When looking at the thin markets for UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor III, using Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool to find the best lines is crucial. Finding the best odds and UFC fight lines, let’s get into the MMA betting picks and start cashing on some of these tickets. to maximizing profits. With the card only hours away, let’s get into the UFC prop bets and start cashing on some of these big-hitting tickets.
UFC Betting Picks: Poirier vs. McGregor III
Dustin Poirier +800 by Submission (BetMGM)
The marquee bout of UFC 264, Dustin Poirier faces Conor McGregor in the third fight of the trilogy. While most sportsbooks opened with both fighters at -110 odds, the fight has quickly moved to Poirier -130. Poirier won their most recent bout by knockout in the second round and defeated Dan Hooker last year. In fact, Poirier’s only loss since 2017 came against Khabib Nurmagomedov. McGregor is 1-2 in his most recent fights and also faced Nurmagomedov in that span. Both fighters have a win via knockout in this series. They have stayed standing up for most of their two fights, but the third fight may feature additional wrinkles. In particular, Poirier has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, which he has not implemented to this point. Poirier has landed the only takedown of McGregor so far, but he averages 1.47 takedowns per bout. McGregor defends takedowns well at 67% and often scrambles back to his feet when fights hit the mat. However, McGregor has four losses via submission. While Poirier has not implemented his grappling yet, he very much has a strong ground game. At +800, hitting Poirier to win by submission offers immense payout potential.
Brad Tavares +145 by Decision (BetMGM)
Brad Tavares faces Omari Akhmedov as a -165 favorite in the men’s middleweight division. Tavares is 18-6 in his career but 1-2 in his last three fights. He most recently defeated Antonio Carlos Junior but previously dropped fights to Israel Adesanya and Edmen Shahbazyan. Meanwhile, Akhmedov enters this fight at 21-5-1, submitting Tom Breese in his most recent fight. In this fight Tavares has a number of advantages. On the feet he is the more well-rounded striker, landing 3.04 significant strikes per minute to Akhmedov’s 2.95. Plus, Akhmedov throws with just 35% accuracy. In general Akhmedov strikes to clinch to then secure the takedown. Tavares has 79% takedown defense, potentially nullifying Akhmedov’s best path to victory. In their recent bouts both fighters have allowed matches to reach decisions. Prior to the Breese fight, Akhmedov had seven straight fights reach decisions. Tavares is tied for most decision wins in UFC middleweight history. With the overall fight favoring Tavares, taking him +140 by decision secures superior odds.
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Gilbert Burns +500 by Submission (William Hill)
In UFC 264’s co-main event Gilbert Burns faces off against Stephen Thompson in the men’s welterweight division. Burns most recently lost in a title bout against Kamaru Usman after previously winning six fights in a row. Meanwhile, Thompson has rattled off two straight wins against Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal. While Thompson is -155 in the betting markets, this fight remains a clash of styles. Thompson is one of the most lethal kickboxers and karate fighters in the UFC, landing 4.24 significant strikes per minute. On the other hand, Burns has a second-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Burns has improved as a striker and even rattled Usman early in his title bout. However, Thompson’s diverse striking and evasiveness give him the edge on the feet. Even with his striking prowess, Thompson still has four losses at the UFC level. Burns lands 3.22 significant strikes per minute and averages 2.08 takedowns per bout. Thompson has solid 78% takedown defense, but he also has not faced a takedown attempt in four straight fights. Thompson has not been submitted in his 21-fight career, but Burns has rare jiu-jitsu skills. With such a strong advantage on the mat, Burns by submission at +500 is wager worth making.
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