The Stokastic NFL boom/bust probability tool is a useful resource to help identify high-upside NFL DFS upside picks for Week 9 that can give us the best chance of winning big-dollar contests on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel.
Once more information on player availability comes out and projections are dialed in fully, we will post an update later on Sunday to see how the data has shifted.
NFL DFS Picks – Week 9 High-Upside Picks & Boom Plays
See below for a quick refresher on Stokastic’s NFL DFS boom/bust tool, along with explanations of what each column represents. We’ll mainly be referencing boom and bust percentages while we search for the highest-upside plays that can help win us Week 9 DFS tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Boom%: Probability of achieving positional target score based on chance of being the top 1 QB, top 2 RB, etc.
Bust%: Probability of failing to achieve positional value – 2 fantasy points.
Ceiling: 75th percentile performance.
Floor: 25th percentile performance.
Optimal%: Probability that player will be in the perfect lineup that slate.
Let’s get to a closer examination of more of the noteworthy boom and bust probabilities for Week 9 NFL DFS.
Week 9 Update (Sunday 12:30 PM ET):
Projections have been updated at Stokastic for NFL DFS on DraftKings and FanDuel. Alvin Kamara currently has the highest Week 9 DraftKings boom probability (14.2%) across all non-defense positions, while that distinction belongs to Josh Jacobs (13.2%) on FanDuel.
We highly recommend going through the full data set for all positions on both sites to help you gain an edge in your NFL DFS prep for Week 9.
Quarterback: Derek Carr
DraftKings – $5,700; 9.7% Boom | FanDuel – $7,100; 7.6% Boom
Derek Carr is at the top of the QB position as far as DraftKings boom probability ratings for the Week 9 main slate are concerned. Carr and the Saints will be up against the Bears and are favored by five and a half points on the NFL odds board. They’re implied for 25 points, tied with the Eagles for the most on the main slate.
Two of the main appeals with Carr are the suppressed salaries and the stackability ease with the likes of Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Juwan Johnson. Olave and Thomas in particular are priced down on DraftKings ahead of Week 9 and will make for popular stacking partners with the QB.
Carr is showing an optimal lineup rate of 10.1% on DraftKings and 8.6% on FanDuel. Only Jalen Hurts is showing in more optimal lineups at QB based on our simulations.
Running Back: Saquon Barkley
DraftKings – $7,900; 5.2% Boom | FanDuel – $8,600; 4.0% Boom
It’s not the most stacked of DFS slates, especially at the running back position, as there isn’t anyone who’s clearly ahead of the rest in boom probability.
Saquon Barkley could be worth a look at his $7,900 DraftKings and $8,600 FanDuel salaries this week versus Las Vegas. He has been a true workhorse for the Giants over the last few weeks — he just piled up 36 carries in Week 8’s close loss to the Jets — and is being utilized frequently in the passing game too.
Looking at OddsShopper’s player pages, Barkley has a rushing yards prop of 76.5 and a receiving yards prop of 22.5 for this road game against the Raiders, and he is right around +105 to score a touchdown at any point this Sunday. Barkley is showing in the optimal lineup at a 16.2% rate on DraftKings and an 18.1% rate on FanDuel.
Wide Receiver: A.J. Brown
DraftKings – $8,600; 8.2% Boom | FanDuel – $9,000; 10.1% Boom
A.J. Brown is a tough full fade these days given how he has been consistently dominating week in and week out. He’s posted 127 or more receiving yards in six straight games and is only 61 yards away from reaching 1,000 yards on the year.
This is not the easiest of matchups against a strong Dallas defense. That being said, the Stokastic DFS boom probability values are on Brown’s side again for this weekend, as he has an 8.2% boom probability on DraftKings and 10.1% on FanDuel for Week 9’s game against Dallas.
The Eagles WR is showing in the optimal lineup at an 18.2% rate based on Stokastic’s DraftKings simulations, and that number is at 23.0% on FanDuel. As of now, Brown is projected for 19.2% ownership on DK and 21.2% ownership on FD.
As far as WR value goes, New England’s Demario Douglas is currently popping on DraftKings with a 15.6% boom probability and 21.4% optimal rate. We recommend going through all of the data at each position to be as prepared as possible in Week 9.
Tight End: Kyle Pitts
DraftKings – $4,100; 6.4% Boom | FanDuel – $5,200; 4.7% Boom
This one isn’t for the faint of heart, as few players have epitomized boom/bust more than Kyle Pitts (mostly it’s been bust so far in his career). However, TE is quite ugly again, Pitts is priced down at $4,100, and he could be called upon for a higher opportunity share from new starting quarterback Taylor Heinicke with number one receiver Drake London ruled out.
Pitts and the Falcons take on Minnesota at home in Week 9, and the talented tight end has a 6.4% boom probability on DraftKings and a 4.7% boom probability on FanDuel.
For the time being, the Falcons’ tight end is showing in the optimal lineup 7.6% of the time based on Stokastic’s DraftKings simulations and at a 7.5% clip on FanDuel. Atlanta is implied for 21 points and favored by 4.5 ahead of kickoff.
NFL DFS Picks – Week 9 Lower-Upside Situation
Using the boom/bust tool, we can gain insight into which players and teams may be in more unfavorable positions for NFL DFS. Each week we will take a look at a seemingly less exciting game to see what the player-level boom and bust data shows.
Cardinals/Browns
The Cardinals/Browns matchup has one of the lowest totals at 37.5 points, and Arizona is implied for only 15 of those. Clayton Tune is slated to get the start for the Cardinals, while Deshaun Watson is expected to return for the home team.
When trying to figure out if there are any NFL DFS upside picks worth considering within this matchup, we can turn to the individual boom and bust probability data.
Here are the top DraftKings boom probabilities filtered for Arizona and Cleveland:
David Njoku (8.3% boom)
Amari Cooper (6.0%)
Cardinals D/ST (5.5%)
Trey McBride (5.3%)
Elijah Moore (4.7%)
And on FanDuel:
Browns D/ST (9.8% boom)
Cardinals D/ST (7.6%)
Amari Cooper (5.7%)
David Njoku (5.2%)
Deshaun Watson (3.6%)
Be sure to stay glued to player news and projection updates leading up to lock so you can make the most informed lineup decisions possible. A lot could change in the data as more information comes out, so we will add an update to the top of this article as we get closer to kickoff.
As a general reminder, projections are one piece of the NFL DFS puzzle and other factors like projected ownership, roster construction and game theory should be considered when constructing daily fantasy football lineups.
More Stokastic Week 9 NFL DFS Tools 🏈
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NFL Lineup Generator
NFL Player Projections
NFL Ownership Projections
NFL Boom/Bust Probability
NFL Top Stacks Tool
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