OwnersBox NFL DFS: Broncos-Chiefs DFS Values for TNF

Thursday’s OwnersBox NFL DFS slate is a rough-looking Broncos-Chiefs game that could be extremely light on value options. But we still have an OwnersBox DFS Prime Time Flex contest to attack, and hitting on salary savers could break a slate that seems quite top-heavy. In particular, the Stokastic OwnersBox NFL DFS projections have identified a couple of receiver options that could open up some space at the top of the pricing pool. Let’s take a look at the best DFS value picks at $4,000 or below for Broncos-Chiefs on Thursday Night Football.

OwnersBox NFL DFS Picks: Broncos-Chiefs DFS Values for TNF

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WR Justin Watson, Kansas City Chiefs – $3,600

If you thought the pickings were slim on Monday, wait until you get a load of this TNF slate.

Right now only one player $4,000 or less is getting more than 5 fantasy points in Stokastic’s OwnersBox NFL DFS projections, and none have a top-10 value rating. What this mostly means is that the higher-projecting OwnersBox builds are likely to be pretty balanced with just a few studs, but if going full stars-and-scrubs, it makes sense to look at some of these cheaper, lower-value pieces.

Watson seems to be the safest of the bunch, as he is fifth on the Chiefs in targets and receptions and second in yards receiving. He is also averaging almost 22 yards per reception, so there is some upside if Mahomes looks Watson’s way a couple of times. The real ding thus far has been the lack of touchdowns, and honestly, the tight ends are hogging up all the real estate there; Travis Kelce, Noah Gray and Blake Bell combine for half of Mahomes’ touchdown passes, and Rashee Rice is the only receiver with more than one.

The most appealing aspect to Watson’s production, however, has been consistency. That is far from a given in the 2023 Chiefs receiver room, and Watson has 45 yards or more in four of five games. He is only projecting for 26.3 yards receiving and 5.41 fantasy points, but that projection still leads this value group, and there is plenty of room for a four-catch, 60-plus-yard game.

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WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kansas City Chiefs – $3,900

It has not manifested itself yet this year, but in theory, Valdes-Scantling has the highest upside of those $4,000 and below. If nothing else, he is the top home run threat in this range and is coming off a 687-yard 2022 season in which he was targeted over 80 times. Now, throughout his career, Valdes-Scantling has caught around 50% of his targets, both due to his faults as a receiver and his tendency to run wind sprints. He does, however, take the top off the defense at times.

There is not a ton of positive to look at this season — Valdes-Scantling has zero games of more than two catches and only one with at least 40 yards receiving. He also does not have a touchdown. But at $3,900, a long touchdown would possibly break the slate, and a handful of receptions would pay off his salary since he averages 16.6 yards per reception.

It is not the most appealing play, and Valdes-Scantling’s non-existent floor has his projection at a minimal 4.73 fantasy points. However, for a cheap flier with proven upside, there is some value here.

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WR Brandon Johnson, Denver Broncos – $3,500

To round out the collection of down-the-pecking-order receivers with low projections but decent upside, Johnson is getting a bit more shine in the Broncos offense this year. Now, that has amounted to just a couple of catches a game at most, but Johnson turned those into 97 total yards receiving and a pair of touchdowns in the first two weeks of the season.

The two-touchdown game in Week 2 especially shows Johnson’s upside at a dirt-cheap $3,500 salary, and though he is well down the Broncos target list, his three total scores are tied for the team lead. But the potential boon here for Johnson as a value play is the status of Greg Dulcich. Dulcich is currently treated as not playing in the projections, which is making fellow tight end Adam Trautman grade as a slightly better value than Johnson. But should Dulcich play — which he is trending towards doing — Trautman will likely slip in value and Johnson could look a little better as Trautman and Dulcich split tight end production.

Keep an eye on Dulcich as well, as he is $3,500 and could jump up once ruled in. For now, Johnson is projecting for 4.21 fantasy points with upside for a lot more at a minimum price.

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.