There are just four games in the NHL tonight but half the teams – Carolina, Los Angeles, Vegas, and San Jose – all played last night, so that means lineup information will be slow to trickle out. Paying attention to the news will be paramount, especially as lock nears for each game. In turn, before we get to our NHL DFS picks today, Stokastic members are encouraged to double-check the Discord for updates.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Elias Pettersson (VAN vs. PHI): DraftKings – $7,500 | FanDuel – $9,100
One issue with Pettersson’s DFS value is usually his shot volume; he sits at 2.7 shots per game and his career-high in a full season is 3.2. He has been firing the puck a lot more of late, though, as he’s landing nearly 11 shots per 60 minutes through 11 December games, a rate that puts him inside the 90th percentile of regular forwards this month. He has hit the DK shot bonus three times in his last five outings and while a defensively-adept Philadelphia team presents a challenge for his shot volume, that he’s been shooting more over the last month is a great sign.
Pettersson will be used less in a shutdown role with his new line configuration and when Philadelphia has had their top line off the ice at 5-on-5 over their last 10 games, the team allows nearly 27% more expected goals against. Easier matchups give Pettersson a better chance of getting on the scoresheet by avoiding Sean Couturier, and small edges matter on a small slate like this.
With a lot of ownership likely heading to teams like Carolina and especially Edmonton, Vancouver could go a bit overlooked. It is a tough matchup against a good penalty-killing team, but Pettersson has already had big games against teams like Florida, Nashville, and Carolina themselves. He can be used as a one-off or part of a stack in tournaments.
Sean Couturier (PHI at VAN): DraftKings – $5,200 | FanDuel – $6,500
Philadelphia has started leaning more on Couturier as he’s averaged 20:50 per night in ice time over his last 10 games, compared to 19:23 a night across his first 21 appearances. His shots per game have seen a small jump in that span partly because he’s finished with fewer than 19 minutes in ice time just once in those 10 games. His line has been outstanding in that span, controlling nearly 60% of the expected goal share while scoring over three goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. That trio should have the advantage at that strength against the JT Miller shutdown matchup.
One area where the Flyers have struggled is the power play as they’re last in the NHL over the last five weeks in goals scored per minute with the man advantage. On the flipside is a Vancouver penalty kill that has been middle-of-the-road in that same stretch, and even that middling penalty killing is them at their strongest this season. It isn’t a bad matchup for the Flyers’ power play, and they do generate 12.6% more PP shot attempts with Cam York on the blue line (as he is now).
There are few top-line, mid-priced centers on the slate and Couturier is near the top because of how well his line is playing. Whether by himself or as part of a stack, it’s necessary to at least consider the top Flyers trio tonight.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Zach Hyman (EDM at SJ): DraftKings – $7,700 | FanDuel – $9,500
We would be remiss to not include our Edmonton skaters. The matchup in San Jose – with the Sharks having played last night – is one of the best matchups for opposing offenses. Hyman has 12 goals and 77 shots in 17 games under his new coach and landing 4.5 shots per game is a huge DFS floor to work with. That stretch has seen him hit the DK shot bonus seven times in those 17 games after failing to reach that bonus in each of his first 13 games of the season.
Beyond his individual production, the team has taken off around him. Even as the top line has slowed its scoring at 5-on-5 of late, they are generating 4.7 expected goals and 4.4 actual goals per 60 minutes over the last three weeks, and that’s still an elite rate. San Jose is last in the league by expected goals and actual goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over that same three-week span, so it’s truly a great matchup for Hyman and his linemates as they return from the holiday break.
On a slate this size, with San Jose as the matchup, Hyman and the rest of the Oilers skaters will carry heavy, heavy ownership. He is certainly in play for cash games, but tournament players have a decision to make on how much ownership they are willing to accept.
Trevor Moore (LA at VGK): DraftKings – $6,000 | FanDuel – $7,600
Moore has been flying under the radar on a high-end Los Angeles team this season as he’s scored 16 goals on 103 shots in 31 games, leading them in goals and shots so far this season. His second line has been excellent together, producing 3.8 expected goals and 4.1 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 while controlling over 72% of the expected goal share. Those are huge numbers and reveal just how dominant they’ve been. That dominance has led to more ice time has Moore’s first 24 games saw him average 16:48 per night, a number that has jumped to 18:55 across his last seven outings.
Both Los Angeles and Vegas played last night, and both teams had to travel, so there’s no huge rest advantage either way. Vegas will likely have to turn to minor-league goalie Jiri Patera due to injuries and the back-to-back, and he’s allowed 13 goals in three NHL starts this season. Goaltending has been a big part of the Golden Knights’ success this season and Patera just isn’t the same level of goalie as Adin Hill was to start the season.
Due to his excellent shot rates, Moore is playable as a one-off option tonight. Los Angeles, like Vancouver earlier, may got a bit overlooked considering the two other teams in much better matchups, but that’s reason enough to at least consider Moore and his line mates for tournaments tonight.
Josh Anderson (MTL at CAR): DraftKings – $3,000 | FanDuel – $4,200
After a 27-game goalless drought that extended to the end of last season, Anderson has five goals (seven points) in his last 10 games, including four goals in his last four outings. The turn in shooting percentage is a big reason why he’s scoring more, obviously, but that misses that he has 30 shots on goal in 10 games this month. Shot volume always helps and while Carolina is a stout defensive team, starting goalie Pyotr Kochetkov played last night and, like Vegas earlier, that means turning to a lower-caliber goalie tonight in Antti Raanta.
Going into Carolina – goaltending agnostic – is usually a very tough matchup as they are typically great defensively, but that has slid a bit of late. Their 13 December games have produced the 13th-best expected goals against rate at 5-on-5, and they’re allowing 43% more expected goals with the Jordan Staal shutdown line off the ice. Anderson should avoid that Staal matchup tonight, so it makes a tough matchup a bit easier on this four-game slate.
At a cheap price and with good shot volume, Anderson is one of the low-end wingers to consider as a one-off tournament option tonight.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Darnell Nurse (EDM at SJ): DraftKings – $5,100 | FanDuel – $5,900
On the season, Nurse is one of just six defensemen with at least 70 shots and 70 blocks as he’s been a great peripheral performer. He has reached the DK shot bonus twice and the DK block bonus 11 times as a result. His big issue is a lack of assists as he has five in 31 games played. He currently has a seven-year low in assists per minute at 5-on-5 despite the team scoring 2.75 goals per 60 minutes with him on the ice (it was 2.87 last year and 2.53 the year before). With the team scoring much more under their new coach, assists should be more abundant moving forward and that, combined with his peripheral prowess, make him a very effective DFS player.
Like Hyman earlier, there should be heavy ownership on Nurse tonight even if he’s not running the top power play unit. He should be considered for tournaments, but stacking him with other Oilers (and even other Oilers defensemen) is one route to take.
Brent Burns (CAR vs. MTL): DraftKings – $4,200 | FanDuel – $4,700
Having Andrei Svechnikov healthy and on the top PP unit has been a huge plus for the team, and for Burns. With Svechnikov healthy and on that quintet, the team generates nearly 29% more shot attempts and the goal scoring more than doubles. Carolina’s shooting percentage is high, but the increase in shot volume tells the tale of how important it is to have that elite winger in the lineup. Over the last two seasons, Burns’s power play point production more than doubles when he has Svechnikov on the ice with him, and that’s especially good news for tonight: Montreal’s penalty kill is 23rd by shots against and 29th by goals against per minute in the month of December, and has largely struggled all season.
Burns’s cheap price and good matchup is likely to drive ownership his way, even with his team on the second of a back-to-back. However, any DFS players considering a top-line Carolina stack, or a power play stack, should also heavily consider including Burns because of the difference Svechnikov makes.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Cam Talbot (LA at VGK): DraftKings – $7,500 | FanDuel – $7,500
With backup David Rittich having played last night, Talbot should be in net tonight. He has been excellent this season by sporting a .925 save percentage behind an excellent defensive team. In 21 starts, Talbot has yet to allow more than four goals against in any of them and while there are still bad performances due to a lack of shot volume, he has yet to finish in the negatives on DK because he hasn’t been outright blown up (yet). Tonight, he faces a Vegas team that is fourth in the league in shots per minute over the last four weeks, so maybe there’ll be a reasonable amount of volume for him tonight.
Vegas is in the middle of the slate by team goal totals and that leaves Talbot in a good-not-great matchup. However, there are not many mid-to-low-priced options in net tonight that have also shown the upside he has this season, so requires some attention in tournament formats.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
EDM1: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman
As stated earlier in the section on Hyman, this particular Edmonton trio has been elite at 5-on-5 whether looking at recent play or the entire season as a whole. That doesn’t mention how good the power play has been as their last 12 games – dating to the break for American Thanksgiving – has seen the top PP unit generate over 87 shots and 17 goals per 60 minutes. Those numbers exceed what they did last season when the team had an historic power play. San Jose has given up 32 power play goals in 35 games this season, tied for the fourth-most per game in the league.
Because of the matchup, there will be heavy, heavy Oilers ownership tonight, and this trio especially. They are still viable because on a slate this short, one team exploding means it’s necessary to roster that team, but consider adding someone like Leon Draisaitl, or a pair of blue liners, to try and dilute the ownership a bit.
LA1: Adrian Kempe – Anze Kopitar – Quinton Byfield
Staying on the topic of power plays, since adding Byfield to the top PP unit, that quintet is scoring a whopping 90% more often on a per-minute basis. Over the last five weeks – about 20% of the season – Vegas is 23rd by shot attempts against and 26th by goals against per minute while short-handed. This is an improved power play facing a weakened penalty kill with Vegas starting an AHL goalie, as mentioned in the section Moore. Though Los Angeles isn’t generally thought of as a great power play team, the improvements with Byfield on that top unit are legitimate and help tip the balance more towards this trio.
This Los Angeles trio is typically not high owned, especially when it’s not a prime matchup like that of Edmonton or Carolina. It is a better power play spot than it would have been two months ago, however, and for that reason alone, they should be considered in tournament formats.
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*Additional best NHL DFS picks today stats from Natural Stat Trick
