Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free Expert Baseball Picks & Predictions 4/12

Tuesday, April 12 offers a full 14-game slate. Each day this article will seek out the best expert MLB prop bets today based on the potentially most profitable according to xROI, and OddsShopper can help identify the best bets by making it easy to filter, sort and bet. If a pick below has changed, you can always find another great MLB bet by filtering and sorting to maximize chances at profit. (NOTE: MLB Player Props are coming soon to OddsShopper).

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Zack Wheeler Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)

Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies continue their series against the New York Mets a day after Philadelphia put up five runs in the eighth inning to take the lead and eventually win the game. Last season Wheeler had a 2.78 ERA, a 2.84 xFIP and a career-high strikeout rate (29.1%). However, Wheeler is expected to be on a pitch count of 70 to 75, and based on his rates from last year, he would have to pitch at least 4.1 innings to hit the over. This is assuming his career-high strikeout rate from last year and also assuming he won’t be rusty in this start. Last year he had just one start where he threw between 70 and 75 pitches, and it was 73 pitches in three innings. In 2020 he had no starts with fewer than 83 pitches thrown.

Lastly, in the early part of this season, the Mets are not striking out. They are No. 21 with a 21.8% strikeout rate, so though Wheeler is coming off a career-high strikeout rate, he has some shoulder soreness from the spring and is facing a team that does not strike out more than average.

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Shane Bieber Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-154)

Shane Bieber takes the mound for Cleveland as they open up a series against the Cincinnati Reds today. Bieber only pitched 4 2/3 innings in his last start, but he struck out 22.2% of batters, which is less than his career mark of 30.9%. Kansas City only struck out during their opening series 14.9% of the time, which was No. 28 in the league.

In this very small sample size of this season, Cincinnati has struck out 26.5% of the time. If Bieber can make it five innings, he should be able to hit the over if he can strike out close to his career mark. In the last start he threw 73 pitches, and one has to figure that even though they likely won’t let him throw 100 pitches, he will throw 80 to 85 pitches if he does well.

Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Bases (+100)

Byron Buxton has started the season red hot with three home runs in four games. He had zero hits on Opening Day, and then he hit one home run in the second game, two home runs in the third game and two doubles yesterday. Today he faces Andrew Heaney, who went 8-9 with a 5.83 ERA, 4.12 xFIP and allowed 2.01 HR/9. While Heaney’s underlying metrics show he could be more of a 4.00 ERA pitcher, that doesn’t mean he is going to go out there and shut everyone down.

Buxton for his career has a .201 ISO against lefties, but in 2019 it was .238, in 2020 .250 and in 2021 .300. If he faces Heaney twice, which he is likely to, based on his ISO he will have two bases on average.

Adolis Garcia Over 0.5 Home Runs (+255)

Adolis Garcia and the Texas Rangers are slated to face Chad Kuhl and the Colorado Rockies tonight. Kuhl went 5-7 with a 4.82 ERA and 5.31 xFIP last season. He allowed 1.46 HR/9 and had a strikeout-walk rate of just 9.5%. Kuhl also has a hard-hit percentage for his career of 37.7%.

Garcia has power, hitting 31 home runs last season and posting a .212 ISO. This season he already is getting it going with one home run in four games. Home run predictions are mainly for fun; overall they are difficult to predict, so bet less money that typical for other props. That said, Garcia has one of the better chances of hitting a home run tonight going against a pitcher that tends to allow them. His teammate Corey Seager is another one in a good spot.

More HR Prop Bets Today

Mitch Haniger Over 0.5 (+350)
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 (+320)

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