New customers have it really good with Underdog Fantasy in Week 9: They are offering another free square to build entries around! Plus, Stokastic has identified a handful of great running back leverage options for NFL pick’em plays, and just in time for Underdog’s awesome promo for new users: Get your first deposit DOUBLED on Underdog up to $500! Now, with all that value, let’s take a look at how we can apply all these offers to Underdog Fantasy’s NFL pick’em contest for Week 9.
NFL Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions | Week 9
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Lamar Jackson H/L 0.5 Total Yards (NEW CUSTOMER SPECIAL)
This week’s New Customer Special is, as usual, an extreme dual-threat quarterback from the 1 p.m. ET docket:
New Underdog Fantasy users, if you want to get in on Week 9 NFL pick’em, this is the place to start. Stokastic’s Underdog link will enter the code STOKASTIC13 for you, and that will give you the promo offer of a $500 deposit match! All that’s left to do then is use some of that to start an entry, beginning with Lamar Jackson to record more than 0.5 total yards.
Jackson has never in his career failed to record a yard in a game he started, so for your first ever Underdog play, it will be nice to know you can take at least one pick to the bank.
Best NFL Underdog Fantasy Play: Lamar Jackson Higher Than 0.5 Total Yards
Ezekiel Elliott H/L 6.5 Receiving Yards
Look, the receiving numbers for Elliott are not pretty; he has a mere 57 yards despite seeing 17 targets and catching 13 of them through eight games. Plus, only two of those targets and one of the receptions came in New England’s last three games.
But …
The nice thing about a 6.5-yard receiving target is Elliott may only need one catch to get there. Twice this year he has recorded 7 yards receiving or more on just one target, and he exceeded 6.5 another two times to bring him to a 50% win rate on this higher play. Plus, the snap share with Rhamondre Stevenson, while clearly favoring the latter, is not so stark as to make Elliott a non-factor in the pass game. He has 84 receiving snaps to Stevenson’s 171, which is a little more than 10 routes a game. Expecting a target for Elliott on two of those seems viable, and one catch should be enough to at least get close to the 7-yard mark.
This week Stokastic projects Elliott for right around two catches on 2.6 targets for 12.4 yards, which gives higher than 6.5 a 56% chance of winning.
Best NFL Underdog Fantasy Play: Ezekiel Elliott Higher Than 6.5 Receiving Yards
Austin Ekeler H/L 46.5 Rushing Yards
This play comes from the Monday night matchup between the Chargers and Jets, so there is some added sweat that comes with it, but Ekeler’s target is also pretty appealing right now. It is best to lock this in while it stays down here before Underdog kicks it up.
Since Ekeler came back to the rotation, the backfield split has not been quite as top-heavy as one would like if playing Ekeler’s yardage. He still had about three times as many rushing snaps as Joshua Kelley, but Kelley’s impressive efficiency on the ground compared to Ekeler’s (7.0 yards per carry versus 2.3) meant that the Chargers were and likely still will look the backup’s way quite a bit. As a result, Ekeler did not go for more than 46.5 yards on the ground in any of those three games and only has once in any game this season (Week 1, 117 yards).
The Jets run defense also does not lend a ton of credence to the Chargers having a ton of success on the ground. That said, 47 yards rushing on 15 or so carries would hardly fall into the category of “a ton of success.” At Ekeler’s career average of 4.5 yards per attempt in his career, he would only need 11 carries to reach 47 yards. Even if Kelley takes on a good chunk of the rushing work, that will fall somewhere in the range of 5 to 10 carries, leaving 15-plus for Ekeler. He is due for some positive regression on his efficiency as well, even against a strong defensive front.
It could be a good option to throw in Kelley lower than 22.5 yards as well, as Stokastic is giving that play a 58% win expectancy. Ekeler, meanwhile, projects for 65.1 yards rushing on 15.4 carries, giving the higher on 46.5 a 55% chance of hitting.
Best NFL Underdog Fantasy Play: Austin Ekeler Higher Than 46.5 Rushing Yards
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