It is another huge slate as we have 12 games tonight in the NHL, giving us a wide breadth of options to pick from. A number of stars are featured tonight, including Connor McDavid in Edmonton and Alex Ovechkin Washington as he chases down Gordie Howe’s career goal-scoring mark. There are illnesses abound around the league and that means Stokastic members are strongly encouraged to check our subscriber-only Discord through the day for lineup/injury news. Let’s dive into the NHL DFS picks for tonight.
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays | Dec. 15
Center
Mikko Rantanen (COL vs. BUF): DraftKings – $7,600 | FanDuel – $9,800
The Colorado Avalanche are starting to get healthy and that has given Mikko Rantanen good line mates to work with in Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen. In the four games since the injury to Nathan MacKinnon, Rantanen has four goals – including a hat trick – and 12 shots on target, skating over 22:30 on average.
Buffalo is in town tonight and that gives Colorado a good matchup. Over the last month, the Sabres are 28th in shots allowed per minute and 24th in goals allowed per minute. Sabres goalie Craig Anderson is sporting a .933 save percentage in his last six appearances (five starts) and that has kept the goals against from looking even worse. Without his superlative goaltending, Buffalo would be much closer to the bottom of the league, and teams can’t rely on great goaltending every night.
Among all centers on the slate on DraftKings, Rantanen is grading out second in our projections, even higher than Auston Matthews. He can be used as a one-off option but given the perfect correlation with his line mates, tournament players should heavily consider a line stack.
Rantanen is listed as a winger on FanDuel so for DFS players over on that site, consider Steven Stamkos (TBL, $9,900). He also faces a team that struggles to keep the puck out of their net in Columbus and has 21 points on his current 14-game point streak.
Christian Dvorak (MTL vs. ANA): DraftKings – $3,600 | FanDuel – $4,700
On the topic of goals against over the last month, Montreal and Anaheim are 25th and 31st in goals against per minute in that span. Considering the cheap prices of some of the players here, there could be higher-than-usual ownership on some depth pieces.
One of those depth pieces is Christian Dvorak. Teammate Sean Monahan was injured five games ago and in the four full games since, Dvorak is averaging 20:41 in ice time per game, skating at least 20 minutes in three of them. His three highest TOI games of the season have been among his last four played as his role has increased greatly due to injury. He has three points and 13 shots on goal in those contests, so the production and peripherals have risen as well.
Among all centers priced under $4,500 on DraftKings tonight, Dvorak is third in our projections, providing tremendous value. He is second on FanDuel for pivots carrying a price tag under $5,000. He has shown good chemistry with winger Mike Hoffman, as they help the Canadiens generate 2.7 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, carrying nearly 57% of the expected goal share. Dvorak can be used by himself but a duo with Hoffman is fine as a mini-stack in tournaments.
Winger
David Pastrnak (BOS vs. LAK): DraftKings – $8,700 | FanDuel – $10,300
David Pastrnak’s production has been on a slide of late, but even his downturns are impressive: five goals and seven points in his last six games, averaging 5.7 shots per game. To think that is him going through a rough stretch speaks to the upside the tremendous scoring flank has.
The Czech winger has been reunited on the top line in Boston and that has been one of the top trios in the league for a few years now: 3.2 expected goals and 4.3 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over their last 750 minutes together. Los Angeles visiting tonight means the Los Angeles goaltending is visiting tonight, and they have been the Kings’ kryptonite: .865 save percentage over the last month (31st in the NHL) and an .875 save percentage on the season, last in the league. Boston’s top line, and Pastrnak specifically, being able to generate so much offense is going to put this awful net-minding to the test.
How to use Pastrnak tonight is the real question. His shot volume and prodigious scoring means he’s in play as a one-off option, but he does have perfect correlation with his line mates. They are very expensive on both sites but rate as one of our top lines on the night by our Top Stacks tool.
Jonathan Marchessault (VGK at CHI): DraftKings – $6,600 | FanDuel – $6,900
Vegas center Jack Eichel has played just once in the team’s last five games and that has put more scoring pressure on Jonathan Marchessault and the Vegas second line. Marchessault has responded well with five goals and 19 shots in his last five contests. The ice time has been erratic, skating under 15 minutes and over 19 minutes in separate games in that span, but he’s shooting and scoring regardless of the ice time he’s received.
The matchup against Chicago is clearly the appeal. On the season, the Blackhawks are 29th by shots allowed and 27th by goals allowed per minute in all situations. Over just the last month, those numbers are 29th and 32nd. The penalty kill has been similarly awful so there are no matchup concerns here for Marchessault and his line mates.
The soon-to-be 32-year-old winger ranks second in our winger projections on DraftKings for players priced under $7,000 while he’s first on FanDuel for those priced under $8,000. He is providing tremendous value in a fantastic matchup and that makes him a solid one-off option for DFS players. He can be used in a line stack with William Karlsson and Reilly Smith but just beware that Marchessault is clearly the finisher on that line as the others struggle for consistent shot volume.
Brayden Schenn (STL at EDM): DraftKings – $3,900 | FanDuel – $5,300
Though he was never a high shot-volume player, Brayden Schenn is down near 1.7 shots per game over the last couple of seasons. The lack of shooting has led to a depressed price and that is one of the attractive points for using him tonight.
Another attractive point is the matchup going into Edmonton. On the season, the Oilers are the second-most penalized team in the league, giving up 3.9 power plays per game to the opponent (league average is around 3.3). To compound the problem, Edmonton is 30th by shots allowed while down a man over the last month and that, combined with the penchant for penalties, has given them 10 power-play goals against in their last 14 games. St. Louis’s power play has struggled at times this year, but this is a good matchup for them.
In 175 minutes together spanning the last two seasons at 5-on-5, Schenn and winger Pavel Buchnevich have helped the Blues generate 3.0 expected goals and 3.1 actual goals. He is seventh in our winger projections on DraftKings for players priced under $3,900 and that makes him a solid value tonight. He can be used as a salary-saving one-off option for those playing in tournaments.
Schenn is listed as a center on FanDuel, so for a cheap wing option on that site, DFS players should look to Frank Vatrano (ANA, $4,700). He is potentially skating with Anaheim star Troy Terry tonight – we’ll likely have to wait for warmups – and is averaging three shots per game over his last 10 contests.
Defense
Kris Letang (PIT at FLA): DraftKings – $5,400 | FanDuel – $5,600
It has been a tough year for Kris Letang both on and off the ice as he’s sporting his lowest points-per-game mark in over a decade and suffered a stroke a few weeks ago (from which he’s recovered). He is shooting 2.2% against a three-year average of 6.1% so there’s likely positive regression to come and he does have seven block bonuses on DraftKings in his 23 games played.
Going into Florida could present a good matchup for Pittsburgh. Panthers winger Matthew Tkachuk was missing at morning skate, and that could mean their top performer missing from the lineup. At 5-on-5 over the last month, Florida is 21st by shots against per minute, just slightly better than Montreal. They are also tied for the third-most penalized team in the league. Letang’s price has dropped all season long and he’s now very palatable on both sites. He easily leads our FanDuel projections for defensemen priced under $6,000 and is fourth on DK by the same parameter. He is a mid-priced option for DFS tournament players this evening.
Tyson Barrie (EDM vs. STL): DraftKings – $4,900 | FanDuel – $6,000
Edmonton’s Tyson Barrie is a defenseman whose production lives and dies with the power play: two-thirds of his points this season have been with the man advantage, an increase from 51% last season. That is a good thing for Barrie on this slate as St. Louis has a penalty kill that is 25th by shots allowed and 30th by goals allowed per minute over the last month. On the season, the only team giving up more power-play goals per minute than the Blues are the Ducks. St. Louis’s saving grace is being the least penalized team in the league, but Edmonton’s elite power play does not need a lot of chances to shred the opponent’s penalty kill.
Barrie is second in blue liner projections for those with a price tag under $5,000 on DraftKings, and second on FanDuel for those priced $6,000 or less. He has skated at least 20 minutes in eight of his last 10 games, posting nine points in that span. Barrie can be included in an Edmonton stack tonight in place of one of the expensive forward options in an effort to lower the stack’s cost.
Goalie
Tristan Jarry (PIT at FLA): DraftKings – $7,800 | FanDuel – $8,500
Goaltender Tristan Jarry is one of the options tonight that has all of a reasonable price, a good projection, and a solid expectation of shots allowed. He is currently leading our expected saves leaderboard, nearly 2.5 more saves than the next-closest option (which is roughly the same gap between second and 20th). That could change depending on the status of Matthew Tkachuk, but Jarry could see a lot of rubber regardless, and that’s a big reason for his recommendation.
The Stokastic DraftKings projections have Jarry as the highest-rated goalie priced $8,000 or less, making him one of the top value options on the evening. He is less of a value on FanDuel but is still in play, so Jarry is one of the top plays in net for the slate.
For those on FanDuel looking for a bit of a better value, consider Vitek Vanecek (NJD, $7,600) who is fourth in our projections but has a more reasonable cost.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
TOR1: Matthews-Nylander-Bunting
Toronto is in New York to face the Rangers and the home team has changed up their lines of late, putting Artemi Panarin with Mika Zibanejad. While the Rangers don’t hard-match at home like some other teams, the top line does see a lot of the opposing top line when they get last change. That top-line duo – without Chris Kreider – has been porous for the Rangers, giving up 2.7 expected goals against while controlling just 38% of the expected goal share when they’ve been on the ice over the last two seasons. The Matthews line has been arguably the top line in hockey over the last month, averaging four points per game between them since Thanksgiving alone.
Due to their price and the availability of other expensive lines tonight, our Top Stacks tool has this Toronto trio as one of the top leverage spots on the evening, ranking fourth and seventh on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. They are a nice option for those not looking to shell out a couple extra thousand – give or take – for Edmonton or Boston.
WPG1: Wheeler-Scheifele-Perfetti
Until this line shows signs of slowing down offensively, they are always in play for us in a home matchup. Since being assembled, this Winnipeg trio is generating 3.3 expected goals and 3.9 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. In a true sign of offensive potency, Blake Wheeler has 33 shots in his last 10 games, and he’s not had a season above 2.9 shots per game in five years. They are playing well and producing results, the mix we look for in DFS.
Nashville is in town and that gives this Winnipeg line some matchups against the opposing top line. That line for Nashville, with Mikael Granlund, is allowing more expected goals at 5-on-5 than the depth and sits with 3.7 goals against per 60 minutes. It is a good matchup for Mark Scheifele and his line mates, and their ownership is projected anywhere from 3-6% between DK and FD. They are one of the mid-priced options to target on this slate.
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
