Tonight, this Thursday, October 13, we have the largest slate of the NHL season to date, with 10 games on the docket. DFS players newer to the NHL should expect large slates on Tuesday/Thursday/Saturday and smaller slates in between. Slates of this size bring ownership projections to the forefront, something that can be accessed by Stokastic subscribers. It also means lots of breaking news near respective puck drops, and all this news is shared in our Discord for subscribers as well. It is a good way to stay on top of lineup changes without searching for the information.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Jack Eichel (VGK vs. CHI): DraftKings – $6,300 | FanDuel – $7,600
Vegas’s top center had a good first game of the season, scoring once on seven shots. Jack Eichel certainly had a down 2021-22 season when he returned from injury, but he was still landing a massive 3.9 shots per game. The big issue with his overall point total was a lack of secondary assists at 5-on-5. He managed just 0.12 per 60 minutes against a three-year average of 0.57. Secondary helpers tend to be random from season to season for forwards, so a big rebound here is in order. Combined with a high shot rate, there’s a very productive fantasy center here.
More than anything, it’s the matchup against Chicago that draws us here. They are a year removed from being a bottom-3 team by 5-on-5 expected goal and actual goal share, with a roster that did not improve in the offseason. Having also played last night, they are on a road back-to-back with backup goalie Alex Stalock in net. All signs are pointing to a very positive matchup for Eichel and the Golden Knights. With his expected shot volume, he is fine to use in any format on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Casey Mittelstadt (BUF vs. OTT): DraftKings – $3,400 | FanDuel – $4,300
It feels like a make-or-break season for the young Buffalo center. He has only averaged 34 points per 82 games in his four full-ish seasons, with underperformance and injury hindering him at nearly every turn. He is being given all the opportunity needed to succeed to start this season, though. He is lined up on the second line with Jack Quinn – a very highly-touted prospect – and Alex Tuch, who has averaged 55 points/82 games over his last two seasons. He is also being slotted on the top power-play unit with the team’s top stars, providing him with what he needs to be successful offensively.
One thing Mittelstadt does well is get through the neutral zone in control of the puck. Per tracking data from the Patreon of Corey Sznajder, he’s been well above average over the last two seasons entering the zone with control. It is one step to getting some offensive chances from or for his line mates. He has yet to prove himself a high-end producer but he is not being priced as such just yet. With all the cushy slotting, Mittelstadt is setup for success at a very reasonable price. He should be considered in Buffalo’s power play or second-line stacks on any site tonight.
Winger
Bryan Rust (PIT vs. ARI): DraftKings – $6,500 | FanDuel – $6,500
Even on a slate with 19 other teams, there should be a fair bit of Pittsburgh ownership tonight; their top two lines should flirt with 10% ownership, per our early projections. With so many options, keying in on a high-owned team is something we have to consider, but this is a great matchup for Pittsburgh. Arizona was among the two or three worst defensive teams a year ago and did not bring in any help to bolster the roster. They are looking 3-4 years down the road and that leaves a porous lineup night after night.
For Bryan Rust specifically, having Evgeni Malkin healthy and in the lineup is crucial for him. Over the previous three seasons, Pittsburgh scores 37% more often when that duo is on the ice together than when Rust is skating without Malkin. That and he is also expected to get top power play minutes is a huge boon to his fantasy upside, and his 5-on-5 line should be able to generate as well. All this puts him top-12 among winger projections on both DK and FD for us tonight.
How to use Rust is another question. Using him as a tournament one-off is threading the needle a bit thin but they will have a lot of ownership. Just full-line stacking or using him with the PP stars is the path here.
Ondrej Palat (NJD at PHI): DraftKings – $4,400 | FanDuel – $5,700
The downside for Ondrej Palat in DFS is that he does not shoot very much. His 6.8 shots per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over the last three seasons is roughly in the middle of the league and that is not likely to change much in his move to New Jersey from Tampa Bay. What has changed for him is his special teams opportunity – he is slated to feature on the team’s top power-play unit. Unless there were significant injuries, Palat got inconsistent power-play time with the Lightning. Now with the Devils, he is at least starting on their top PP quintet. It is a welcome boost to his fantasy profile.
More than that, he is set to skate alongside Jack Hughes, who is coming off breakout season. Hughes is one of the league’s best young offensive talents and that gives Palat a great offensive opportunity night in and night out. Going into Philadelphia, a team missing their best forward and defenseman, is a great matchup for this team. At his price, Palat is fine as a one-off but with the high correlation with Hughes, using at least those two in a tournament stack is a solid strategy tonight.
Dillon Dub̩ (CGY vs. COL): DraftKings Р$3,300 | FanDuel Р$3,900
Calgary has a lot of new, high-end faces in town to replace the ones that left (or were traded) and Dillon Dubé may be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He is slated to start the season with new center Nazem Kadri – coming off a career-best 87-point season – and Andrew Mangiapane, who broke out himself with 35 goals in 2021-22. Dubé has not had huge offensive seasons himself but did have 18 goals in 79 games a year ago, skating third- and fourth-line minutes. Now that he’s been moved up the lineup and skating with two good offensive players, Dubé’s getting an opportunity to take the next step as a 24-year-old.
Colorado is in town tonight, but they are playing their second game in as many nights, having faced Chicago last night at home. With Kadri gone, the Avalanche are relying on second-year player Alex Newhook as their second-line center, a matchup that should favor Dubé’s line given the B2B situation. At his price, the Flames winger is fine to use by himself in GPP formats but is certainly acceptable to use as part of a line stack as well.
Defense
Noah Dobson (NYI vs. FLA): DraftKings – $5,700 | FanDuel – $6,000
It was a breakout season a year ago for Noah Dobson. Despite a lot of issues for the team between scheduling, injuries, and time off, he posted 13 goals and 51 points in 80 games. What makes his fantasy profile even more enticing is the fact that he jumped to 2.4 shots and 1.9 blocks per game. On DraftKings, he hit the shot bonus 11 times and the block bonus 25 times, registering both in the same game on four occasions. Even without being an upper-tier producer (yet), he brings peripherals that more than make up for it.
For that reason, he is a better option on DraftKings than FanDuel. However, they’re hosting a Florida team that allowed more goals per minute last year than this very New York squad and lost their second-best blue liner via trade. Dobson is fine on both sites but the peripherals make him appealing on DK.
Thomas Chabot (OTT) should be considered on FanDuel, as he grades out as a slightly better value than Dobson and is not so reliant on peripherals for fantasy value.
Calen Addison (MIN vs. NYR): DraftKings – $2,500 | FanDuel – $4,400
Minnesota made a lot of changes to their power play last year trying to find the right combination. This year, they are starting with Calen Addison as the blue-line quarterback on the top unit. He has just 18 NHL games to his name as a 22-year-old, but he posted 56 points in his last 77 games in the AHL and is revered as a puck-mover. He will get the first crack running the Minnesota PP, which makes him very appealing for his price on either site tonight, but particularly DraftKings. Facing (possibly) the best goalie in the league in Igor Shesterkin is always a daunting proposition but at Addison’s price, he needs to be considered in all tournament formats tonight. Just beware of ice-time issues, as he’s still down the depth chart at even strength for the Wild.
Those playing on FanDuel that want a defenseman playing a lot more minutes for a similar price should consider Ivan Provorov (PHI). He grades out as one of the best values by our projections for a blue liner priced under $5,000.
Goalie
Jake Oettinger (DAL at NSH): DraftKings – $7,200 | FanDuel – $7,700
Though the Stars lost in the first round last year, the only reason it went to a Game 7 was a spectacular performance from Jake Oettinger. That doesn’t do his regular season performances justice, though, as he is tied for 7th among all goalies in the NHL over the last two years in high-danger save percentage, one indicator of goalie talent. He is tied with Andrei Vasilevskiy, considered one of the top goalies on the planet. Being on the road in Nashville has him priced down across the industry tonight and he should be considered in tournaments because of that cost and his talent.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
NJD2: Hughes-Palat-Mercer
As mentioned in the section on Palat, this is a great matchup for the top-6 forwards from New Jersey. The Flyers are missing their best two-way forward and defenseman, and did not do much to address depth issues in the offseason. Two out of the three forwards on this line are expected to skate on the top power-play unit and a healthy Dougie Hamilton should help the Devils power play rebound from last year. Mercer is a third wheel, but his price is reasonable enough to include. It is unfortunate that he’s listed as a center on FanDuel but the utility slots help a lot here. Our Top Stacks tool has them as near-neutral leverage, with reasonable odds of success weighed against low ownership. Their intermediate pricing helps us get a more expensive line to pair with them or higher-priced blue liners, too.
CGY1: Huberdeau-Lindholm-Toffoli
There is always a risk when using forward combinations that haven’t skated together. This trio is an unknown quantity seeing as Jonathan Huberdeau was an offseason acquisition while Tyler Toffoli and Elias Lindholm did not skate much together last season. With that said, Huberdeau has super-elite playmaking skills, per HockeyViz, while Toffoli generally has good shot rates and offensive impact; he is inside the 95th percentile for 5-on-5 shot rate over the last three seasons. Their high price has them carrying very reasonable ownership per our Top Stacks tool, despite the sixth-highest odds to end up a top-2 stack on the slate. All three are expected to skate together on the power play, giving us perfect correlation. They at least need to be considered as a primary stack for those playing multiple lineups.
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
