Happy NBA Saturday to the Awesemo community! Following Friday’s onslaught of 11 games, our just desserts for Saturday includes a nine-game array of a later variety with action tipping at 8 p.m. EST. With a number of teams being joined by their newly minted members since Thursday’s trade deadline, the player props at OddsShopper draw added intrigue to see how some of the new pieces will fit where they’ve landed. As we seek to identify the best NBA odds this Saturday, we’ll cross-reference relevant player stats, rotations, and team trends to nail down our betting picks for this weekend’s first main slate. Tonight, the focus is on Danny Green and Ricky Rubio.
NBA Betting Picks & Player Prop Bets | March 27
Danny Green OVER 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+135)
The Philadelphia 76ers are on a roll while their star center Joel Embiid has sat out for two weeks (and counting) with a bone bruise, going 9-1 over their last 10 games (nine of those without Embiid). Having just dispatched of one Los Angeles team on Thursday, the Sixers head back into Staples Center to take on a less beleaguered Clippers unit than the Lakers they handled just two nights ago, stemming on behalf of a Danny Green revenge game (28 points, 8-12 3PM). Speaking of his 3-point prowess, Green has a player prop of 2.5 3-pointers made at friendly +135 odds. Despite the aggressively challenging matchup with the Clippers defense, Green’s season from 3-point range lends plenty of value to Saturday’s ticket of NBA betting picks.
Averaging 28.7 minutes and 9.6 points per game with Philly, Green has been having a very productive season from beyond the arc, as his 114 total 3s made are only six shy of his entire total from last regular season with the Lakers. Shooting 40.1% from 3-point range this year the makeup of Green’s overall shot selection sees a vast majority derived from long range, as he’s comprised 77.6% of all shot attempts from 3-point territory. Also as aid to the over is Green’s scoring average and 3-point attempt average with Embiid missing from action, as Green has averaged 13.3 points and 8.16 3-point attempts per 36 minutes, with 3.36 three-pointers made given those circumstances. In their recent 10-game stint of success without Embiid, Green has averaged 3.5 3-pointers made and shooting 46.1% from 3-point range.
Attempting as many as 21 3-pointers in a game this season while making as many as nine (both vs. Miami), Green has proven the ceiling is rather vaulted for his 3-point potential in any one performance. Facing off with a stifling Clippers defense provides a daunting task for most, with opponents’ 3-pointers as no exclusion, as Los Angeles has allowed the fifth-fewest 3s per game this season with 11.2 3-pointers allowed per game to opposing teams. Allowing just 2.2 3-pointers per game to opposing small forwards, Green’s uphill battle posed by the Clippers this evening is reflected in the +135 odds inscribed. Yet, without Embiid and likely fighting every step of the way to stay in this game, the 3-point shot production by Green provides plenty of reason to consider the plus-money odds for inclusion among your Saturday betting picks.
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Ricky Rubio OVER 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105)
Veteran guard Ricky Rubio has been having a better latter part of the season compared to his time coming off the Minnesota bench intermittently to start the year, averaging more points and assists (while shedding no rebounds) since the All-Star break. In a rematch against the lowly Rockets following Friday’s 107-101 victory for the Wolves, Rubio is looking to redeem himself from an 0-for-7 shooting night in the victory just a night ago. Transitioning to the PTS+REB+AST section on OddsShopper, Rubio garners a player prop of 20.5 on the combined stat trio, with a soft -105 on the over. Considering Rubio’s averages by each metric, particularly of late, snagging these odds hovering around even-money makes for fantastic value among NBA betting picks for Saturday.
While he’s averaged 8.5 points, 6.8 assists and 3.1 rebounds in 26.4 minutes per game for the season, Rubio has seen a gradual uptick since February in both scoring and assists. Averaging 10.3 points per game since the All-Star Break and 11.3 points per game through the month of March, Rubio has also seen his playing time hike significantly since becoming part of the Minnesota starting lineup each of the past 21 games and averaging 30.2 minutes per game since the break. Rubio’s already bolstered assist rate of 32.8% in February jumped to 38.8% in March and 35.4% for the season while spiking his season assist average with 8.4 assists per game since the break. While his rebounding has remained ancillary at best with 3.1 boards per game and a 5.6% rebound rate, Rubio did see as many as seven rebounds in one game this season (against a top-rebounding team in New Orleans). With Malik Beasley rejoining the starting lineup for the first time since February 24th, Rubio gains production in all three categories as well, averaging 11.3 points, 9.43 assists and 3.83 rebounds per 36 minutes alongside Beasley.
Squaring off with a very susceptible Rockets team given each of the respective categories, Houston has given up 113.4 points (ranked 22nd NBA), 24.2 assists (13th NBA), and 48.5 rebounds per game to opposing teams (last in NBA). When it comes to point guards specifically, the Rockets allow 23.5 points, 6.9 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game to the position this season, and despite his poor performance last night, Rubio has the ability to salvage redemption on the stat sheet against this disheveled Rockets roster. With just -105 juice as a premium, the moderate 21 combined total of all three stat categories necessary to cash makes for worthwhile value to consider with Saturday’s NBA betting picks.
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