CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let’s get into the CFB Week 10 DFS picks and projections for Tuesday, Oct. 31.
CFB Week 10 DFS Picks and Projections | Wednesday, Nov. 1
Quarterback
Kiael Kelly ($6,500): On a slate full of quarterbacks expected to split time, Kiael Kelly could be one of the few to play an entire game. Ball State enters this game against Bowling Green as a 5.5 point underdog in a game with a 39.5 total. They also rank 112th in pace and throw the ball 48.4% of the time. With that said, this team has drastically reduced their pass rate under dual threat quarterback Kelly. He already accounts for 344 cumulative yards on the ground, which is enough to rank him atop the quarterbacks this week.
Connor Bazelak ($6,100): A slight favorite here, Bowling Green ranks 131st in pace and throws the ball 43.6% of the time. Quarterback Connor Bazelak is the second-most likely to play all of the snaps after out-snapping Camden Orth 33-19 in their last game. Check pre-game warmups to make sure he starts, because Orth has superior efficiency metrics and better mobility. Orth would slide in as QB2 if active.
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. ($6,200): Akron enters this game as a 3.5 point favorite over Kent State in a game with a 38.5 total. After starting Tahj Bullock for two straight games, Akron gave all but one snap to Jeff Undercuffler Jr.. Undercuffler has one of the worst DFS skill sets in the entire country with his propensity for sacks. He already has -116 rushing yards, despite hardly playing this year. Even if he receives all of the snaps, he may not pay off value. His only redeeming quality is a matchup against a putrid Kent State defense. Make sure he warms up with the starters before rostering.
Michael Alaimo ($5,500): After starting the year with Michael Alaimo under center Kent State decided to involve Tommy Ulatowski of late. Ulatowski went down with an injury, but the coaching staff still indicated a desire to use multiple quarterbacks. The other players who could see time now are incumbent Devin Kargman and Kansas State transfer Jaren Lewis. There is no way to determine how playing time will shake out for Kent State.
Running Back
Jaylen Thomas ($5,000): Despite losing all but one game, Kent State still has a 44% pass rate, while ranking 64th in pace. Perhaps the biggest injury news on the slate, Gavin Garcia missed Kent State’s last game, allowing Jaylen Thomas to touch the ball 19 times. Even with Garcia in the picture in the two previous game, Thomas still touched the ball 25 and 23 times. While efficiency could be an issue, volume should be there for Thomas.
Terion Stewart ($8,000): After starting the year in a committee, Terion Stewart has emerged as Bowling Green’s primary runner. He now has at least 21 touches in three of their last four games. Ball State does play solid run defense and Ta’ron Keith handles a majority of the pass downs. However, Stewart has been efficient on the ground with 82.6 yards per game.
Marquez Cooper ($7,400): Another beneficiary of Ball State’s increased run rate, Marquez Cooper has touch counts of 16 and 27 over the last two games. It should be noted that Rico Barfield did not play in their last game and Vaughn Pemberton handles most of the pass downs. However, this workload still stands out on a slate without many pricing restrictions.
Lorenzo Lingard ($6,700): A rare favorite, Akron enters this game ranked 79th in pace with a 56.7% pass rate. Florida transfer Lorenzo Lingard averages 12.6 touches per game for 48.5 rushing and 28.8 receiving yards. Change of pace back and Arizona transfer Drake Anderson averages 6.3 touches per game himself. While this looks like more of a timeshare than other situations, this could be Akron’s best matchup all season.
Wide Receiver
Crishon McCray ($5,700): While the Kent State passing game has been inept, Crishon McCray averages 56.8 yards per game on 8.0 targets. More importantly, this number has jumped to 12.0 targets per game over Kent State’s last four. Trell Harris hasn’t played, which has also meant more opportunities for Jameel Garnder Jr. and Luke Floriea. Both are tournament options as pivots off McCray.
Odieu Hiliare ($4,000): Odieu Hiliare leads Bowling Green with 28.5 yards per game on 4.8 targets. This comes in ahead of Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim and Austin Osborne at 4.1 and 3.4 targets per game. While none of these options provide safety, Hiliare looks like the top Bowling Green pass catcher to target.
Daniel George ($5,500): The most prolific passing attack on the slate, all three of Akron’s starting receivers should be considered here. Daniel George currently leads the team with 37.3 yards per game on 7.0 targets. However, he has seen 23 combined targets over the last two games. Behind him, Jasaiah Gathings and Alex Adams remain viable for tournaments.
Tanner Koziol ($4,000): With Ball State’s increased reliance on the pass, the pass catchers look less intriguing. However, tight end Tanner Koziol still provides a solid price-adjusted projection. Routinely above 90% of the routes, he leads the team with 45 targets. This has resulted in just 30.3 yards per game, but he comes in much cheaper than leading receiver Qian Magwood. Behind Magwood and Koziol, Ahmad Edwards and Malcolm Gillie round out three wide receiver sets for tournaments.
