The FedEx Cup playoffs bring a new format for 2023. Gone is the 125-man field that used to be a mainstay of the first event, and in its place is a 70-man, no-cut field. One thing that will stay the same is the venue. TPC Southwind is a tight, technical par 70 that is surrounded by water on several angles and forces players to be accurate and consistent with their off-tee and approach play or suffer a watery death. The last two winners at this venue gained over four strokes on approach for the week of their win, and the small Bermuda greens also mean that around-the-green play can be a factor, especially if the winds get up.
While it is an elite field, it is worth noting that last season a player who was over 100-1 in the betting odds in Sepp Straka nearly got the win. An outsider/mid-range betting target in Abraham Ancer also took home the title at this venue in 2021. While the best players should flourish, it is best not to write off anyone, as all 70 golfers have played well at some point this season to get here.
Below we will go through some of the best under-the-radar pivot plays at various price points for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. We will also look at some names that are perhaps trending too hot in the ownership department and may warrant a fade in larger GPPs. As always, we will use Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections and PGA DFS ownership projections to help make our decisions for the fade/pivot list at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
PGA DFS Fades & Pivots | FedEx St. Jude Championship
TPC Southwind Stats and Info
- Par 70; will play at 7,233 yards with smaller Bermuda greens. Water comes into play on 11 holes, both off the tee and around the greens.
- Greens in regulation and fairway accuracy are both extremely low here compared to most venues, with the field averaging well under 60% in both categories.
- 2020 winner Justin Thomas gained 7.7 strokes on approach for the week of his win, and all three men involved in the playoff in 2021 gained four strokes or more on approach.
- Tee-to-green play is important, with extra emphasis on players currently striking it well with their mid- to long irons.
2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship PGA DFS Fades and Pivots
High-Range PGA DFS Fade: Wyndham Clark
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 16.4%
Wyndham Clark has had a massive year. He won his first two PGA Tour events and shipped the U.S. Open in major style just two months ago. While he has had a few decent results since that miraculous week, there has also been a noticeable dip in his play since then too. Clark’s approach game has not been as consistent over his last two starts, and though he remains an elite putter, it is worth noting that he did indeed lose over three strokes on approach at this venue last season. Clark is by no means finished, but he is getting a lot of attention and has PGA DFS ownership projections that have him ending up in the 15% to 18% owned range in most GPPs. With a small but noticeable dip in performance after his major win, it is likely not the best spot to buy in heavily.
High-Range Pivot: Hideki Matsuyama
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 8.4%
Landing big finishes in big tournaments is all about taking some risks, and there is not a riskier play among the upper- to mid-tier crowd than Hideki Matsuyama. He was on a great roll prior to the Wyndham, as he had gained over four strokes on approach in four of his last six starts and landed a 13th-place finish at the Open, one of his best ever at that major. Matsuyama regressed a little last week in ball striking, and his horrendous around-the-green play and putting (and some seriously bad luck) propelled him to a bad missed cut — in an event where he started as one of the betting favorites. That letdown has led to an opportunity for the first playoff event, as he is projecting to be well under 10% owned at a venue where he has finished 20th and second (lost in a playoff) in his last two appearances. Matsuyama is one of the stronger plays in this range in Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections and makes sense as a pivot option for a true boom/bust play in this range.
Mid-Range PGA DFS Fade: Tom Kim
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 20.0%
If you were to ask most DFS players which salary sticks out the most on DraftKings, most would likely point to Kim. He is certainly underpriced at $7,800 coming off back-to-back top 10 finishes, which includes a runner-up at the year’s last major at Royal Liverpool. Kim is worth some exposure, but for game theory purposes ,there is also a pretty good argument for being underweight on him in larger fields or even single-entry tournaments. Kim’s ball striking has remained inconsistent while playing in the U.S., and the fact he has also been off for a couple of weeks is a bit concerning given that he was not the most reliable player for DFS purposes prior to going overseas. The main argument against him is the PGA DFS ownership projections, which are 20% or higher on Stokastic. While he is not worth a full fade, pivoting off him to some less popular names merits consideration.
Mid-Range Pivot: Sungjae Im
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 10.1%
It has been a strange season thus far for Sungjae Im, who looked ready to challenge in some big-boy tournaments early on in 2023 before he inexplicably suffered through a string of missed cuts and poor finishes. Im has rallied a bit in the summer, posting a top-20 finish at the Open. Plus, he looked more in control of his game last week at the Wyndham when he gained over 5.3 strokes around and on the greens. His iron game is still playing catchup, but his driving has taken a tick upward of late, and his driver was often the club that carried him most weeks during his hot run in 2022. With Im on his preferred Bermuda surface, another move upward should almost be expected. He is coming in at just 10% in Stokastic’s PGA DFS ownership projections, and he makes sense as a pivot play for leverage in this range.
Low-Range PGA DFS Fade: Lee Hodges
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 11.9%
Nothing against Lee Hodges, who projects as a strong play at this price point, but any $6,500 golfer who is going to have over 10% ownership is generally going to be a fade in large PGA DFS tournaments, especially in a no-cut event. Hodges had a great 3M Open, but his history shows that his putting (he gained over six strokes on the greens at the 3M Open) is not likely to be sustainable. In fact, Hodges has only gained strokes putting in consecutive weeks once in 2023, and that came back in February at the Honda Classic and Genesis Open. There are so many low-owned names in his range with potential that using Hodges or going overweight on him gives up a great leverage spot. He lands in the fade pile unless looking for a simple floor play to round out 50/50 or heads-up lineups.
Low-Range Pivot: Andrew Putnam
Projected DFS Golf Ownership at DraftKings: 7.1%
Unlike Hodges, Putnam has shown that his putter can maintain long, unadulterated stretches of utter hotness. He has also landed some really solid results at TPC Southwind in his career. Back in 2017, he pushed Dustin Johnson in the final round (eventually finishing top 5) on this course and had an excellent four rounds here last season, eventually finishing in fifth. He is coming off a solid week at Sedgefield where he gained over three strokes on approach and comes into the playoffs off of seven straight made cuts. He is projecting as the best pure value under $6,500 on Stokastic and comes in at nearly half the ownership of Hodges, making him a leverage target off the chalk of the range.
