It is a colossal 14-game slate tonight as the NHL returns from its holiday break, and most of the top stars are available. With the teams having three days off, gathering accurate lineup and injury information will be an ongoing process. In turn, before we get to our NHL DFS picks today, Stokastic members are strongly encouraged to check the Discord throughout the day for pertinent news.
Let’s dig in.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Auston Matthews (TOR vs. OTT): DraftKings – $10,000 | FanDuel – $10,300
There has been no hotter goal scorer in the month of December than Matthews as he has an absurd 14 goals in nine games this month, landing over five shots on goal per game. Getting winger Matthew Knies back on his line has helped a lot as the team generates 18% more shot attempts and nearly 9% more expected goals at 5-on-5 when Matthews is on the ice with Knies than without him. Those two have developed good offensive chemistry regardless of the third player on the line beside them.
Ottawa fired their coach a week before Christmas and the early returns haven’t been much better. Their 3.1 expected goals against/60 at 5-on-5 in the three games with their new coach was 29th in the league, a number that was much worse than what the team did under the old coach (2.7/60). It is still a small sample, obviously, but awful underlying numbers backed by allowing 14 goals against in those three games doesn’t instill much confidence on this team being significantly better. It still appears to be a very good matchup for Matthews tonight.
Matthews carries a hefty price tag across the board tonight and his Stokastic fantasy point projection is lower than the other high-priced centers. The point-per-dollar value, then, is worse for him than comparable options, but it is also leaving his ownership projections lower as he sits in single-digits with the other two high-priced options in double digits. He is fine to use in all formats tonight, including a line stack for tournaments.
Pierre-Luc Dubois (LA vs. SJ): DraftKings – $3,500 | FanDuel – $4,300
While Dubois’s surface stats of six goals and seven assists in 30 games don’t exude much confidence, it should be noted that his points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this season (1.93) are a four-year high for him. His big issue is that he’s lost over 2:30 in ice time per game compared to last year and has been on the second PP unit for weeks now. The surface stats are the only ones that matter for DFS purposes, but this should help highlight the difference between a genuinely bad season and one that appears worse than it is because of a drastic change in usage.
Dubois’s line has been very good at producing offence (in a small 75-minute sample) by outshooting the opposition 42-32 and creating nearly 62% more expected goals than the opponent. A poor line shooting percentage (4.8%) has kept their goal scoring totals meagre, but the matchup tonight is a good one. They’ll avoid the top line from San Jose and with that line off the ice at 5-on-5 over the last month, the team gave up 45% more expected goals against and 3.3 actual goals against per 60 minutes.
Among all centers priced under $4,000 on DK and $4,500 on FD, Dubois is second and first, respectively, by Stokastic’s fantasy point projections tonight. The cheap price and great matchup could push more ownership his way, but he has great point-per-dollar values tonight, and that makes him acceptable as a one-off option in all formats.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Kirill Kaprizov (MIN vs. DET): DraftKings – $8,000 | FanDuel – $8,000
Since Minnesota hired their new coach a month ago, the top-line duo of Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek has been very good by generating 3.0 expected goals and 33.4 shots per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, managing six actual goals in nearly 94 minutes of ice time. They are controlling 63.8% of all expected goals when they’re on the ice together so not only are they creating a lot of offence, but they are suffocating the opposition, which only helps create more offence. It is a feedback loop of the best kind.
One big advantage for Minnesota tonight is Detroit’s lack of discipline. They are giving up the fourth-most power plays per game this season and the Wild are drawing the ninth-most power plays. In six weeks since American Thanksgiving, the Red Wings are 23rd by shots against while short-handed and have given up 10 PP goals against in 12 games. It is a very good matchup for the home team’s \ power play, and it helps Kaprizov’s outlook a lot.
Kaprizov’s fantasy point projections for all wingers ranks third and fourth on DK and FD, respectively, but he’s outside the top-5 and top-10 wingers by price on the two sites, respectively. That gives him good relative value to other expensive wingers, and makes him an option as a high-end one-off or as part of a line stack for tournaments.
Tyler Toffoli (NJ vs. CLS): DraftKings – $6,000 | FanDuel – $6,300
There has been a downturn in Toffoli’s usage of late as he’s averaged just 16:20 per game in ice time over his last 10 games, a number that was 18:02 in his first 22 games. The bright side is his DK price tonight is the cheapest it’s been since the first game of the season, and he’s skating on a loaded top line with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt. That trio has been excellent offensively this season by creating 3.5 expected goals and 3.4 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
Aside from the high-level lineup spot he occupies, this is a great matchup across the board for Toffoli. Columbus’s penalty kill has given up the third-most shots against per minute over the last six weeks and moderate goals against numbers have been saved by great goaltending. The road team is also 25th and 27th by actual goals and expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, respectively, in that span, so this is a positive matchup at all strengths for Toffoli. It helps stomach usage issues a little better.
On DK and FD tonight, Toffoli’s point-per-$1,000 value exceeds 2.1 and 2.5, respectively. That is very good value regardless of where he’s rostered as the matchup helps outweigh his ice-time drop. There should be high ownership because of it, but on a slate this large, it isn’t hard to get unique with the rest of a DFS lineup, so he and his line mates are strong options for tournaments tonight.
Jack Quinn (BUF vs. BOS): DraftKings – $3,200 | FanDuel – $3,500
Quinn’s return to the lineup following his Achilles rehab has been very successful by scoring twice in three games leading to the holiday break. Last season, his line did well creating offence by averaging 3.6 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. That number is even higher in his small sample back in the lineup this season, so nothing to hang our hats on yet, but certainly more of the same high-end offence the trio showed a year ago. He is not on the top power play unit, but Boston’s penalty kill has generally been very good again this season, so it’s not a huge loss in value for this particular matchup.
Boston is, however, struggling defensively at 5-on-5. They are 20th in the league by expected goals against at 5-on-5 over the last seven weeks, and 13th by actual goals against. Not an awful performance, but not great, and nowhere close to what we expect from the Bruins. Stacking against them is still difficult because of that penalty kill, but a low-cost winger whose value is largely derived from even-strength production is a way to avoid that issue.
On the topic of point-per-$1,000, similar to Toffoli, Quinn is over 2.0 on DK and exactly at 2.4 on FD tonight, per the Stokastic fantasy point projections. He can be used as a cheap salary-saving winger tonight in tournament lineups.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Alex Pietrangelo (VGK at ANH): DraftKings – $6,600 | FanDuel – $6,000
The lack of point production from Pietrangelo is mostly due to shooting 1.4% this season. His three-year average in Vegas was 5.9%, so he could improve his 2023-24 rate four-fold and still be in line with prior years. In the good-news department, facing Anaheim for the first game out of the break is a good one for Pietrangelo and the rest of the Vegas power play as Anaheim is still giving up by far the most power plays per game (4.5). Over the last four weeks, the Ducks have gotten .900 goaltending when short-handed, which is an outstanding number, but have still given up six PP goals against in eight games because they take so many penalties. Volume matters, and it helps bolster Pietrangelo’s DFS profile for tonight.
Of all blue liners on the slate tonight, Pietrangelo ranks third and sixth on DK and FD, respectively, by fantasy point projections. He may carry high ownership relative to other top options because of the matchup but on such a large slate, it’s not a significant issue.
Sebastian Aho (NYI vs. PIT): DraftKings – $2,800 | FanDuel – $3,700
The other Sebastian Aho has seen a big role increase since the injuries have started piling up on New York’s blue line. His six games since returning from his own injury have seen him skate 19:09 per night where he averaged just 14:53 over his first 18 games of the season. Those six games have seen him block 13 shots in total, so the added minutes are helping his add some more peripherals to his DFS profile. That kind of increase helps the value of a player whose price is so cheap immensely, as does playing for a team giving up the third-most shot attempts per minute at 5-on-5 over the last four weeks.
Aho’s increased role has seen him average 6.5 DK points per game in those six games as the minutes have helped him post at least 4.1 DK points in each outing. That isn’t extreme, but at such a cheap price, he has a good chance of outproducing his cost in this matchup.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Kaapo Kahkonen (SJ at LA): DraftKings – $6,700 | FanDuel – $6,600
San Jose visiting Los Angeles is a matchup that clearly favors the home side, but it also presents a good DFS opportunity for Kahkonen. Over the last four weeks, the Kings are taking the third-most shot attempts, and landing the most shots on goal, per minute at 5-on-5. Conversely, San Jose is bottom-3 by those same measures defensively, and it could lead to a lot of volume against Kahkonen. He has faced at least 36 shots in over half (7) his starts (13) and saw 38 shots against this very same Kings team a week ago. There is always the chance to get blown up – he’s been pulled twice in those 13 starts – but he stands a reasonable chance of posting a good DFS score for his price as long as he avoids that fate.
Kahkonen is projected for the second-most saves of all goalies on the slate tonight, but the third-most goals. That kind of extreme split shows us the risk, but also the upside, of rostering such a goalie in this matchup. He is only viable for tournaments, but tournament players may want to look in his direction for a cheap netminder.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
FLA1: Evan Rodrigues – Aleksander Barkov – Sam Reinhart
Tampa Bay has started using the duo of Anthony Cirelli and Steven Stamkos for a shutdown role more often lately, and that’s good news for Florida’s top line. That Lightning duo has given up 2.9 expected goals and 3.5 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this season, both numbers being much worse than when they’re on the bench. Conversely, this top Florida line has been excellent offensively all season, something that has carried over their last 10 games: 3.6 expected goals for and 4.5 actual goals for per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
Whether on DK or FD, very low ownership is expected on this line as the Top Stacks tool has them under 1% on both sites. They carry positive leverage, meaning a much higher top-2 stack probability than expected ownership, so they are a low-owned line to consider for tournaments.
ARI2: Mattias Maccelli – Nick Bjugstad – Lawson Crouse
On the topic of matching, this Arizona line has been used more against opposing top lines over the last month. Colorado being in town gives them a high-end offensive line to shut down, but that Colorado trio has also been below-average defensively over the last month. The members of Arizona’s second line have all averaged over 18 minutes per game over their last 10 games, so while the per-minute offensive numbers have suffered in their new shutdown role, adding a couple minutes per game in TOI has helped offset that drop. Maccelli has also been added to the Coyotes’ top PP unit of late so that gives him additional value against a team giving up the fifth-most power plays per game.
Though this line carries negative leverage tonight, per the Top Stacks tool, they’re expected to have ownership under 1.5% on both sites. It means that negative leverage is very low, and a reasonable price makes them an acceptable filler stack on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Stokastic’s NHL Premium subscription is available in either weekly or monthly packages and includes NHL DFS projections, top stacks, expert Discord and more! Join today!
*Additional best NHL DFS picks today stats from Natural Stat Trick
