It is just a five-game slate tonight as we have a Vegas game starting earlier, so the NHL DFS picks are few and far between. We will key in on a few important situations, providing options across the pricing spectrum. As always, Stokastic subscribers should check our Discord for breaking line/injury news, particularly at warmups. Let’s look at our NHL DFS picks for tonight, including New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Jack Hughes (NJD vs. COL): DraftKings – $6,200 | FanDuel – $7,300
The slow start from Jack Hughes looks to be over with as he’s registered five points in his last five games, totaling 23 shots on goal. That last part is crucial, as he’s generating even more shot attempts per 60 minutes this season than he did last year when he managed 3.4 shots per game. A high shot volume is combined with quality chances as his individual expected goals rate has risen nearly 25% from 2021-22. His goal rate will climb as those chances start going in but the shot volume provides a high floor to work with regardless.
With Colorado in town, Jack Hughes should see a fair amount of the Avalanche’s second line, which has struggled this year without Nazem Kadri and Gabriel Landeskog. They are allowing 3.3 expected goals and 3.7 actual goals against per 60 minutes, both marks being well below average. New Jersey’s center should have the advantage offensively in this matchup.
On the year, Hughes is averaging over 20 minutes a night with 4.4 shots per game. His shot-happy nature with his ice time means he can be used as a one-off in tournaments. Of course, bringing along his line mates for a stack is suitable as well.
Pierre-Luc Dubois (WPG at ARI): DraftKings – $4,900 | FanDuel – $6,200
Despite Winnipeg playing the second of a back-to-back on the road, they are in a good situation this evening. Arizona is near the bottom of the league in expected goals and actual goals against at 5-on-5. The Jets have had their own problems at even strength but boast two legitimate scoring lines, one of them centered by Pierre-Luc Dubois.
On the season, Dubois is averaging more shots per 60 minutes than he ever has. His ice time is down from last year by roughly 90 seconds per game, but the improved shot rate has him at a career-best three shots per game. A lot of that has come from the power play, where he’s shooting nearly 75% more often than last year. It is still early, but he has been much more involved on the PP than he was 12 months ago.
Going into Arizona is the appeal here tonight, clearly. The penalty kill has improved from last year but they 5-on-5 defensive metrics are still last in the league. Particularly at his price on DK, he can be used as a one-off, but bringing along his line mates (even strength or power play) is likely a better idea as the Jets are tied for the highest team total on the slate.
Winger
Mikko Rantanen (COL at NJD): DraftKings – $7,100 | FanDuel – $9,200
An injured Landeskog has put more pressure on Colorado’s top wingers to produce and Mikko Rantanen has stepped up for the team. He has skated at least 20 minutes in six straight games, has nine points in seven contests, and is averaging over three shots an evening. His minutes on the top line and top power play are very valuable on this roster, and his point total belies how well they’re actually playing: Rantanen is on pace for 105 points and the top line is shooting a measly 1.8% at 5-on-5. There will be major positive regression coming for them and the Finn’s production should increase.
New Jersey’s Achilles’ heel for years now has been goaltending. Their last three seasons have seen 5-on-5 save percentage finishes of 23rd, 24th, 32nd, and landing last so far this year. It is a fickle position where anyone can have a great night in any single contest, but they need to show improvement before we can bank on it. While the Devils do not take many penalties, the Colorado looks as elite as they ever have in the early parts of this year. Rantanen and his line mates require our attention for this slate.
Kyle Connor makes a nice, cheaper wing option on FanDuel as he leads our top-end projections in expected FD points, even as he’s considerably less expensive than Rantanen.
Clayton Keller (ARI vs. WPG): DraftKings – $4,600 | FanDuel – $5,800
It will not be very often we have the hapless Coyotes in this article. However, we are looking at a 5-game slate and a Winnipeg team that will not have all-world goalie Connor Hellebuyck in net. On the year, Winnipeg is near the bottom of the NHL in expected goals against when short-handed, as they were a year ago. Hellebuyck missing in goal should help the Arizona power play.
Clayton Keller has 70 points in his last 73 games, dating back to last year, which feels like a miracle on this roster. His shot rate per game is down but it’s a function of ice time and bad luck missing the net in a small sample. Not having Nick Schmaltz on his line doesn’t help but Keller’s playmaking is elite, and he does shoot the puck a reasonable amount. At this price, he is in consideration for tonight.
The next question is how to use Keller for tournaments. Travis Boyd skates with him in all offensive situations so he can be used as well, but defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere is very involved with the power play factoring in on 20 of the team’s 23 power-play goals since arriving in the desert. He can be added as well.
Seth Jarvis (CAR vs. NYI): DraftKings – $3,900 | FanDuel – $5,800
Seth Jarvis hasn’t been elite to start the year but two goals in six games does work out to over 25 goals in a season. His problem is a lack of assists, with one in those contests. He is generating a lot of good shot quality, though, ranking inside the 90th percentile by individual expected goals. By team expected goals, his line is generating nearly 4.3 per 60 minutes, and nearly 5.0 actual goals per 60 minutes. These are huge offensive numbers and speaks to the upside they all have.
The New York Islanders are not the defensive juggernaut they once were. They are last by expected goals against this season, a year after finishing in the bottom-10 by the same metric. As far as 5-on-5 play is concerned, the only issue is Islanders goaltender Ilya Sorokin, who is among the best in the league.
At his price, Jarvis does not need a lot to bring significant DFS value tonight. The lack of power-play correlation with his line mates, and his low cost, mean he can be rostered by himself. However, using him at least with Teuvo Teravainen, with whom he shares a PP unit, is an option, or just a full-line stack with Sebastian Aho.
For a cheaper winger on FanDuel, Ilya Mikheyev (VAN, $4,000) tops our projections for wingers priced at $4,000 or less as he skates on Vancouver’s second line, likely their best offensive line.
Defense
Brent Burns (CAR vs. NYI): DraftKings – $5,700 | FanDuel – $6,200
Despite an ice-time drop from his recent years back in San Jose, Brent Burns currently has a four-year high in shots per game. That is because he’s shooting the puck considerably more than he had been, with his shot attempt rate up nearly 50% from last season, and over 50% from two seasons ago. He hasn’t scored yet, but the goals will come, and it sets a high floor for peripherals, even as he’s blocking far fewer shots.
Sorokin in net for the Islanders makes this a tough goaltending matchup but as mentioned in the Jarvis section, this team is not good defensively. If Sorokin isn’t elite, there is goal-scoring upside for all Hurricanes skaters, including their power-play quarterback. At his DK price-point, his value ranks ahead of other high-priced blue liners like Shayne Gostisbehere and Zach Werenski. He is perfectly fine as a one-off tonight or as part of a line stack.
Ryan Graves (NJD vs. COL): DraftKings – $3,200 | FanDuel – $3,800
Ryan Graves is coming off his best game of the season, with two assists, one shot, and four blocks. His shot rate per game isn’t high – 1.4 per night – but he’s also missing the net more than usual. He usually lands 45% of his shot attempts on goal, a number that sits closer to 35% this year. He should start hitting the target more often, leading to more shots on goal, leading to a higher peripheral floor, which is important for a punt-type option like this.
The issue relying on him is ice time, as he’s fluctuated between 13-22 minutes on the season. However, the Devils have used seven defensemen often and that can cut into ice time for all blue liners. With six rearguards dressing tonight, he should be around 18 minutes. Among low-priced d-men on DK tonight ($3,000 – $4,000), Graves is second by value in our projections. He is fine as a low-end option this evening.
Goalie
Ilya Sorokin (NYI at CAR): DraftKings – $7,100 | FanDuel – $7,500
Though we have named a couple Carolina skaters in this column, we have reiterated how difficult a matchup Sorokin presents. He is 1 of 3 goalies we have projected for over 30 saves tonight but has the lowest expected goals against of all three.
The only goalie in the NHL with a better high-danger save percentage at 5-on-5 than Sorokin over the last three seasons is Rangers standout Igor Shesterkin. He trails only Shesterkin in Goals Saved Above Expected, per Evolving Hockey, in that span as well. Carolina is good enough to light up any goalie, but Sorokin is very reasonably priced across the industry and has a very high upside if he doesn’t get shelled.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
PIT1: Crosby-Rakell-Rust
There are new lines for the Penguins thanks to the injury to Jake Guentzel. We would like to have him on the top line, but it’s still a good matchup for Pittsburgh’s top trio. They are getting a Vancouver team playing its second game in as many nights, which means backup goalie Spencer Martin and not starter Thatcher Demko. That is a good start for the Penguins.
Beyond that, they get the J.T. Miller line in a shutdown matchup, and he and Bo Horvat have awful defensive numbers dating back to last season – 2.9 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, controlling just 30% of the expected goals. This line will carry a lot of ownership but all three are on the top power-play unit and it is a good spot heading into Vancouver.
BOS2: Hall-Zacha-Pastrnak
Be careful here as Boston is on a back-to-back and that means no morning lines. We may not get any line combinations until warmups. That is notable because David Krejci left last night’s game after taking a high-stick and did not return. Boston had to shuffle their lines around a lot, though Pavel Zacha did jump into the top-6 mix. For now, this trio is our guess but keeping tabs on what lines will be could change a lot here. If David Pastrnak moves to the top line, this trio can be discarded.
With all that said, Columbus has changed up their lines and Boston’s second line could see the top line from Columbus, now featuring Jack Roslovic at center and not Boone Jenner. Roslovic and Patrik Laine do not have good defensive numbers in their history while David Pastrnak and Taylor Hall, without either of Boston’s top-2 centers on their line, still generate 3.6 goals per 60 minutes. This line is one of our best leverage spots on the night, per our Top Stacks, just pay attention to lineup information.
*Additional Stats from Natural Stat Trick
