We have arrived at the first Monday slate of the NHL season, and there are five games to dissect for NHL DFS picks. It features the first-ever matchup between Auston Matthews and Connor Bedard as well as two of the most high-octane offenses from a year ago as Florida visits New Jersey. There is a lot to pick through, so let’s get to it.
This slates locks at 7 p.m. ET and each game starts at that time as well, so keeping tabs on information for warmups is crucial. Stokastic members are encouraged to double-check the Discord for up-to-date lineup and injury news.
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Auston Matthews (TOR vs. CHI): DraftKings – $9,600 | FanDuel – $10,300
It has been a surreal start to the season for Matthews, as he’s registered hat tricks in both his outings, averaging over 22 minutes a night in ice time and landing 13 total shots on goal. That has been a quick rebound from his 2022-23 season where he “only” scored 40 goals in 74 games, largely thanks to shooting a career-low 12.2%. Anywhere close to his three-year mark of 17.2% would have seen him soar past 50 goals, so if he’s getting positive regression, he is going to fill the net.
While the Blackhawks are getting the run of play when Bedard is on the ice, they are also giving up over 36 shots against per 60 minutes of five-on-five play. That is exceptionally high, and if Bedard and Co. get into a track meet with Matthews, the latter will have a plethora of scoring opportunities.
Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections have Matthews as one of two forwards expected to land north of four shots on goal tonight. He and Jack Hughes are first and second by that measure and fantasy point projections on both sites, exceeding even the goalies. Matthews is projected for more ownership, but he is at least a strong option for cash games.
Evgeny Kuznetsov (WSH at CGY): DraftKings – $4.000 | FanDuel – $4,700
It was a down year for Kuznetsov in 2022-23, but that down year still saw 55 points in 81 games. A big culprit was shooting a career-worst 7%, having averaged 12.5% over his prior three seasons. Had he shot that number, he would have added 10 goals to his total and his season would have looked much better. Being unlucky is unfortunate, even if there were other factors at play.
Kuznetsov is skating on the team’s top power play unit, and Washington having Nicklas Backstrom in the lineup is huge for that power play: Over the last three seasons, the first man advantage quintet created 10.4 goals per 60 minutes with Backstrom and just 5.2 without him. The addition of the Swedish center should help Kuznetsov improve on the 18 power play points he had a year ago.
The main reason for this recommendation is the center’s price on DraftKings. His low cost gives him by far the highest fantasy projection among centers priced $4,000 or less (he’s still second on FanDuel for those priced under $5,000). For that reason, he can be used as a one-off option but also as part of a Washington power play stack for tournaments.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Artemi Panarin (NYR vs. ARI): DraftKings – $6,300 | FanDuel – $6,300
Panarin has been productive to start his 2023-24 campaign, with a goal and 3 points in two games and managing eight shots in those outings. The early returns on his new line with Filip Chytil and Alexis Lafreniere have been great, with 18 shots and a pair of tallies in just 23:34 of shared ice time. Including last season’s playoffs, New York’s game against Columbus on Saturday was the first time in 25 games that Panarin managed at least five shots on goal. If his line creates offense to even 75% of the level it has thus far, Panarin’s shot volume could rise and unlock another level to his fantasy output.
Arizona visiting tonight represents a great matchup for Panarin. Last season, with their top line off the ice, the Coyotes allowed 21% more shots on goal at five-on-five. Their first game of this season showed a similar defensive drop-off, so until it proves otherwise, the Coyotes team defense is considered suspect, and that plays into the hands of Panarin and his cohorts.
Among NHL DFS wingers tonight, Panarin ranks fourth in points projection on DraftKings and third on FanDuel. The key is that he’s priced much lower on both sites than all the high-end options, and that makes him a tremendous value. He’s the only player on his line on the team’s top power play unit, so he’s suited as a one-off option in tournaments.
Ondrej Palat (NJ vs. FLA): DraftKings – $4,300 | FanDuel – $4,800
New Jersey has changed up its lines a bit, and this has moved Palat to a line with Nico Hischier and Timo Meier. The Palat-Hischier duo was solid for the Devils last season, creating 3.0 expected goals and 3.1 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Those aren’t elite offensive numbers, but they’re very good, and Palat is not priced anywhere near the elite forwards. They will get the top-line matchup against Florida’s Aleksander Barkov, but the Panthers are also missing their two top defensemen, so this is not a complete roster heading to New Jersey.
A year ago, Arizona led the NHL in power play opportunities given to the opponent at 3.9 per game. The gap between them and the next-highest team (Ottawa, 3.6) was larger than the gap between Ottawa and eighth-place Nashville. The Coyotes gave up five power plays in their first game of this season, and that could provide Palat a lot of power play time skating on Hughes’ power play unit.
Non-elite levels of ice time and mediocre shot rates are muting Palat’s points projection, but that is also keeping his ownership low: He is listed at 7% on DraftKings and 12.4% on FanDuel. He is best used as part of a line stack for tournaments.
Adam Fantilli (CBJ vs. DET): DraftKings – $3,700 | FanDuel – $4,600
There has also been some shuffling of the lines in Columbus, and the latest iteration has put Fantilli alongside Patrik Laine. Whether this line succeeds or not is for the fortune tellers, but the important part is that he’s not stuck on the team’s third line as he was to start the season. The coach has said that this line’s power play unit will be treated as the top power play, which feels like coach-speak, so take it with a grain of salt, but it did get preferential treatment to the other power play quintet in Saturday’s game against the New York Rangers.
The big note here was the ice time jump Fantilli saw on Saturday night. He skated a little over 16 minutes, as compared to 13:40 in his first game when he started on the third line. That level of ice time, skating most of those minutes with Laine in secondary matchups, bodes well for the rookie’s DFS value.
A lack of prior history and moderate ice time this season is keeping Fantilli’s fantasy points outlook in check. Like Palat, though, that muted projection is also keeping his ownership low, coming in under 3% on both listed sites. Given his correlation with his linemates, he is also best used as part of a stack for tournaments, though a low price makes him acceptable as a one-off.
Fantilli is listed as a center on FanDuel, so for a cheap winger on that site, look to Ryan Donato (CHI, $4,300), as he’s slated to line up with Bedard both at even strength and on the power play.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
John Carlson (WSH vs. CGY): DraftKings – $6,800 | FanDuel – $5,700
One of the big reasons for Carlson’s inclusion is the difference in pricing between the two sites. He is the most expensive blueliner on DraftKings tonight but is sixth by cost on FanDuel and is 22% cheaper than Dougie Hamilton, who tops the list. That kind of discrepancy can play into the favor of DFS players over on FanDuel tonight.
Carlson skated just 21:42 in the Capitals’ first game, but it’s worth noting that they were getting blown out, and he didn’t play much in the third period as a result. His Capitals are at home to a Calgary Flames team that gave up the ninth-most power plays a season ago. A lot of his value derived from the man advantage, so it’s good news for Carlson to see the Flames in town.
With his relatively cheap price on FanDuel, Carlson is Stokastic’s top point-per-dollar value among blueliners with a price tag of at least $5,000. His strong NHL DFS projections and a small-ish slate mean he can be used on either DraftKings or FanDuel, but he’s a much better value on the latter.
Kevin Korchinski (CHI at TOR): DraftKings – $2,900 | FanDuel – N/A
All the press in Chicago has (rightly) gone to Bedard, but Korchinski is a rookie himself and a highly touted one, as he was taken seventh overall in the 2022 draft. Through three games, he and Seth Jones are the only Blackhawks blueliners boasting ice time rates over 20 minutes a night (20:29 and 24:54, respectively). The high pace that Chicago is playing with means opportunities for anyone earning a lot of ice time to block shots, and Korchinski has multiple blocked shots in each of his three games, totaling nine overall.
The rookie rearguard is fifth by Stokastic NHL DFS projections for any skater at that position priced $3,000 or less tonight. Anyone needing to save some salary has a cheap, useful defenseman available here.
FanDuel has not included Korchinski in the player pool, so look to Luke Hughes (NJ, $4,000) for a cheap blueliner on that site, as he is running one of New Jersey’s power plays against a team that usually takes a lot of penalties.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Vitek Vanecek (NJ vs. FLA): DraftKings – $8,100 | FanDuel – $8,000
Stokastic’s GoalieStats have four goalies tonight expected to make at least 29 saves, and Vanecek is one of them. Of those four goalies, he is also projected for the fewest goals against. The Panthers led the league in shots per minute at even strength a year ago, and in the very early portions of this season, they are fifth. That should provide Vanecek plenty of opportunity to rack up saves for DFS players, though the obvious downside is it also provides plenty of opportunity to rack up goals against. Such is the life of a goalie.
Vanecek is projected to be the highest-owned goalie tonight on DraftKings and second on FanDuel, so plenty of users will be looking this way. There are few teams that can generate shots like Florida can, though, so maybe there’s good reason for that.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
TOR1: Tyler Bertuzzi-Auston Matthews-Mitch Marner
The early returns on the Toronto top line have been strong, even setting aside the dual Matthews hat tricks. It is just two games, but they have generated a shade over 35 shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Last season, the duo of Matthews and Marner helped their team generate just 32.4 shots per minute. If they can maintain their new rate, the scoring chances (and goals) should follow.
Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool has this Toronto trio first by top-2 stack probability on both sites and in the top 2 by leverage on both as well. Bertuzzi can be swapped for another power play forward like William Nylander, but they should be given heavy consideration on Monday night.
CGY1: Jonathan Huberdeau-Elias Lindholm-Andrew Mangiapane
Over the last two seasons, Lindholm and Mangiapane have skated over 166 minutes together at five-on-five. In that time, the Flames generated 32.4 shots, 3.3 expected goals, and 4.7 actual goals per 60 minutes. Those are great to elite offensive numbers, and the addition of all-world playmaker Huberdeau should help create high-percentage chances.
For DraftKings, Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool has Calgary second by top-2 stack probability among all lines priced under $15,500, and second on FanDuel among those priced under $17,500. DFS players looking for a top line that won’t carry heavy ownership should consider this trio.
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*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick and AllThreeZones
