This weekly article will examine the Stokastic top stacks tool to find out the best projected NFL DFS stacks along with some other options to consider for your daily fantasy football lineups. Which teams and games should we be honing in on when building NFL lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel?
IMPORTANT: It will be crucial to continue to monitor relevant player statuses, updated NFL DFS projections and our other tools as we get closer to lineup lock on Sunday. We’ll aim for an article update atop this space on Sunday morning to see if there are any significant shifts in the numbers. Let’s get to some of Stokastic’s NFL Week 1 top stacks!
Top NFL DFS Stacks for Week 1 on DraftKings & FanDuel
Before we get to the week’s tool analysis, below is a short legend overviewing the data points that may be referenced throughout, all of which can be found on the top stacks page for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top Stack: The probability that the QB + receiver combo will be the highest scoring of the week (averaged the probabilities for top-scoring with one receiver and two receivers together).
QB Own: Projected ownership of starting quarterback for the given team.
Avg Sal: Average salary of skill position players weighted for ownership.
Value:Â Top Stack % points per dollar of salary spent.
Rush %:Â How often the team is expected to rush on any given play during the game. A lower Rush % means the quarterback will be throwing more often!
Overall Rating: Stokastic’s rating of the quality of the stack, taking into consideration key variables like top stack probability, top value probability, and ownership.
The Stokastic team will keep updating our NFL DFS projections frequently through the weekend up until lineups lock, so keep checking back to the tool for the most updated data in order to truly maximize it.
Top NFL DFS Stacks – Sunday Morning Update #2
Projections have been updated again. Here’s another look at Stokastic’s top stack ratings for Week 1 as of 11:50 AM ET:
DraftKings top three overall team stack ratings: Chargers (26), Dolphins (23), Bengals (18)
FanDuel top three overall team stack ratings: Ravens (22), Seahawks (20), Chargers (20)
Be sure to check the tool all the way to lock to see if there are any more updates. Best of luck in Week 1!
Top NFL DFS Stacks – Sunday Morning Update #1
Some notable news has come out over the past couple of days. Mark Andrews and Jerry Jeudy are not expected to play, among other updates.
The Stokastic data team has been finalizing NFL player projections all through the weekend. Here’s the most recent look at the updated NFL team stack ratings as of Sunday morning at 9 AM ET:
The Chargers have the top Overall rating on DraftKings at 22, with Cincinnati (19), Minnesota (19) and Miami (18) close behind for Week 1.
On FanDuel, Baltimore has moved atop the Overall ratings at a score of 29 following the Andrews injury update. The Chargers (24) and Bengals (19) are in the second and third spots overall, while the Colts (18) and Vikings (17) are near the top of the FD list too.
Top Week 1 NFL DFS Team Stacks: Los Angeles Chargers / Miami Dolphins
Both the Chargers and Dolphins are teams to target in Week 1, as this game has the highest total on the board at 51 points and should be competitive throughout. Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa are set to duke it out in what should be a fun one on Sunday afternoon.
If we look at Stokastic’s top stacks for the main slate, we see Los Angeles and Miami near the top of the overall ratings as of Friday evening. It should be noted the Dolphins aren’t rating quite as high on FanDuel as they are on DraftKings.
Overall, this should be a really fun game considering there are so many high-upside options in Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to incorporate into DFS lineups, and there are a number of ways to get different enough with your stacks to overcome the expected high ownership these two teams will carry. We also see a low expected Rush % for both LAC and MIA on the tool, which boosts the stacking appeal even more.
Top Stack Probability on DraftKings: MIA: 12.1% / LAC: 10.4%
Top Stack Probability on FanDuel: MIA: 5.5% / LAC: 10.2%
Top Value Probability on DraftKings: MIA: 6.8% / LAC: 7.6%
Top Value Probability on FanDuel: MIA: 4.0% / LAC: 8.8%
Expected Rush Percentage: MIA: 38.6% / LAC: 35.8%
Top Lower-Owned Week 1 NFL DFS Team Stack: Cincinnati Bengals
Stokastic’s top stacks data is a great resource for locating potentially lower-owned stacks that could end up making the difference in large-field tournaments.
What’s standing out in Week 1? The data is showing strong scores for Joe Burrow and the Bengals, who enter this road game against the Browns with an 11.2 percent chance of being the top stack on DraftKings, shortly behind the Dolphins overall. Stokastic’s projected ownership has the Bengals quarterback projected for 5.9 percent ownership on DraftKings at a price of $7,100, with Ja’Marr Chase at 14.2 percent, Tee Higgins at 7.9 percent and Tyler Boyd at 4.2 percent.
On FanDuel, Burrow is projected at 8.5 percent ownership, with Chase at 14.5 percent, Higgins at 9.3 and Boyd at 4.8. The Bengals have an Overall rating of 22 on DraftKings and 20 on FanDuel, putting them in the top three on both sites — as a reminder, this rating represents an overall numerical score that blends top stack probability, top value probability, and projected ownership. Cincinnati also owns the lowest expected rush percentage of any team on the slate.
Top Stack Probability on DraftKings: 11.2%
Top Stack Probability on FanDuel: 8.5%
Top Value Probability on DraftKings: 7.5%
Top Value Probability on FanDuel:Â 7.3%
Expected Rush Percentage:Â 33.8%
Other Week 1 NFL DFS Team Stacks to Consider
Using the top stacks tool as a reference, here are a couple of additional team stack recommendations for Week 1 NFL:
Minnesota Vikings
Top Stack Probability on DraftKings:Â 11.2%
Top Stack Probability on FanDuel:Â 6.9%
Top Value Probability on DraftKings: 7.5%
Top Value Probability on FanDuel: 6.6%
Expected Rush Percentage: 37.8%
Kirk Cousins and company are one of the better team targets on DraftKings but not as strong overall on FanDuel, according to Stokastic’s top stacks tool. Cousins is easy to mix and match with the likes of Justin Jefferson (14.5 percent projected ownership on DraftKings), Jordan Addison (3.5 percent), and T.J. Hockenson (8.6 percent) in this Week 1 matchup against the Bucs.
Seattle Seahawks
Top Stack Probability on DraftKings:Â 6.7%
Top Stack Probability on FanDuel:Â 7.8%
Top Value Probability on DraftKings:Â 6.0%
Top Value Probability on FanDuel: 7.0%
Expected Rush Percentage: 39.8%
Another interesting team to target with stacks is the Seahawks, who will be hoping for continued strong play out of Geno Smith after a hugely productive 2022. Adding talented rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba to a receiving corps that already features DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett gives the quarterback a lot of firepower to work with. Seattle enters the weekend favored by 4.5 points at home versus the Rams.
REMINDER: Stay up-to-date with all NFL player news and projection updates leading up to lock on Sunday to ensure you’re making the most informed lineup decisions possible.
Stokastic has plenty more free NFL DFS content on the NFL homepage and the best live shows and videos from your favorite analysts on our YouTube channel. You can also chat strategy with the team and the rest of our sharp community on the Stokastic Discord!
Good luck and enjoy Week 1!
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