terms of boom probability on DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 6’s game against the Panthers. In fact, Mostert has the highest boom rating of the entire player pool on DK.
Mostert had 10 rushes for 65 yards and a touchdown as well as two catches for 13 yards in Week 5’s straightforward 31-16 win over the Giants. This Sunday he’s likely to dominate the touches out of the backfield with De’Von Achane out of the picture, and he has been getting consistent looks in the pass game and a lot of red-zone opportunities.
The Dolphins RB is priced up on FanDuel but is still north of a 10% boom probability, while on DraftKings he’s down at $6,400 with a massive 21.1% boom probability. Mostert is projected for 25.1% ownership on Stokastic yet is showing in the optimal lineup 27.9% of the time, giving him a positive 2.8% leverage mark on DK. On FD his leverage moves to -1.9%.
Wide Receiver: Ja’Marr Chase
DraftKings – $8,300; 16.3% Boom | FanDuel – $9,300; 13.2% Boom
Cooper Kupp and Tyreek Hill are weekly boom options and are great NFL DFS picks as well, but Ja’Marr Chase gets the slight nod in boom probability, at least on DraftKings for Week 6. It’s a little more muddled on FanDuel where Chase is not grading out as quite as well in terms of point-per-dollar value.
Chase had a monster Week 5 after a frustrating start to his season, piling up close to 200 receiving yards and reaching the end zone three times. His 32.4% target share for 2023 is the third most among wide receivers (trailing Kupp, who’s played one game, and Davante Adams) and his quarterback, Joe Burrow, is as healthy and productive as he’s been all season.
It will be interesting to see whether or not teammate Tee Higgins is able to give it a go — he’s expected to return but is officially questionable on the injury report. Either way, Chase is in another favorable position to pile up fantasy points in Week 6 against Seattle. Ownership will be particularly high on DraftKings for the Bengals’ number one wideout, with Chase at a 24.4% ownership projection as of Sunday AM.
Tight End: T.J. Hockenson
DraftKings – $6,600; 14.2% Boom | FanDuel – $6,700; 17.9% Boom
It’s a rather clear choice at tight end, considering how ugly the position is this week. Yes, he’s the most expensive option on the board, but no other tight ends are all that close to T.J. Hockenson in NFL DFS projections for Week 6. He has the highest boom probability at TE on both sites and has the most boom potential of the whole player pool on FanDuel.
The Vikings will be without star receiver Justin Jefferson (29.8% target share on the year) for at least a month, so the onus will be put on the rest of the offense to pick up the slack. Hockenson has already earned a 19.4% target share through the first five weeks, and that number has a great chance of moving even higher with Jefferson sidelined, beginning this weekend versus the Bears.
There is some concern about the potential of inclement weather in Chicago, so that is something we will have to check on as we closer to kickoff.
NFL DFS Picks – Week 6 Lower-Upside Situations
Using the boom/bust tool, we can gain insight into which players and teams may be in more unfavorable positions for NFL DFS. Each week we will take a look at two seemingly less exciting games to see what the player-level boom and bust data shows.
49ers/Browns
The 49ers have been unstoppable to start the season and have to be feeling good about their chances of remaining undefeated against the Browns, who will be without Deshaun Watson. Current weather forecasts for this Week 6 matchup show the potential for wind and rain throughout, which is another factor we will have to monitor before lock.
P.J. Walker is set to get the start at quarterback for the hosts, and Cleveland is implied for a mere 13 points while being a huge 10-point underdog. The Browns will need to make this game as ugly as possible and get another strong defensive effort to have any chance of toppling a 49ers team that’s scored at least 30 points in every game this season.
If we move to the individual boom and bust probability data for SF and CLE, Christian McCaffrey (6.9%), Brandon Aiyuk (5.6%), 49ers D/ST (5.3%), Deebo Samuel (4.8%) and Browns D/ST (4.4%) are in the top five. Walker and Brock Purdy are at 0.1% and 1.7% boom probabilities respectively.
Eagles/Jets
New York welcomes Philadelphia in Week 6 looking to pick up consecutive wins after a Week 5 triumph in Denver. Zach Wilson and company are currently implied for right around 18 points and are 6.5-point underdogs in the NFL odds against Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and the Eagles.
The big news here is injuries in the Jets secondary, as the team’s two best corners, Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, will both be out for this game. That’s a pretty brutal development considering Week 6’s opposing wide receiver group. We will have to see if Brown (31.9% target share) and Smith (22.2%) can exploit those absences.
So how do the boom probabilities on DraftKings look for this Sunday’s game at MetLife Stadium? The Eagles D/ST (8.0%) are at the top of the DK boom data, with Garrett Wilson at 6.5%. Brown at 5.9% and Dallas Goedert at 5.7%.
We highly recommend going through the full data set for all positions to help you gain an edge in your NFL DFS prep for Week 6.
Latest NFL DFS Content
Be sure to stay glued to player news and projection updates leading up to lock so you can make the most informed lineup decisions possible. A lot could change in the data as more information comes out, so we will add an update to the top of this article as we get closer to kickoff.
As a general reminder, projections are one piece of the NFL DFS puzzle and other factors like projected ownership, roster construction and game theory should be considered when constructing daily fantasy football lineups for Week 6.
More Stokastic Week 6 NFL DFS Tools 🏈
NFL Contest Sims
NFL Homepage
NFL Lineup Generator
NFL Player Projections
NFL Ownership Projections
NFL Boom/Bust Probability
NFL Top Stacks Tool
Stokastic YouTube
Stokastic Discord
