Saturdays are “for the boys,” Home Depot (and maybe Bed Bath and Beyond), and most especially uninterrupted NBA action. We’re in for another seven-game slate beginning at 7 p.m. EST and with plenty of NBA player props available on OddsShopper for the taking. Working our way through the several subcategories featured, we’ll cross-reference relevant player stats, rotations and recent team trends as we navigate toward the best odds among NBA betting picks featured this Saturday. Tonight, we’re going to focus on Carmelo Anthony and Luka Doncic.
NBA Betting Picks & Player Prop Bets | March 13
Carmelo Anthony, OVER 15.5 Points (+100, BetMGM)
The Western Conference’s sixth-place Portland Trail Blazers head into Target Center to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves, currently the NBA’s worst team by record at 8-29. With consideration of blowout potential and Minnesota giving up the third-most points per game to opposing teams, we’ll look at the Points subcategory on OddsShopper to find Portland’s Carmelo Anthony given a player prop of 15.5 points at +100 odds on the over. Seeing what Carmelo has produced this season as well as of late, the even-money venture seems like a sound value for Saturday’s slate.
The 17-year veteran Anthony has found his footing since joining Portland a season ago and thriving in his role coming off the bench. Averaging 13.8 points per game with a 23.4% usage rate this season, it’s been more recently that Anthony has seen his point production on the rise along with a slight bump in usage rate. Although his overall average is down slightly from 15.4 points last season, he’s also averaging well beneath his 32 minutes per game last season (25.5 MPG this year). Anthony has secured 16.57 points per game over the past month (dating back to February 6, factoring in the All-Star break), and 18 points per game in his past six outings. Striking his season-high of 29 points (vs. Charlotte) in that span certainly swings the average toward our narrative, yet it’s also the quality of opponent that garners interest toward the even-money odds on Anthony. His propensity to shoot the three this season bodes well to the chances here, averaging five attempts from long range per game over the past month and 4.6 attempts per game this season (up from 3.9 3PA per game in 2019-20).
Taking on a beleaguered T-Wolves roster that remains the NBA’s only team without double-digits in the win column, the Timberwolves have surrendered 116.7 points per game to opponents this season with 22.3 being given up to opposing power forwards. With Anthony rotating over to the four while Robert Covington moves over to absorb center minutes with Enes Kanter on the bench, Anthony averages 22.95 points per 36 minutes (or .64 points per minute). In the case of a blowout he should consume some of the additional minutes as well, as Anthony makes for an intriguing investment this Saturday across NBA betting picks.
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Luka Doncic, OVER 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-105, BetMGM)
In a game out West that should certainly be a fun one to watch, the resurgent Dallas Mavericks head into altitude to face the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena. With Mavericks star multi-talent guard Luka Doncic playing out of his mind, the duel between he and Denver MVP candidate Nikola Jokic provides some intrigue to the said player props involved. Transitioning to the 3-Pointers subcategory on OddsShopper, we discover Doncic with a player prop of 2.5 3-pointers with -105 on the over. Looking at what Doncic has done from long-range recently, risking wager for reward just beneath even-money odds sheds light on some potentially over-looked value.
While he’s averaging 28.4 points and 35.3 minutes per game this season, Doncic’s 3-point attempts are down from last season’s 8.9 per game to 7.5 attempts this season, yet his percentage made has considerably improved. Making 35.1% of his shots from 3-point territory, Doncic equips 36% of his shot selection from this range while comprising 27.8% of his total points made from three. Averaging 2.6 3-pointers made per game all season, Doncic has seen his long-range production on the uptick in recent weeks, averaging four 3-pointers made per game for just over the past month and increasing his composition of total points from 3-point land to 37.6% over his past 11 games, attempting 8.4 threes per game in that recent frame.
As the Denver Nuggets hover right around the middle of the league allowing 12.7 3s-per-game to opposing teams, they’re surrendering 2.9 3s per game to opposing point guards (also with most opposing point guards not being named Luka Doncic). Considering Luka currently retains the highest usage rate among active players this season at 34.5%, along with his recent boom in shot selection from beyond the arc, getting this NBA player prop at just -105 odds is an excellent value among Saturday’s odds.
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