As is custom, Underdog Fantasy is offering yet another great free square to get Week 7 entries going. AND it has a couple of other boosts on some other plays that you have to check out, on top of the crazy Underdog + OddsShopper promo for new users: Get your first deposit DOUBLED on Underdog up to $500! Now, with all that in mind, let’s take a look at how we can apply all these offers to Underdog Fantasy’s NFL pick’em contest for Week 7.
NFL Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions | Week 7
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Lamar Jackson H/L 0.5 Total Yards
Heads up: Underdog is actually offering TWO quarterback free squares this week, one for the main slate and one for the Monday Night Football matchup. We will cover Kirk Cousins and the Vikings on Monday, so for this space Jackson earn the top spot once again.
It’s not like Jackson’s rushing ability really enhances his ability to get a single yard, but it does help us cover our bases in the event something happens to his throwing arm or there’s a snowstorm in Baltimore out of nowhere. The point is that this should be the starting point for all entries on Underdog this week (or you can turn to Cousins higher than 0.5 total yards, but you can only pick one of these two).
Best NFL Underdog Fantasy Play: Lamar Jackson Higher Than 0.5 Total Yards
Mike Evans H/L 58.5 Receiving Yards
This Falcons-Buccaneers has the lowest total on the slate and Evans is not exactly on a heater right now, but this number seems low. Though he struggled the last two weeks, Evans has gone over 58.5 in three of five games, and he also saw 10 targets last time out despite only finishing with 49 yards. Reports of Evans’ demise have been greatly exaggerated.
The big thing here is Evans being Baker Mayfield’s favorite option. Chris Godwin has more catches, but Evans has seen more targets and a considerably higher average depth of target, so Evans can get to this number on fewer chances. Plus, even with a lower game total, Mayfield projects for 36.2 pass attempts and 252.8 yards passing, both eighth most on the week. Evans, meanwhile, projects to see 9.0 of those attempts and catch 5.5 for 78.1 yards. With a projection almost 20 yards above his higher/lower number, Evans has a 53% chance of exceeding 58.5 in the Stokastic model.
Best NFL Underdog Fantasy Play: Mike Evans Higher Than 58.5 Receiving Yards
Rachaad White H/L 48.5 Rushing Yards
Sticking with the Buccaneers, White’s projections are reaping the consequences of Stokastic viewing Tampa as more pass-happy than linemakers believe. It doesn’t help his case that White has only gone over this line in two of five games despite being by far the team’s most-used back — he has 70 carries compared to 30 combined from Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Sean Tucker. White’s efficiency is really hurting him, with his 3.3 yards per carry ranking 38th among 45 eligible rushers.
Now he is in a game environment that is not expected to favor him. It should be evenly matched — Tampa is a 2.5-point home favorite — and Stokastic believes the Buccaneers will throw the ball a decent amount. Atlanta also has the No. 4 run defense and No. 3 tackling unit according to Pro Football Focus, and that strength up front has Stokastic projecting White to actually stay below his already-bad yards per carry (39.1 yards on 12.3 attempts, 3.17 per). All together, this gives White a 56% chance of staying below 48.5 yards rushing, the highest win expectancy of any non-free square play.
Best NFL Underdog Fantasy Play: Rachaad White Lower Than 48.5 Rushing Yards
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