There are six games in the NHL this Friday night, providing a reasonable number of options from which to make DFS picks. A lot of the big names from Thursday night are not playing Friday, but there could be a lot of important returns. Winnipeg may get back any (or all) of Nikolaj Ehlers, Blake Wheeler and Cole Perfetti, while Washington could welcome back either Tom Wilson or Nicklas Backstrom, or both. For that reason, Stokastic subscribers are strongly encouraged to check in with the members-only Discord, particularly at warmups, for up-to-date lineup information.
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NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Tomas Hertl (SJ at ANA): DraftKings – $6,200 | FanDuel – $7,400
San Jose has seen some significant line changes over the last few weeks, but they have gone back to their old top line of Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier and Kevin Labanc. That has been an excellent trio for the Sharks this season, generating 3.2 expected goals and 4.7 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, skating nearly 260 minutes together. Those are excellent offensive numbers and Hertl, currently leading the team in points per 60 minutes at five-on-five, scores more often and takes more shots with Meier on his wing than without.
Going into Anaheim is a big part of the appeal. The Ducks are bottom 5 in the NHL, whether looking at the entire season or just the last six weeks, in both shots allowed and goals against per minute. They are a porous defensive roster, and it allows fantasy options to often flourish against them. In three games against Anaheim already this season, Hertl has one goal and six assists, and that speaks to the upside for him and his linemates.
The reasonable prices and wonderful matchup are going to drive a lot of ownership San Jose’s way, as Hertl may push 20% in ownership. He shouldn’t be disregarded on a short-ish slate, though.
Max Domi (CHI vs. ARI): DraftKings – $5,100 | FanDuel – $5,700
It will be infrequent that Chicago Blackhawks skaters are listed here given that the team has the lowest scoring rate in the league. However, Arizona is in town on their second game of a road back-to-back, getting shelled in Philadelphia last night 6-2. Chicago is a poor defensive team, but Arizona is just ahead of them by goals allowed per minute this season and gives up more shots per minute. This is one of the few matchups that could be beneficial to the Blackhawks.
As for Max Domi specifically, he is at least on pace for 25 goals and over 55 points. That is reasonable production on a team that is usually so poor at creating offence. The key to this matchup is the Chicago power play; the top unit is scoring 9.3 goals per 60 minutes, which is a good number and really good for a team this bad. Arizona is the most penalized team in the league and give up the third-most shots and fourth-most goals per minute when down a man. It is a good spot for Domi and his power play linemates.
Watch for lineup updates, as Patrick Kane and Andreas Athanasiou missed practice Thursday due to maintenance and illness, respectively. If they are out, it could make things a lot tougher on Domi.
Winger
Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG vs. TB): DraftKings – $6,600 | FanDuel – $5,700
Friday night is the re-debut of Nikolaj Ehlers, as he was injured in the second game of the season and hasn’t played since mid-October. Over the prior three seasons, Ehlers was 13th in the league in points per minute at five-on-five, ranking ahead of names like Johnny Gaudreau and Aleksander Barkov. His issue has long been getting consistent top power play time and he appears set to line up on the team’s top power play unit, as he had in the early portions of this season. That additional offensive role could legitimately make him a 35-goal, 90-point winger over a full year.
Ehlers is expected to skate on a line with Kyle Connor and over the last three seasons, when skating with the linemates he has, the team generates 2.9 expected goals and 3.6 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. That is very good offensive production, if a little below elite, but the Danish flank is not priced as an elite option, either.
Stokastic fantasy point projections have Ehlers sixth among all wingers tonight on DraftKings and eighth on FanDuel. He is cheaper on FanDuel, relatively speaking, so he’s a much better value on that site but his typical shot volume and top offensive roles means he can be used as a one-off, or part of a stack, in tournament formats.
Adam Henrique (ANA vs. SJ): DraftKings – $5,000 | FanDuel – $5,800
Anaheim has changed up their lines a bit, as they’ve done at times this season, and it has left Adam Henrique alongside Troy Terry and Mason McTavish. By some playmaking metrics, tracked by Corey Sznajder, Terry is far-and-away the best playmaker in Anaheim this season, so it leaves Henrique next to someone who can get him the puck in good offensive spots consistently.
With their new lineup combinations, Henrique no longer has shutdown duties at home. With San Jose’s top line off the ice, expected goals against at five-on-five rise by 14% and actual goals against rise by 27%. Not being used in a shutdown role gives Henrique a better five-on-five matchup tonight against a fellow basement team. That, among other reasons, is why he has a top-10 projection on DraftKings among all wingers despite being priced closer to 20th, with similar ratios on FanDuel. That gives him good value for this slate on both sites.
The key tonight is how to use him. He is correlated on the power play with his linemates so using him as a one-off in tournaments may not be ideal. Henrique can be used by himself but is likely best used in some sort of stack.
T.J. Oshie (WSH vs. NSH): DraftKings – $4,000 | FanDuel – $4,900
It is a battle of two teams that played Thursday night having to play their second in as many nights. Nashville is on the road for both their contests so that favors Washington a bit, but that’s something that will be considered in both projections and Vegas’s numbers.
One bit of news to watch for here is that Wilson and Backstrom, both injured all season for the Capitals, may return tonight. That could change up lines drastically but for now, assume T.J. Oshie is skating with Dylan Strome, as he was last night. That duo has been solid for the Caps, generating 2.5 expected goals and 5.4 actual goals per 60 minutes in a small sample together. Nashville will be using their backup goalie and are giving up the second-most shots per minute at five-on-five since Thanksgiving. If the goaltending doesn’t turn in superb performances, as they did last night, the Caps could fill the net.
Among all wingers priced under $5,000 on FanDuel tonight, Oshie leads projections at 10.5 fantasy points. He also leads flanks priced $4,000 or less on DraftKings. He has a versatile role and can be moved around the lineup, but has a firm hold on a top power play role and gets a great home matchup.
Defense
Gustav Forsling (FLA at DET): DraftKings – $5,100 | FanDuel – $6,800
Despite not having a top power play role outside of when a rash of injuries hit, Gustav Forsling has a higher DraftKings fantasy points/game mark than teammate Aaron Ekblad and is considerably cheaper on DraftKings. On the season, he is pacing for double-digit goals and over 50 points, filling the role left behind by MacKenzie Weegar’s departure. He is a dynamic offensive defenseman that helps generate offense from the blue line and faces a Detroit team that, at its best recently, still ranks 25th by expected goals against at five-on-five since Thanksgiving.
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On DraftKings, Forsling is ranked 10th in Stokastic’s projections among blue liners and is $800 cheaper than the 10th-most expensive rearguard. He is a fine mid-priced play on that site.
Over on FanDuel, where Ekblad is $1,000 cheaper than Forsling, it is Ekblad that presents the better value proposition.
Noah Hanifin (CGY vs. NYI): DraftKings – $4,900 | FanDuel – $5,700
The New York Islanders played last night in Edmonton, losing 4-2, and that means a road back-to-back for the Eastern Conference team, almost certainly without Ilya Sorokin in net. Those two factors, among others, give Calgary the second-highest home implied goal total (3.3) with only Washington (3.5) being higher.
Noah Hanifin has seen his production decline a bit of late, with just 3 points and 22 shots in his 11 games since a two-goal performance nearly a month ago. He does have 21 blocks in there, though, with four DraftKings block bonuses. He does not strictly need point production to have a good fantasy night and that versatility is nice to have for a moderately priced option. His projection is second among DraftKings d-men priced under $5,000 and fourth on FanDuel between those priced less than $6,000. He can be used by himself in any format.
Goalie
John Gibson (ANA vs. SJ): DraftKings – $7,400 | FanDuel – $7,400
John Gibson’s last start, a 35-save home shutout against Dallas, shows the upside that goalies on teams allowing a lot of shots can have. Even with Gibson giving up the second-most goals per 60 minutes of any goalie with at least 15 starts this season, he has more DraftKings points per game than starters on better teams like Ville Husso, Sergei Bobrovsky and Jacob Markstrom. Gibson is projected to top the slate in saves, per Stokastic’s GoalieStats section but is also projected for the third-most goals against. If he can avoid getting lambasted and giving up five or six goals, he stands a reasonable chance of a good fantasy performance on DraftKings. He should be one of the targets for tournament net-minders tonight.
If FanDuel users want a similarly priced option with a stronger projection, Markstrom (CGY, $7,300) leads Stokastic’s FanDuel goalies tonight, the lone net-minder carrying a median projection over 20 FanDuel points.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
FLA1: Tkachuk-Barkov-Verhaeghe
This line from Florida is entering the same territory as the top line from Toronto; they are playing so well that, until there is a radical downshift in on-ice performance, or they are broken up, they are often in play for tournaments. As a trio this season, in over 130 minutes together at five-on-five, they are generating 4.9 expected goals and actual goals per 60 minutes. Only Carter Verhaeghe is not on the top power play unit among these three forwards, and the Detroit penalty kill is 24th by shots against and 30th by goals against per minute since Thanksgiving.
The Stokastic Top Stacks tool has this Florida line second on the slate in top-2 stack probability but outside the top 5 by ownership on both sites. They should be heavily considered as a primary stack option for this evening.
CGY1: Toffoli-Lindholm-Dube
A big problem for Calgary most of this season has been generating quality chances at five-on-five. That hasn’t been as big an issue of late, especially for this Calgary trio, as they’ve generated 3.5 expected goals and 5.7 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five since being assembled last month. They have 29 points in nine games since they were lined up together as all three players have seen a big production increase with this combination.
Stokastic’s Top Stacks tool has this Flames trio as the second-highest top-2 stack probability for any line on DraftKings priced under $16,000 and the second highest of any line on FanDuel with a priced under $19,000. They are one of the top targets for DFS tournament players looking for a mid-priced stack with a strong projection and reasonable ownership.
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