The Rocket Mortgage Classic is a weaker-field event that features 150-plus golfers. As such, there are a lot of lower-tier names to pick from but only a handful of elite names to build around. Expect the ownership on a lot of the big names to be high but also relatively flat. Defending champion Tony Finau is the highest-priced option on DraftKings, but he has also been in poor form of late and is unlikely to be the slate chalk. That is ditto for Collin Morikawa, who started poorly last week and could not make the weekend at Hartford despite a second-round 63.
Expect there to be lots of interest in Rickie Fowler and Justin Thomas, who both had stellar weekends at the Travelers and are cheaper than Finau. All in all, the players who popped last week in a lower-scoring tournament should get lots of attention given that soft conditions will be in play once again. Driving forces at Detroit Golf Club will be course history and length off the tee since Detroit Golf Club has wide fairways, four par 5’s and has produced big hitters like Cam Davis and Bryson DeChambeau as winners in the past five seasons.
Below we will go through a few of the best fade and pivot spots for PGA DFS lineup building, with a main focus on large-field GPPs with top-heavy prizes. As always, we will use Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections and PGA DFS ownership projections.
PGA DFS Fades & Pivots | Rocket Mortgage Classic
Detroit Golf Club Stats and Info
- Par 72, 7,370 yards; the venue is a Donald Ross course, and he has also designed Sedgefield (Wyndham Classic) and Pinehurst No. 2 (U.S. Open 2014).
- The course features numerous shorter par 4’s, and that has made 125 to 150 yards the busiest grouping for approaches; 150 to 175 yards is also a popular yardage for approaches.
- Four of the par 4’s here measure under 400 yards, and the venue saw each of the top-12 finishers in the field in 2021 gain at least 1.4 strokes putting for the week.
- The fairways rank as some of the easiest to hit on the PGA, and the average driving distance has been about 8 to 10 yards higher than the regular PGA average.
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic PGA DFS Fades and Pivots
High-Range PGA DFS Fade: Justin Thomas
Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 28.2% | FanDuel: 28.1%
Thomas is coming in off a solid week in Hartford. He ranked second in approach at the Travelers and was able to claw his way up to a ninth-place finish there despite losing strokes on the greens. The result was positive, but it is not hard to imagine Thomas slipping a touch either. He is still struggling massively with the putter and has lost strokes putting in five of his last six starts, plus he will be on unfamiliar poa greens — 2023 will mark his first career start at this event. Detroit Golf Club also sets up better for off-the-tee specialists, and it is the approach game that is carrying Thomas. From a PGA DFS projections standpoint, he has the lowest top-6 probability in Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections of any player worth $10,000 or more on DraftKings, and yet he is also projected to be the highest-owned player on the slate. With a couple of lower-owned pivots available, Thomas is likely worth being underweight on in larger-field player pools.
High-Range Pivot: Tom Kim
Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 17.5% | FanDuel: 27.1%
Kim’s 38th-place finish from last week may not look overly impressive, but he gained 5.3 strokes on approach at the Travelers and goes to a course in Detroit Golf Club that he actually has experience playing. That is a rarity for Kim, who is just completing his first full year on the PGA. Kim finished seventh at this tournament last season — a result which jumpstarted his late-summer run in 2022 — and gained 9.8 strokes tee to green in the process. While he is yet to truly heat up on the greens in 2023, Kim gained 3.3 strokes putting at the U.S. Open and was positive with the flat stick in Detroit last season as well. He and Thomas have nearly identical PGA DFS projections on Stokastic, but Kim looks like he will come in with perhaps 30% to 40% less ownership in larger fields on DraftKings. Considering that Kim also saves $200 over Thomas, he makes for a good pivot and player to get overweight on if possible.
Mid-Range PGA DFS Fade: Brian Harman
Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 6.2% | FanDuel: 6.4%
Harman produced yet another solid week at the Travelers, posting a second-place finish and his fifth top-10 at the Travelers in the last six seasons. The short course in Hartford is a dream come true for a short hitter like Harman, who can wedge and putt with the best players on the PGA. The course requires players to do a little more off the tee, however, as the driver will be a primary option on many holes. That is not Harman’s jam at all, as he is not very accurate with that club and has lost strokes off the tee in five straight events. Harman has also struggled at Detroit Golf Club in past seasons, missing the cut there in both of his previous attempts. He is playing well but at $8,800 looks vastly overpriced and has players around him in Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections who have similar outputs and lower ownership projections.
Mid-Range Pivot: Ludvig Aberg
Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 8.4% | FanDuel: 11.8%
Aberg is projected to be higher owned than Harman, but the difference is negligible. His price took a big jump after the Travelers (where he finished 24th), and the fact he has only played in a handful of PGA tournaments should keep his ownership levels somewhat flat. Despite a higher price, this is certainly not a poor spot to stay with Aberg, as the longer course should play to his strengths. Aberg has gained over four strokes off the tee in each of his last two starts and will be able to use his driver more as a weapon on Detroit’s expansive, parkland layout. Given that bombers like Matthew Wolff and Bryson DeChambeau have excelled here in the past, it would not be overly shocking if Aberg were to have himself a monster week on his first go around the course. Even with the price jump, Aberg is still the second-highest-projected player on Stokastic (at under $9,000 in price on DraftKings). With how well the course profiles for him, Aberg makes sense to use as a pivot in this range when appropriate.
Low-End PGA DFS Fade: Kevin Yu
Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 18.8% | FanDuel: 8.2%
As promising as Kevin Yu looks as a player, he is pushing to be nearly 20% owned on DraftKings and makes for a pretty standard ownership fade. He is getting plenty of attention from both media and the DFS community, which is certainly playing a role in his current PGA DFS ownership projections. Even if he comes in lower than his current 18.8% projection on DraftKings, anything over 10% owned is a pretty hefty number to have attached to a player who is still unproven and just $7,000. There are always players who come in well under 5% owned in this range, and looking to use one of them in large-field tournaments to gain leverage over the Yu truthers makes sense as a strategy for large-pool GPP builds.
Low-End Pivot: Carson Young
Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 2.0% | FanDuel: 3.1%
On the flip side to Yu is Carson Young, who is a steady player with solid upside but does not get a ton of attention. Young is projecting for about 1/10th the ownership of Yu at the moment and is also coming off a great week at the Travelers where he finished 15th and shot rounds of 65 on Saturday and Sunday. Unlike Yu, who was off for a while, Young has played well almost all season and already produced six top-25 finishes on the year. While he does not have the prowess off the tee that Yu does, Young has proven his ability on the greens can make up for a lot of those shortcomings, and he has been one of the most consistent players on approach over the last few months, gaining multiple strokes on approach in five of his last six starts. From a leverage standpoint, if Yu is as popular as it seems he will be, Young will give you solid leverage at his current levels. He has already proven he is capable of landing top finishes in fields like this.
