The final play-in game matches the UCLA Bruins against the Michigan State Spartans. The two historic programs find themselves in an awkward position, like many of their counterparts, not holding onto one of the top seeds. The winner of the UCLA vs. Michigan State game will advance to the main portion of the East Region bracket. This is shaping up to be one of the wildest years of March Madness yet. Here are the key trends and my predictions to help you find an edge on the NCAA Tournament betting picks markets.
March Madness Betting Picks | UCLA vs. Michigan State
UCLA vs. Michigan State Game Info
UCLA Bruins (17-9) vs. Michigan State Spartans (15-12)
Date: Thursday, Mar. 18, 2021
Start Time: 9:57 p.m. EST
Venue: Mackey Arena – West Lafayette, Ind.
Bracket: East Region
Coverage: TBS
Neither school comes into the NCAA Tournament play-in at their best. UCLA has lost four straight games, while Michigan has alternated wins and losses over the last five games. In order to find a more definitive winner, we’ll need to dive deeper into the matchup:
UCLA vs. Michigan State Prediction: UCLA +2
The two teams have met twice since 2018, with Michigan State winning each time. However, I’m not so sure that will continue on Thursday night.
Michigan State was listed as the favorite, and that’s probably a title they would prefer their opponent had instead. Michigan State has a dreadful 3-11 record against the spread as a favorite this season, so there’s plenty of reason to be cautious there. In addition, UCLA has a 4-2 record against the spread in non-conference games, while Michigan State is 2-4 against the spread in the same situation. Apparently extra rest hasn’t helped this team either. When Michigan State had at least four days of rest this season, they were 0-6 against the spread. On any type of extended rest, Michigan State was 6-16 against the spread.
UCLA vs. Michigan State Prediction: Under 135.5 Points
Since 2003, the total has gone u3nder in five of six games between the schools. The two most recent matchups (2018, 2019) also went under the total. All three of UCLA’s neutral-court games have gone over the total this season.
If this total makes it over the 135.5-point total, over bettors will probably thank UCLA more for their work. Michigan State games have only gone over the total in 10 of 27 chances (37%) this season, and that includes each of its last six falling below the total. Despite UCLA’s stigma of playing in high-scoring games on neutral courts, I’ll take the under here because of Michigan State in this NCAA Tournament matchup.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”ncaab” date=”03/18/2021″ team=”bruins”]
UCLA vs. Michigan State Spread Pick
If you agree with me on UCLA, our best bet to get at +2 at -109 is on both DraftKings and SugarHouse Sportsbook. If Michigan State is who you’re rolling with, use FanDuel, PointsBet or William Hill in order to get the -2 at the standard -11o juice. Make sure to look at OddsShopper before placing your bet to confirm that you’re still getting the best current deal.
UCLA vs. Michigan State Odds Shopping
If you agree with me on the total going under 135.5 points, we can grab the best juice (-110) at DraftKings, SugarHouse or William Hill. If you believe we’ll see a high-scoring affair that goes above 135.5 points, you’ll catch a nice break on PointsBet getting -105 odds.
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Matt’s Prediction: UCLA +2.5
Interestingly, this line continues to move in Michigan State’s direction despite being the less efficient team. UCLA ranks 43rd in offensive efficiency and 192nd in defensive efficiency, while Michigan State ranks 196th and 200th, respectively. UCLA can also exploit a Michigan State team that often struggles in the paint. UCLA has five starters standing at least 6-6. Conversely, Michigan’s post game flows through a 6-foot-6 Aaron Henry and a 6-foot-9 Joey Hauser. Hauser continues to play limited minutes after a mid-season benching, giving UCLA additional advantages. Even looking at the Bruins moneyline could make some sense here.
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