Best MLB Bets Today: Baseball Prop Picks & Predictions Saturday 7/2

Saturday, July 2, is the first full day of Fourth of July weekend and gives us a full slate filled with non-stop baseball action from 12:07 p.m. ET first pitch all the way to 9:10 p.m. ET. There are a lot of games going on with some great matchups. Shane McClanahan and Kevin Gausman face off in the first game of the day in Toronto, the Yankees and the Guardians have what should be a pretty competitive day-night doubleheader. Logan Webb and Dylan Cease face off in San Francisco while Yu Darvish and the Padres will try to beat Tyler Anderson and the Dodgers in the evening. The nightcap is a Coors Field matchup between two pitchers with ERAs north of 6.00 in Dallas Keuchel (7.93 ERA) and Austin Gomber (6.55 ERA) that should be the highest-scoring game of the day.

OddsShopper can help you find all of the best MLB betting picks, giving helpful tips for making your MLB bet today. Below are three strikeout props, two home run props and one total bases prop — our best ROI MLB prop bets today.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Sonny Gray O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Sonny Gray pitches to the Baltimore Orioles. Gray has a 25.3% strikeout rate and is averaging 0.99 strikeouts per inning. On average, if he went over five innings pitched, he would hit the over on this prop. Baltimore has the eighth-highest strikeout rate to right-handed pitching at 23.5%. This is a great spot for Gray. In the past three seasons, he has averaged over one strikeout per inning, and going against a strikeout boost there’s no reason to assume he would perform worse than that. In his last six starts, he has gone under five innings just once and in his most recent start, he went seven innings. The over is the bet here.

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Sonny Gray OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)

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Logan Webb O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Logan Webb will duel Dylan Cease as he faces the White Sox in San Francisco. Webb has a 21.9% strikeout rate and is averaging 0.88 strikeouts per inning. On average, he would have to pitch between 5.2 and 6.0 innings to reach the five strikeouts needed to go over. In his last three starts he has gone seven, seven, and six innings, striking out nine, seven, and six batters. This included striking out the Royals nine times, a team that has just the 20th-highest strikeout rate to right-handed pitchers.

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Logan Webb OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Trent Grisham To Hit A Home Run | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Trent Grisham faces Tyler Anderson and the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. Grisham has not had a great season at the plate with just a .290 OBP and .140 ISO. His career OBP is .324 and his career ISO is .172. In his career, Anderson has allowed 1.36 HR/9 but this season that number is 0.92 HR/9 as he has done a better job of keeping the ball in the park. On paper, this isn’t a matchup that would tune one into betting on the home run prop. The key is the difference in the chances the Stokastic MLB Model gives of Grisham hitting a home run compared to the chances the sportsbooks are implying. The Stokastic model gives Grisham a 13% chance of hitting a home run while the odds imply a 9.09% chance to hit a home run. If this seems too risky, it is understandable to pass here. At the same time, the odds difference gives the bet an expected ROI of 43% and is the best prop bet on the board at the moment.

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Trent Grisham To Hit A Home Run (+1000)

Jose Urquidy O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Jose Urquidy and the Houston Astros take on the Los Angeles Angels at home tonight. Urquidy has a 17% strikeout rate and averages 0.74 strikeouts per inning. On average, to reach the seven strikeouts needed to go over the prop, he would have to pitch over nine innings. He has had just one start out of 14 that went over this total. At OddsShopper, the model gives him a 79% chance of staying under 6.5 strikeouts for an expected ROI of 31%

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Jose Urquidy UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-138)

Ian Happ To Hit A Home Run | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM

Ian Happ will face Josh Winckowski and the Boston Red Sox at Wrigley Field tonight. Happ has a .184 ISO against right-handed pitchers and the Stokastic MLB model gives him an 18% chance of hitting a home run. The +550 odds imply a 15.4% chance of hitting a home run, giving this bet an expected ROI of 17%

Best MLB Prop Bet Pick Today: Ian Happ To Hit A Home Run (+575)

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