In this weekly series, we will take a closer look at the top NFL DFS running backs and fades for the upcoming daily fantasy football slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Based on Stokastic’s NFL player projections data, where should we focus our attention when making our NFL DFS picks and building our lineups?
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Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks & Fades for Week 7
NFL player projections for the Week 7 main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel are out, so let’s see how the Stokastic data is looking at this point in the week. All in all, it’s a tougher week at RB given the shorter slate of main slate games.
Before lineups lock, we’ll add an update to this article on Sunday morning overviewing how the DFS projections have shifted at the running back position.
NFL DFS Picks | Week 7 DraftKings & FanDuel Running Backs
Sunday Update: On FanDuel, the top five boom probabilities at RB are Josh Jacobs, Kenneth Walker, Jahmyr Gibbs, Isiah Pacheco and Aaron Jones. On DraftKings, it’s Kenneth Walker, Josh Jacobs, Rachaad White, Isiah Pacheco and D’Onta Foreman in the top five for Week 7 NFL DFS. Go through all the data to find the best values at all price ranges.
Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks
At time of writing, Kenneth Walker has been given the highest NFL DFS boom probability at the running back position for Week 7 NFL DFS on DraftKings and FanDuel. This data point, available for every relevant player on the slate if you are a Stokastic+ subscriber, measures how likely players are to meet their ceilings and floors, relative to their median projections.
Walker and the Seahawks enter Sunday’s home date with the Cardinals favored by eight points, with an implied team total of 26 points. That’s the second-highest mark on the main slate behind only Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Seattle is expected to get back on track after last week’s disappointing loss in Cincinnati, and a favorable game script would put Walker in a great position to pay off his DFS salaries of $7,000 on DraftKings and $8,800 on FanDuel.
When we check out the Kenneth Walker odds, bets and player props page on OddsShopper, his rushing yards prop is at 80.5 yards and his anytime touchdown line is right around -155.
Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns
If looking for a cheaper option, Jerome Ford could be worth a look at $5,100 on DraftKings and $6,600 on FanDuel. He owns the third-highest DraftKings boom probability at the position at 6.7% but that number drops a tad when moving to FanDuel (2.7%, eighth best among RBs).
Ford has taken on a sizable role out of the backfield with Nick Chubb done for the year. He didn’t hit his ceiling in Week 6, as Kareem Hunt totaled 71 yards from scrimmage and scored a touchdown in the 19-17 win over the 49ers, but was still effective with his touches. Ford rushed 17 times for 84 yards and added a couple of receptions for seven yards in the victory.
As we mentioned, Ford is grading out a little better over on DraftKings, where he’s currently hitting 19.4% of optimal lineups and has a positive leverage mark of 2.0% based on Stokastic’s simulations (12.5% optimal rate on FD). Per OddsShopper, Ford has a rushing yards prop of 54.5 yards and he’s +140 to reach the endzone this Sunday on the road against the Colts.
Other running backs with a boom probability over 5% on DraftKings include Josh Jacobs (6.8%) against the Bears and Isiah Pacheco (5.9%) against the Chargers.
On FanDuel, it’s Kenneth Walker, Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Jacobs, Isiah Pacheco and Aaron Jones that have the five highest boom probabilities at the RB position. Be sure to go through the full NFL DFS data at all of the various price ranges ahead of kickoff!
NFL DFS Fades | Week 7 DraftKings & FanDuel Running Backs
Joshua Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers
For some reason, Joshua Kelley is still priced at $5,200 on DraftKings and $5,600 on FanDuel. Austin Ekeler is back and instantly reclaimed his bellcow role last week, so Kelley’s relevance for DFS has all but disappeared for now. He played only 27% of the snaps in Week 6, finishing with one carry for two yards in a loss to the Cowboys.
The price adjustment hasn’t been large enough for Kelley heading into this Sunday, as Week 7 NFL DFS projections have the Chargers back at a 99.0% bust probability on DraftKings and 95.8% bust probability on FanDuel for the highly anticipated showdown with the Chiefs.
This will be a popular game to target in general, and we will have to do more digging than normal at the RB position because of the limited high-upside options, but there are far better places to look with your NFL DFS running back picks.
Other RBs that do not rank all that highly in Week 7 NFL DFS projections include the Colts’ tandem of Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, who have been splitting work and have a tough assignment on deck against the Browns. Taylor has a 66.2% bust probability at $6,500 on DraftKings and Moss is at an 83.5% bust probability at $6,200.
If Aaron Jones (questionable) is able to return against the Broncos, AJ Dillon’s DFS value takes a hit, and he’s at a 60.4% bust probability on DraftKings for Week 7.
There is some important injury news we are waiting on, so it will be critical to monitor any updates that come in all the way through Sunday to see if better NFL DFS picks and running back values open up before lock.
We should also remember that accurate NFL DFS player projections are just one piece of the daily fantasy football puzzle and that other factors like projected ownership, roster construction and game theory should be considered when building lineups.
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