The NFL season continues to Week 4 with a full slate of NFL DFS action provided by DraftKings and FanDuel. This piece will examine the NFL DFS slate early in the week to find potential NFL DFS picks that will return the most value. Based on the salaries released by both DraftKings and FanDuel, we will go over some of the best Week 4 NFL DFS picks, but keep an eye on the news as the week progresses. A value play early in the week could turn into a bust chalk play due to injury or COVID-related illness. The best way to stay plugged in for all the news and notes throughout the week is by catching all the Awesemo NFL DFS Strategy and Picks shows on the Awesemo YouTube Channel.
NFL First Look: Week 4 NFL DFS Picks
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray, ARI vs. LAR ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
An early contender for MVP, Murray ranks third in the NFL with 1,005 yards passing and seven touchdowns. This puts his season average at 335 yards passing per game. He also has at least 19 yards rushing and a touchdown in every game this season. In Week 4 Murray takes on the Rams as 6-point underdogs in a game with a 54.5 total. Even as the third-most expensive quarterback, Murray’s upside cannot be denied in one of the week’s top game environments.
Jalen Hurts, KC vs. PHI ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
Hurts and the Eagles still have to play Monday Night Football against the Cowboys, but he is too cheap for his dual-threat skillset. Hurts only has 454 yards passing through two games, but his work on the ground creates a solid floor. Hurts has rushed for 62 and 82 yards in his first two starts to open the 2021 season. This mirrors his 2020 stats, where he averaged 79.3 yards rushing in three full starts for the Eagles. Philadelphia is a 6-point underdog at home to the Chiefs, but this game has a slate-leading 55-point total. Hurts is firmly in play this week.
Dak Prescott, CAR vs. DAL ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
Like Hurts, Prescott still has to play Monday Night Football, but he is in a phenomenal matchup against the Panthers in Week 4. The total currently sits at 50 points, with the Cowboys favored by 4. Carolina just lost its first-round corner Jaycee Horn for an extended period of time. Dallas continues to battle injuries with their own defense, forcing the Cowboys into pass-friendly game scripts. Prescott already has 640 yards passing this season, completing 76.5% of his passes for 7.5 yards per attempt. Prescott deserves consideration at this price point.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara, NYG vs. NO ($8,400 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
Through three games Kamara has played on 84% of New Orleans’ offensive snaps while also handling 84% of the running back carries. Kamara had at least 20 carries and four targets in two of three games this season. This week the Saints are 7.5-point home favorites over the Giants. New York is bottom seven in yards rushing allowed per attempt to opponents. With little competition in the backfield and a clear receiving role, Kamara is a contrarian running back to target near the top of pricing.
Alexander Mattison, CLE vs. MIN ($6,600 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
Dalvin Cook managed to play through an ankle injury in Week 2, but the ailment kept him out of Week 3. More importantly, Cook was downgraded midweek, suggesting the potential for another absence. In his place Mattison racked up 112 yards on 26 carries while adding another 59 yards receiving on six catches and eight targets. The Vikings are 1-point underdogs to the Browns in a game with a 52.5-point total. If Cook is ruled out again, Mattison immediately becomes one of the top plays on the entire slate.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC vs. PHI ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
Edwards-Helaire has now handled 75% of Kansas City’s running back attempts and is coming off his best game of the season, with 100 yards rushing on 17 carries. Edwards-Helaire has not seen a major role in the pass game, with just five targets, but he still leads the position group in pass involvement. Edwards-Helaire draws another favorable spot in Week 3, as the Chiefs are 6-point favorites over the Eagles in a game totaled at 55 points.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb, CAR vs. DAL ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Pending the status of Monday Night Football, Lamb looks like one of the most underpriced receivers on the main slate. Without Michael Gallup in the picture, Lamb accounts for a 28.6% target share and 43.5% air yards share in one of the NFL’s pass-heaviest offenses. Lamb also benefits from a potential shootout against the Panthers, who are down their best corner. The total currently sits at 50 points, giving Lamb an immense ceiling in this matchup.
D.J. Moore, CAR vs. DAL ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
On the other side of this game, Carolina also has a narrow target distribution following an injury to Christian McCaffrey. On the year Moore has a 30.7% target share and 40.8% air yards share. McCaffrey vacates another 17 targets, which should be distributed across the offense. Dallas continues to deal with injuries on defense, further sweetening a game environment already set at 50 total points. Moore already has 285 yards receiving with his level of opportunity and could potentially handle more in this spot.
Odell Beckham, CLE vs. MIN ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
Cleveland – Minnesota is one of the premier DFS targets, with the Browns favored by 1 point in a 52.5-point game. Cleveland also will keep targets confined to a few guys following the injury to Jarvis Landry. With Landry now on injured reserve, Beckham will function as the team’s clear lead target. Beckham caught five of nine targets for 77 yards in his debut, equating to a 31% target share. He also had a rush attempt, showing Cleveland plans to keep Beckham involved. Minnesota has hemorrhaged production to opposing receivers, ranking 27th in yards passing allowed per game. Beckham is simply too cheap for his role in this potential shootout.
Robert Woods, ARI vs. LAR ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
The Rams rank third in points per game (31.7) and only have a few reliable receivers, led by Cooper Kupp. Behind Kupp, Woods has a 20.4% target share and 21.9% air yards share. The Rams have gotten Woods involved on the ground, as he has four carries this year. While Woods has not topped 64 yards receiving in a game, he offers direct leverage off Kupp in tournaments. The Rams are 6-point favorites against the Cardinals in a game with a 54.5-point total. In DFS tournaments, Woods looks like a solid GPP pivot.
Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee, ARI vs. LAR ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
Higbee has positioned himself as a solid tournament pivot for the Rams. Through three games Higbee has played on 90.9% of snaps and ranks third on the team in targets. While this only equates to 12 targets, bigger games will come for Higbee in a high-performing offense. Fortunately, Higbee caught all five of his Week 3 targets for 40 yards and a touchdown. Of his 12 targets, three came in the red zone, giving Higbee a solid chance at a touchdown.
Noah Fant, BAL vs. DEN ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
The Broncos are 3-0 with one of the easiest strength of schedules to open the year. Beating the Jets 26-0 in Week 3, Denver took their foot off the gas early, contributing to a quiet, three-target day for Fant. However, Fant looks poised for a prominent offensive role in more competitive games without Jerry Jeudy in the offense. Fant’s 17 targets already equate to an 18% target share, with upside for more. Fant had target counts of eight and six in the Broncos first two games and should approach those numbers again in Week 4.
Gerald Everett, SEA vs. SF ($3,200 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)
Seattle takes on San Francisco as a 3-point underdog in a sneaky 51.5-point game total. Behind Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, Seattle does not have a clear WR3. Everett ranks third on the team in targets, with nine. While this falls well below the two alpha receivers, Everett still plays on 77% of Seattle’s offensive snaps. In Week 3 Everett showed increasing involvement, catching all five of his targets for 54 yards. For those looking at contrarian options outside the top two pass catchers, Everett fits the mold and fills a weaker overall position.
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