There are just four games in the NHL on Wednesday night, but it has a good mix of high-end stars like Tage Thompson and Cale Makar as well as young, upstart teams like Anaheim and Arizona. Let’s look through the matchups to analyze both the high-end NHL DFS options and the bargain-priced side.
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NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Nathan MacKinnon (COL vs. STL): DraftKings – $9,500 | FanDuel – $10,200
Despite posting 7 points in eight games this season, MacKinnon is averaging over 18 DraftKings points and 20 FanDuel points per game because of his shot volume: 5.9 shots on goal per matchup. He has as many outings with at least eight shots (2) than he does with under four. He leads the league in shot attempts per minute and for a guy that skates 21:30 a night, it leaves a very high fantasy floor to work with.
Tonight is a home matchup with St. Louis and the Blues have provided one of the best matchups to opponents for allowing shot volume: fifth-most shot attempts and seventh-most shots against per minute this season. St. Louis just gave up 35 shots to a Vancouver team that is 27th in the league in shots per minute and that means it’s a tremendous offensive opportunity for MacKinnon. He has winger Mikko Rantanen back on his line and with that duo on the ice over the last three years, Colorado is scoring nearly 4.0 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, which is an astounding offensive number.
Predictably, MacKinnon is the highest-projected player on both sites tonight, per Stokastic, exceeding the next-closest option by 5 points and 6 points on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. He is likely to be the highest-owned player on the slate because of it, but he should be a top target for cash games at the very least.
Leo Carlsson (ANA vs. ARI): DraftKings – $3,500 | FanDuel – $5,200
Anaheim is taking the patient approach with its second overall pick from this past Entry Draft, but he has gotten into five games so far and has 3 points and 12 shots in those showings. One key here is that he’s averaging 19:15 in ice time per night, which is high total and rare for a rookie. His line has been good, considering how bad the team was a year ago, generating 2.8 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, controlling nearly 52% of all expected goals.
A key to this Carlsson matchup is that the Ducks don’t often use his line in a shutdown role, opting for veterans to take those minutes. When Arizona has its top line off the ice, the team allows 32% more shot attempts against. That huge drop in the Coyotes’ depth defensive performance is something Carlsson and his linemates can take advantage of.
Among centers priced under $4,000 on DraftKings tonight, Carlsson leads the way and it’s providing excellent value. He is much more expensive on FanDuel, though, so even if he’s a fine value on that site, DFS players looking for a bargain center may want to consider Morgan Frost (PHI, $3,200) who is centering top winger Travis Konecny.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Jeff Skinner (BUF at PHI): DraftKings – $7,100 | FanDuel – $6,500
Very quietly, Skinner has been one of the most efficient producers in the NHL for a few years now. This season alone, he leads Buffalo in even-strength points per 60 and is around the 96th percentile of the league’s forwards. Going back to the start of the 2021-22 season, he has managed a similar rate of EV points per 60 to forwards like Mitch Marner and Kirill Kaprizov. The key is he’s produced as well with Thompson as his center (2.98 points per 60) as without (3.18).
Philadelphia has had a good start to its season, but Skinner should avoid the shutdown defense pair from the Flyers, and the team goes from controlling 57.5% of the expected goals with that pair on the ice to 49.8% without. A drop isn’t surprising, but it’s something that should help our winger’s line control the play and create more offensively. The big issue is inconsistent ice time as Skinner has had as many games with under 16 minutes (2) as over 19, but with his prolific efficiency, he doesn’t need 20 minutes for big fantasy performances.
Skinner has been priced up on DraftKings, which leaves his point-per-dollar value low but in line with others in his pricing tier. On FanDuel, though, he is (relatively) much cheaper and it makes him one of the best point-per-dollar values for flanks exceeding $6,000 tonight.
Cam Atkinson (PHI vs. BUF): DraftKings – $5,300 | FanDuel – $5,700
On the other side of that Buffalo game is a Philadelphia team that is off to a solid 4-4-1 start. A big part of the early success has been Atkinson and Sean Couturier returning healthy and productive; the Flyers are generating 73 shot attempts, 3.6 expected goals and 4.1 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five with the duo on the ice. Those are superb offensive numbers and it’s helped the winger start his campaign with five goals and 8 points in nine games.
Buffalo has improved its defensive play of late, but its discipline is still lacking. At 4.1 power play opportunities given per game, the Sabres are tied for the fourth-most times shorthanded each contest this season. Their goalies have been tremendous on the penalty kill, carrying an aggregate .933 save percentage, but that is something that will regress heavily and bodes well for a top Flyers power play unit that has four goals in under 19 minutes of ice time together.
There are dozens of wingers on both sites priced under $6,000, but Atkinson is fourth in overall DraftKings and FanDuel projection at the position. Given his power play correlation with Couturier, using them as a duo in tournaments is one approach to take, but Atkinson can certainly be used as a one-off option on a short slate.
Jake Neighbours (STL at COL): DraftKings – $2,500 | FanDuel – $3,300
As bad as St. Louis is defensively, there is still some offensive value to be found. Neighbours has found his way to the third line alongside Jakub Vrana and Kevin Hayes. Beyond that, Neighbours is expected to skate on one of the team’s power play units with high-end offensive players Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich. A matchup with Colorado is a matchup against a team giving up the sixth-most power plays per game to the opponent. For a guy that is min-priced on DraftKings and not far from that on FanDuel, it’s a good spot for production.
There are issues, of course. He is skating just 12:36 per night and is not a high-volume shooter on a per-minute basis. That is reflected in his price, though, and on a slate this short, there aren’t many options in his price range that have his offensive role.
For those wingers that are priced at-or-near the minimum price, Neighbours is third in Stokastic’s DraftKings fantasy point projections and fourth on FanDuel. He may not play a lot of minutes, but he also doesn’t need to accrue much production to pay off his price, so he can be used as a salary-saving one-off tournament option.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Sean Durzi (ARI at ANA): DraftKings – $6,000 | FanDuel – $6,200
The start to Durzi’s Arizona tenure has been a productive one with four goals and 7 points in eight games, totaling 21 shots and 14 blocks. His 19% conversion rate will clearly regress negatively, but his assist rate should regress positively as he’s skating over three more minutes per game than any season in his career but his assists per game are tied for a career low. Facing Anaheim tonight plays well for Durzi’s role as the Ducks are giving up the most power plays per game to the opponent at 5.3 per contest. Conversely, Arizona is third in drawing power plays per game at 4.3, so this defender should have plenty of special team time tonight.
For this slate, Durzi is ranked third and fourth in overall expected fantasy points on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. It makes him a fine value for his cost. Just beware of ownership as he’s sure to be one of the five highest-owned defenders tonight.
Thomas Harley (DAL at CGY): DraftKings – $3,100 | FanDuel – $3,700
His price has come up a bit on DraftKings, but Harley is showing very well with two goals and 4 points in seven games after a great playoff performance in the spring. He has been reliant on that point production for fantasy value as he’s posted just eight shots and 11 blocks, but Dallas is also creating more even-strength expected goals per 60 with him on the ice (3.81) than any other of its blueliners. Facing a Calgary team that is last in even-strength save percentage, a year after being 30th, bodes well to create actual goals off those expected goals.
Harley is carrying the fifth-highest projection for any blueliner priced under $4,000 on FanDuel tonight so he’s a cheap option to target on that site in tournament contests. His value isn’t as strong on DraftKings where peripherals like shots and blocks are more important, but he’s still fine to use. Otherwise, Radko Gudas (ANA, $3,000) rates higher for his cost.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Jake Oettinger (DAL at CGY): DraftKings – $8,000 | FanDuel – $8,500
The young netminder has had a great start to his year with four wins in five starts, posting a .940 save percentage. Stokastic’s GoalieStats section has four goalies set to start tonight and also make at least 28 saves. Oettinger is one of them, but he’s also carrying the lowest expected goals against. Calgary has struggled to score for two years now, particularly at five-on-five, but generates a high rate of shots, and that mix of shot volume and few goals is a key to goaltending success in DFS. He is priced as one of the more expensive goalies on the slate, and that’s always precarious in a road matchup, but he needs to be considered in all formats tonight given the matchup.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
ARI1: Clayton Keller – Barrett Hayton – Nick Schmaltz
It has been a tough start for Hayton with 0 points, but both Schmaltz and Keller are on point-per-game paces and a big reason is the power play. Thus far, the top Arizona power play unit has five goals in 31:15 of total ice time, or one every 6.25 minutes. Last year, the top power play unit scored once every 9.3 minutes, so it has been much more efficient (if a bit lucky). Regardless of the luck factor, as mentioned in the Durzi section, the Anaheim Ducks are the most penalized team in the league while Arizona is among the league leaders in drawing power plays. It gives this trio a very good special team matchup.
This Arizona line is likely to carry a lot of ownership on FanDuel, where it is priced several thousand dollars less than some other top lines tonight. It won’t be as bad on DraftKings, though, where Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool has it with positive leverage. Forward Logan Cooley is also on the top power play unit, so there are ways to get creative with the stack to dilute ownership too.
BUF2: Jeff Skinner – Casey Mittelstadt – J.J. Peterka
As mentioned in the section on Skinner, he has been efficient with his scoring regardless of his center, and it’s largely because of his success with Mittelstadt. The latter has turned into a top playmaker in the league over the last few years and leads the Sabres in assists per minute at five-on-five over the last two years. Again, this line should avoid the top shutdown defense pair from Philadelphia, and Skinner skates on the top power play unit. For his part, Peterka is third among the team’s forwards in shots per minute at five-on-five, trailing only Skinner and Thompson. This line has a good mix of both playmaking and scoring.
This line is coming in slightly over-owned, per Stokastic’s Top Stacks leverage but is still expected to be in the single digits on both sites. That is perfectly fine on a slate this small, and it is firmly in play as a secondary stack for tournaments.
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*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick and Frozen Tools
