Broncos-Lions DFS Picks: Will Russell Wilson Keep The Denver Playoff Hopes Alive?! (December 16)

Saturday Night Football features two playoff hopefuls with the visiting Denver Broncos (7-6) hanging on to an AFC Wild Card slot, while the Detroit Lions have a two game lead for the NFC North title and are trailing the three top teams in the conference by one game, with four left to play. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Broncos-Lions DFS picks for the Saturday Night Football Showdown slate.

Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Saturday Night slate, so check out these Broncos-Lions DFS picks.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Broncos-Lions DFS Picks

Denver Broncos: 21.75 Points

Quarterback

The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Russell Wilson as the QB12 on FanDuel and the QB11 on DraftKings for the full Week 15 player pool. The 35-year-old has improved slightly with his interception and sack rate compared to last year, though they are still among the worst of his career.

Detroit is in the bottom-third of the league from a passing DVOA perspective, though the Lions have been more inconsistent than truly bad. Over the last seven games, only Justin Herbert (323) has topped 270 yards, while his four aerial scores in Week 10 are the season high against this unit, Jordan Love (3) is the only other opposing-signal caller with a multi-score game during this stretch.

In the last 10 games, Denver has attempted more than 30 passes on just three occasions. In this span, Wilson is averaging 18.6 completions on 27.4 attempts for 181.8 yards, with 1.7 touchdowns and just over one turnover. He is also averaging 6.2 carries and 25.8 rushing yards, highlighted by a pair of touchdowns.

Running Back

This is still a backfield by committee, with Javonte Williams not quite able to carve out a true RB1 role. He has performed relatively well considering his catastrophic knee injury last season, though he is averaging only 3.8 yards per carry with just two plays of more than 20 yards. By comparison, albeit in limited work, undrafted rookie Jaleel McLaughlin is averaging 5.7 yards per tote, with four plays of 20-plus yards on one-third of the attempts.

Veteran Samaje Perine is the best pass protector and he has been adequate on his carries (4.7 ypc), plus he ranks third on the team with 44 targets, 40 receptions and 378 receiving yards. Factoring in salary, Williams is by far the best option of this trio on FanDuel, though it is a little more muddy on DraftKings.

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton just catches touchdowns with 10 on the season and they have been spread out over the 13 games, including a trip to pay dirt in seven of his last eight appearances. He has yet to top 80 yards and is averaging a thin 6.1 targets, 4.1 catches and 53.8 receiving yards per game.

Jerry Jeudy excels at disappointing his believers and his fourth season has resulted in a career low 12.1 yards per reception, with one paltry touchdown. Next up is rookie Marvin Mims Jr. who somehow cannot move ahead of Jeudy and he has a mere 28 targets, 18 receptions, 298 yards and one score.

Tight Ends

Adam Trautman has 10 of his 28 targets since the Week 9 bye, averaging two per game. Lucas Krull has a less than marvelous three in this stretch, while Chris Manhertz has one. Greg Dulcich (hamstring) could be activated from the injured reserve, but he has only been healthy enough to take the field in the opener and then in Week 6, though he had a pair of targets in each tilt.

Defense/Special Teams

Denver is in the middle of the pack with 34 sacks on the season, however, the Broncos have 15 in their last three games. The Lions allow just two sacks per game, with a slight uptick over the last month. The Broncos lead the league with 13 fumble recoveries and 24 total takeaways, while Detroit is just above league average with 20 turnovers.

Detroit Lions: 27.5 Points

Quarterback

Jared Goff has produced at a rate similar to his Pro Bowl effort last season, though his interceptions and sacks have increased a fair amount. He is sixth in the league with 265.3 passing yards per game and eighth with 21 touchdowns. He has just 21 rushing yards on the season, but he also has snagged his only two rushing touchdowns of the last three seasons.

Goff knows how to utilize his abundance of talented skill-position players and while he a neutral option for the multiplier slot tonight, he is a strong flex play. This season he has five games of at least 24 fantasy points and three others with 16-plus.

Running Back

Detroit also has a shared backfield, but it is at least a little more predictable. Both veteran David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs have missed games with injuries, though when the pair is healthy, Monty seems to get more of the carries when Detroit is tied or leading, while the team leans on Gibbs when trailing. Each player is a capable rusher and receiver, with Montgomery being the steady veteran, but Gibbs having the best chance of streaking down the sidelines.

For perspective on his 128 carries, Gibbs has eight plays of 20-plus yards, with two more receptions topping that distance, while Montgomery has three on 161 totes. The old bull has 10 rushing touchdowns, while the young bull has six.

Wide Receiver and Tight End

Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 88.6 receiving yards per game which is the fifth most in the league. He also has six scores and is in the top-10 for targets, receptions and yards after the catch per game as well. Rookie tight end has stepped in as the perfect wingman and he is second on the team in targets, receptions and yards, while tying Brown with six touchdown catches.

Veteran Josh Reynolds (back) has been on the field a fair amount, though he is seeing just 3-4 targets per game since the Week 9 bye. He is also working through a back issue, that limited him in practice on the short week. Jameson Williams has worked his way up to a similar snap-share as Reynolds, after being suspended for the first four game of the season. Since the by he has averaged two targets per game.

Kalif Raymond would likely claim a couple extra targets if Reynolds is out and he already looks good at $2,200 on DraftKings, even with Reynolds still in the projections. Finally Donovan Peoples-Jones is the fifth receiver, having been acquired at the trade deadline from Cleveland. His snaps would likely crest into the mid-teens if Reynolds is out, but he has only three targets in his four games as a Lion on 32 offensive snaps.

Winding down the tight end position, Brock Wright has the 14 targets that did not go to LaPorta. Second-year man James Mitchell may see the field for a handful of snaps, but the former fifth rounder out of Virginia Tech does not have a target this year.

Defense/Special Teams

The Lions are averaging just over one takeaway per tilt, which is the sixth lowest rate in the league. Denver is around league average with 1.4 turnovers per game, though the line has been shaky and Wilson tends to hold the ball too long, so the Broncos are gifting opponents around three quarterback takedowns per matchup, while Detroit is ceding just over two sacks per tilt.

Saturday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.

Broncos-Lions DFS Picks Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Broncos-Lions

1. Amon-Ra St. Brown: Best floor and most attainable ceiling makes him a worthy play on upwards of 70% of all lineups.
2. Jared Goff: Steady, though not sexy.
3. David Montgomery: Slight nod over his rookie counterpart in what projects to be a Lions lead most of the game scenario.
4. Jahmyr Gibbs: It will be interesting to see where the projected popularity shakes out between him and Montgomery.
5. Sam LaPorta: Conceivably all of the top-five are interchangeable.
6. Russell Wilson: Best of the Denver options, but the Broncos are allowing 377.4 yards per game, which is the fourth most in the league, which in turn is pushing up the core Detroit options. This is driving Wilson to be the most popular Bronco, so keep that in mind for overlap/duplications in the giant tournaments tonight.
7. Javonte Williams: Leader of a three-back committee, could lose out due to a hot-hand from either of his compadres or if Denver falls behind by multiple touchdowns.
8. Courtland Sutton: Will the touchdown parade continue?
9. Wil Lutz: No stranger to domes having played his first six seasons with the saints. 7 of 10 over the last two seasons from 50-plus yards, was the NFC Pro Bowl kicker in 2019.
10. Riley Patterson: League average, just 3 of 6 in his 37 game career from beyond 50 yards, above average inside 45 yards.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Broncos-Lions

1. Jerry Jeudy: Has heard all week about how he couldn’t drag his feet on that likely touchdown last week, what you see is what you get.
2. Jameson Williams: When accounting for the salary discount, Williams is arguably better than Jeudy on DraftKings, even as the fourth or fifth option in the Detroit aerial attack.
3. Samaje Perine: There have been a couple late game drives this season where he has garnered three-plus targets. That outcome could easily have him returning a profit in the full-PPR scoring format on DraftKings.
4. Denver D/ST: Piled up almost half of the season sack total in the last three weeks.
5. Detroit D/ST: Wilson will gift them a couple sacks and a turnover as an early Christmas present.

Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Broncos-Lions

1. Kalif Raymond and Josh Reynolds: Move Raymond above the D/STs if Reynolds is out, otherwise salt to taste. Raymond also returns punts.
2. Jaleel McLaughlin: Any miscues from Williams or if he gets dinged up, would open up a path to DFS relevance.
3. Marvin Mims Jr.: Episode 10 of “Maybe This is the Week he Surpasses Jeudy” – as an aside, how do coaches seem to forget they are the ones in charge and can make personnel adjustments. Main punt and kickoff returner.
4. Adam Trautman: League average player, but one of Peyton’s guys.
5. Lil’Jordan Humphrey: Below replacement level player, but one of Peyton’s guys… now it is apparent why Mims is on the sidelines.
6. Brock Wright and Lucas Krull: Looking for a little holiday magic from the backup tight end in the single-slate format is viable.
7. Chris Manhertz,  James Mitchell and Greg Dulcich: Less magic and more in the miracle category, but they are all at the $200 minimum salary on DraftKings.
8. Donovan Peoples-Jones: Move above the backup tight ends if Reynolds sits.
9. Craig Reynolds, Antoine Green, Nate Adkins and Teddy “Remember Me?!” Bridgewater: Just say no.
10. Michael Burton, Tim Burton, Jarrett Stidham, Jason Statham, Dwayne Washington, Brandon Johnson and Dwayne Johnson: Just say Ho, Ho, Ho.

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