Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free Expert Baseball Picks & Predictions 4/21

It is Thursday, April 21, and there is a 10-game MLB slate that includes seven during the day and just three games tonight. This article will be primarily focused on the night games but will include a few day games picks at the end. Yesterday’s edition hit on Aaron Judge over 1.5 bases (+125), MacKenzie Gore over 4.5 strikeouts (-155) and Daulton Varsho over 0.5 home runs (+480). It missed just one bet: Luis Severino Over 5.5 strikeouts. Now we return for more of the best MLB prop bets today.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Each day this article will seek out the best expert MLB prop bets today based on the potentially most profitable according to xROI, and OddsShopper can help identify the best bets by making it easy to filter, sort, and bet. If a pick below has changed, you can always find another great MLB bet by filtering and sorting to maximize chances at profit.

Pablo Lopez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Tonight Pablo Lopez takes the mound as the Miami Marlins take on the St. Louis Cardinals. Lopez is 1-0 with a 0.87 ERA, 3.67 xFIP, a 20% strikeout rate and 0.77 strikeouts per inning this year. He has a career xFIP of 3.89, a career strikeout rate of 22.8 and 0.95 strikeouts per inning. The Cardinals have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball (18%), so they do not offer a strikeout boost for starting pitchers.

In Lopez’s first start, he threw 79 pitches and went five innings. He threw 87 pitches but went just 5 1/3 innings in his second start. In order for Lopez to strike out six batters against an average MLB team, he would need to pitch 6 1/3 innings. Against a team with the lowest strikeout rate in baseball, he might need to pitch seven innings, and that seems unlikely tonight.

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Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Bases (+110)

Bryan Reynolds and the Pirates take on Mark Leiter Jr. and the Chicago Cubs. Reynolds is batting .227 with a .364 slugging and a .290 wOBA. Needless to say, he has had a slow start to his season. Over the course of his career, he has hit .288 with a .486 slugging and a .361 wOBA. Reynolds also has had a .220 ISO against right-handed pitching the last two seasons. This is the right matchup for Reynolds to get back on track.

Leiter has a career 4.41 xFIP, allows 1.99 HR/9 and a hard-hit rate of 34.8%. Additionally, the game will be at a nice temperature of 64 degrees with the wind blowing out. Reynolds is a good batter and Leiter is a bad pitcher, this is a good spot to get going for the season. Based on his .220 ISO against right-handed pitching, if Reynolds gets five at-bats in this game (which he could batting second), he will likely get an extra base.

Ian Happ Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400)

On the other side of the Cubs – Pirates game, Bryse Wilson is on the mound for Pittsburgh, and he has 1.86 HR/9 in the last two seasons. Happ is a switch hitter who will be batting left-handed against Wilson. Happ is projected to hit clean up, and he has a .230 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. In general, due to the wind blowing out, Cubs hitters are a good team to target with MLB prop bets today.

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