3M Open First Round Leader Picks: Pendrith and Garnett Good Early Round Targets

The 3M Open has a good field this year, with a few top players who could use a solid week for momentum purposes before the playoffs. There are also plenty of mid-tier names who enter this week on the FedEx Cup bubble and are in desperate need of points so that they can advance to the playoffs. The past few seasons have had winners from all angles at this event in terms of the first-round leader market. Sungjae Im shared the first-round lead with Scott Piercy last year with Piercy going off at 100-1 or bigger. Both men shot 65 and both were in the morning wave. Nevertheless, onto some of our 3M Open DFS picks and more.

There have been some afternoon leaders at this event, so it is likely not a scenario to necessarily fade the afternoon starters altogether. Day 1 has low winds on the radar, which means it is unlikely there will be a huge wave differential. In terms of style, the large fairways have tended to favor big hitters but for a one-round scenario, I’d rather lean more heavily on the putting stats than off-the-tee metrics.

One thing that may get overlooked here is course history. Piercy has now led this event twice in four years (he has played every season since 2019) after Round 1 so being familiar with the venue and the slick bentgrass greens has paid off for him some respects.

As always, this column will use OddsShopper’s golf betting tools to identify the best value options for the 3M open first-round leader selections. In a field with just a few big names, it will of course be beneficial to look for a few longshot bets to add to cards.

3M Open First-Round Leader Bets

Taylor Pendrith First Round Leader (+6500) at DraftKings

Pendrith offers the best of both worlds this week. He comes in with some great form, after posting top-15 finishes at both the Rocket Mortgage and the Barbasol and is also a big hitter who should benefit from the setup. While he missed the cut last week at the quirky Barracuda event, the venue this week offers him a flat, expansive parkland course where he really should excel.

Pendrith was superb with his ball-striking in Detroit and Kentucky on easy setups, both venues that compare well to this week’s venue in many regards. He shot 64 in Detroit for the second season in a row and has proven that when he is in this kind of form the low rounds can add up in a hurry. His price is only inflated due to the missed cut last week and a solid 9:24 a.m. tee time may put him in a prime spot to go low early, which is exactly what he did last season in Detroit around this same time of year when he opened with a 64. He has a good price to back for a one-round outright play Thursday.

Justin Suh First Round Leader (+7000) and First Round Top 10 (+600) at BetMGM

Much like Pendrith last week, Suh was not really in contention at the Barbasol event which has made his betting prices this week much more palatable. He has shown flashes of brilliance this season, posting a sixth-place finish at the Players and a fifth at the Honda Classic. Since then he has made a ton of cuts mostly thanks to his supremely efficient putting which has kept him within the cut line most weeks this season.

Unlike Pendrith, Suh actually did make the cut last week in Colorado and he was much sharper with his irons there than previously, which is encouraging given how well he putts. He has an early tee time as well and provides solid double exposure to that early side of the draw at what are very nice odds on a quality player for Round 1.

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Greyson Sigg First Round Leader (+8000) at DraftKings and First Round Top 10 (+600) at BetMGM

Greyson Sigg looks like he is potentially close to putting it all together. He has finished top 20 in two of his last four starts and gained multiple strokes on approach now in each of his last four events. Sigg is a big hitter who can sometimes get wild off the tee but benefits from bigger fairways on a course like TPC Twin Cities.

He shot a 64 in Round 3 at this venue last season and likely would have contended for the win if he had dropped a few more putts. While it is hard to trust him to putt well for four days, a one-round spike on these greens is not that far-fetched. He has an afternoon tee time, which provides exposure to the afternoon draw, which is looking quite good itself at the moment with wind expected to be flat for most of Day 1.

3M Open First Round Leader Longshot Bets

Longshots often hit in the first-round market and are worth adding to betting cards. You can always use OddsShopper’s tools to check out and compare odds across the major sites.

Zecheng Dou First Round Leader (+12500) and First Round Top 10 (+1050) at BetMGM

While Dou can be an incredibly streaky player, he has shown a sharp game over the last month or so. He had rounds of 64 and 63 at TPC Craig Ranch a couple of months ago and also put in low rounds at both the Travelers and last week at the Barracuda. In a lot of ways, he has been the perfect one-round spike candidate over this stretch and has been gaining steam with his irons, an area of his game that has gained him strokes against the field now in five straight events. This will be his first time around TPC Twin Cities but with +1050 on offer at BetMGM for a top-10 this Thursday, he is worth a small-unit play.

Brice Garnett First Round Leader (+15000) and First Round Top 10 (+1200) at BetMGM

Brice Garnett is a player who I have yet to type a word about in 2023 until now. He actually has not played that poorly of late and comes into this year’s 3M Open having made the cut in seven of his last nine starts. He has also gained strokes on approach in each of his last three stroke play events and heated up with his putter at the Barbasol where he gained 2.4 strokes on the greens.

Garnett’s main appeal though is course history, as he has played this event four years running and has been insanely solid in doing so. Garnett’s never missed the cut at TPC Twin Cities and shot 68 or better in 11 of his 16 competitive rounds at this venue/course. With +1200 on offer for a first-round top-10, Garnett’s a fantastic first-round leader target to add on BetMGM this week.

Geoff Ulrich
Author

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