The PGA rolls on into the heart of the summer schedule with the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Despite only being in existence for four seasons, the Rocket Mortgage has already achieved Classic status, which likely overstates how good the fields at this stop have actually been. With a short turnaround between majors, many of the top pros have chosen to skip this event in the past, and once again there will be fewer big names playing in Detroit than there were at the elevated Travelers last week.
That said, winners in Detroit have not been slouches. After a longshot winner in 2019 (Nate Lashley), Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Davis and Tony Finau have won at this stop the last three seasons. This season, the field will consist of eight players who currently sit in the top 30 in the OWGR. Defending champion Finau will be teeing it up, along with Justin Thomas, Max Homa and Collin Morikawa. Rocket Mortgage spokesperson Rickie Fowler will also be in the field and searching for his first win since the 2019 Phoenix Open.
With a ton of big money at stake for DFS, there has never been a better time to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, to get an edge. But before you do, make sure you keep reading as the full preview for the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic DFS picks is below.
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic DFS Preview & Picks
The top 5 finishers at the Travelers the week prior were as follows:
- Keegan Bradley -23
- Brian Harman -20
- Zac Blair -20
- Scottie Scheffler -19
- Chez Reavie -19
- Patrick Cantlay -19
Last week saw the players absolutely take apart the short and outdated TPC River Highlands. Scores of 60 and 62 were common, and the winner at one point got to 25 under par before giving a few shots back late. While players will take on a longer golf course in Detroit Golf Club, the result may not be all that different. The par 72 is still short at just 7,330 yards, and last season four players reached the 20-under mark (with eventual winner Finau hitting 26 under for the week).
While off-tee play at Detroit Golf Club has been more important on this week’s venue, this event will still come down to the greens, and sinking an ungodly number of 15 to 25 footers will be key. Last season, Finau gained 4.5 strokes putting for the week but was actually more dominant off the tee and on approach, where he gained 5.9 and 5.8 strokes, respectively. Both DeChambeau and Cameron Davis are also strong off-tee hitters, as is last year’s runner-up Taylor Pendrith, who matched Finau for much of the tournament last season.
Bombers have prospered much more at this expansive track than at more technical stops (like last week), and one of the big narratives in play will be off-tee play. That is not to say do not target the shorter hitters, but they will be at a bigger disadvantage on this course compared to last week’s and will have to make up those strokes on the green — like Nate Lashley did in 2019 when he gained 9.1 strokes putting for the week.
Rocket Mortgage Classic DFS Picks: Betting Trends
- Two of the last three winners of this event finished inside the top 10 in their previous start.
- Two of the last three winners also played in the tournament the week prior and finished top 10.
- Each of the last three winners of the Rocket Mortgage Classic had gained over three strokes off the tee in at least three prior starts in the calendar year.
Below are some of the top players in the field to watch given their recent form and course history:
- Rickie Fowler: Fowler followed up his U.S. Open performance, where he led after three rounds of play, with a 13th-place finish at the Travelers that saw him shoot 60 in Round 3. He has finished 13th or better in each of his last four starts.
- Chez Reavie: Reavie went head-to-head with Keegan Bradley for most of the tournament last week but cooled off near the end. He has made five cuts in a row and brings a red-hot putter into this tournament.
- Austin Eckroat: Eckroat actually cooled off a little last week, finishing in 24th and outside of the top 10. He lost strokes on approach but was saved by timely putting. He could be tiring a bit after four starts in five weeks.
- Aaron Rai: Rai looks in solid form right and posted a 24th-place tie last week in which he gained 3.8 strokes off the tee. Rai’s accuracy may not pay off as much as it did last week, but he has putted better in two starts, so do not be shocked if he has another quality start.
- Alex Smalley: Smalley finished strong last week, grabbing a share of ninth place after a solid closing round. He has gained strokes on approach in 10 starts and gained 5.8 strokes in that department alone at the Travelers, his second-highest mark of the season in that category.
Field Notes: There are again a lot of young talent to choose from for DFS and betting purposes. Ludvig Aberg keeps on rolling out decent finishes and looks like a player who will strike sooner than later on the PGA. He has been gaining big off the tee of late as well and looks competent around the greens, a potentially great mix for Detroit Golf Club. Akshay Bhatia is also back in action but has been terrible on the greens and looks risky for fantasy and betting. Amateur Gordon Sargeant will also be playing and may hit it further than anyone in this field. He struggled at Augusta but could find this easier course much more palatable.
Rocket Mortgage Classic Past Winners and Winners Stats
2022: Tony Finau
- Lead-in: win/28/13 (won the 3M Open the week prior)
- Stats for the week of win: SG: OTT 5.8/SG: APP 5.9/SG: ATG 2.5/SG: PUTT 4.5/SG: TTG 14.1
2021: Cameron Davis
- Lead-in: MC/45/59 (did not play the week prior, MC in his final start before Detroit)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 0.8/SG:APP 4.4/SG:ATG 3.2/SG:PUTT 3.1/SG:TTG 8.4
2020: Bryson DeChambeau
- Lead-in: 6/8/3 (came in on a run of six top 10 finishes and was sixth the week prior)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 6.7/SG:APP -0.5/SG:ATG 1.1/SG:PUTT 6.0/SG:TTG 7.3
All of these players are strong off the tee, although it should be noted that Davis did not have the greatest week off the tee during his win. Golfers can make up for a few wayward drives with some great around the green or putting, which is what Davis did. Davis outgained both DeChambeau and Finau in the year of their victories in that category. For profile, obviously great off-tee play is an asset, but strong putting trends should not be ignored either.
Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Course Preview
Detroit Golf Club:
Greens: Poa Annua/Bent
Designer: Donald Ross (1916)
Renovation: Robert Trent Jones, Arthur Hills, Bruce Hepner
Similar Courses: Sedgefield, Plainfield, Pinehurst
The North Course at the Detroit Golf Club is an original Donald Ross design and has a history that goes back as far as 1916. In order to host on the PGA Tour, many holes at Detroit Golf Club were altered and some reconfigured altogether. The venue has a couple of longer holes, including the 625-yard par 5 that still plays as one of the five easiest holes for scoring on the course.
Ultimately, even with the changes, this remains a straightforward setup for players, as the parkland setting (in the middle of Detroit) is very flat and offers clean lines to the hole on almost every shot if they hit the bigger fairways off the tee. Those fairways allow for more drivers and fewer consequences for poor shots, and that will lead to more approach shots that fall within the 20-foot range on the greens as well.
The scoring average has been well under par in each of the past three seasons at Detroit Golf Club, but do not be shocked if the course bites back a little in 2023. The quicker greens worked to keep things fairer in 2018 (where Davis won at just 18 under), and with some of the same dry conditions expected for this venue in 2018, it could take a small bite out of what the players can do with their approaches as well.
Even with the long par 5 in play, the four par 5’s at Detroit Golf Club ranked as the easiest four holes on the course, with the long par 3’s (a Ross trademark) generally being the toughest holes. The fairways and greens are quite easy to hit compared to the average PGA Tour venue, and Detroit Golf Club will allow players to take out the driver quite often given the lack of true doglegs. The four par 5’s and easy-to-hit fairways may favor big hitters over the long haul, but it is worth noting that Lashley only ranked 44th in driving distance in 2019 during his dominating win, and several players in the Course Horse section (Kevin Kisner, Troy Merritt, Cameron Tringale) all are below average in driving distance.
For bettors and DFS players, looking at possible correlations between this venue and results from other Donald Ross designs may be something to note. Courses like Pinehurst No. 2, Plainview, East Lake, and Sedgefield could all potentially be great indicators. As for proximity, the 125 to 175 range of approach is very popular given the setup, and players who are not super long off the tee can make up ground on the field by being great from this distance.
Key Stats: Strokes Gained: Tee to Green / Approach proximity 125-175 yards / Strokes Gained: Around the Green
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Recent Form Watch
Top Strokes Gained Tee to Green (Last 50 Rounds)
- Tony Finau
- Collin Morikawa
- Rickie Fowler
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Justin Thomas
Top Strokes Gained Putting (Poa, Last 50 Rounds)
- Peter Malnati
- Webb Simpson
- Max Homa
- Justin Suh
- Brandt Snedeker
Birdie or Better Percentage (Last 50 rounds)
- Justin Thomas
- Luke List
- Collin Morikawa
- Erik van Rooyen
- Max Homa
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Weather Update
Thursday morning: 68-70 F, winds 4-7 mph/ 0% chance of precipitation
Thursday afternoon: 80-82 F, winds 8-10 mph/ 0% chance of precipitation
Friday morning: 70 F, winds 3-6 mph/ 20% chance of precipitation
Friday afternoon: 77-80 F, winds 6-8 mph/ 40% chance of precipitation
The weather looks like it will again help players. Much like last week, where the random thunderstorms and some overnight precipitation caused the golf course to soften up, it looks like the course may get some help from random rain showers as well. The good news is that it seems unlikely a major wave advantage will materialize, as the wind should stay under 10 mph the first two days.
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic DFS Picks and Early Betting Targets
Hideki Matsuyama | BetMGM Outright
While it is not the strongest field of the season, there are some quality names in attendance, and some of them are in ripe form. At the top of that list is Hideki Matsuyama, who has bounced back bigly over his last four starts after he took some time off to address early-season injury issues. He finished just 32nd at the U.S. Open but gained 8.5 strokes on approach at that event, a good sign his normally elite ball striking is in top form. The 13th he posted last week at the Travelers was also extremely positive, as he improved with the putter while maintaining his ball striking for the most part.
Matsuyama ranks first in strokes gained tee to green over the last 24 rounds and is also third in approach and 13th in around-the-green play over that span as well. Like the last three winners of this tournament (DeChambeau, Davis, Finau), he is an elite ball striker who also has a very underrated short game, something not to be overlooked given the last two winners at Detroit Golf Club both gained over 2.5 strokes around the green. Matsuyama looks focused and has bested weaker fields before in lower-scoring events, with his last win coming at the Sony Open in 2022 at -23. He is a good outright target to open the week.
While he is not on the level of Matsuyama yet, Doug Ghim’s ball striking is making everyone take notice. He ranked first in strokes gained off the tee last week at the Travelers and is 12th in strokes gained tee to green in the field over the last 24 rounds. Ghim is not only striking it well, but he has also shown vast improvement around the greens of late, which has given him far more consistency (and upside) than he has had in the past. He ranks 17th in strokes gained around the green over the last 24 rounds and was again top 25 in that stat at the Travelers last week.
Ghim will need his putter to heat up to have a shot at an outright, but his combo of ball striking and around-the-green play gives him an extremely solid floor for a tournament like the Rocket Mortgage, where consistency off the tee is going to provide him with plenty of opportunities to gain traction with the flat stick. He is a good, low-unit gamble for the win and makes great sense as a top-10/20 play in the placing markets as well.
