There is only a four-game main slate for our baseball betting picks tonight. According to the Awesemo expert MLB player prop tool, there are plenty of good Las Vegas betting odds and lines to target on tonight’s slate. Here are three of the best MLB picks and best prop bets today, Thursday, Aug. 19.
Expert MLB Picks, Player Prop Predictions & Vegas Odds
Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds – Under 8.5 Runs (-115, FanDuel)
Typically, Great American Ballpark is not a place where many low-scoring games go down. However, there is reason to believe that tonight will be different. Aside from a rough outing 10 days ago, Reds right-hander Luis Castillo has been solid of late. In his last 12 outings Castillo has 10 quality starts. The Marlins struggle against right-handed pitching, striking out at the sixth-highest rate (25.8%) in MLB.
Marlins right-hander Zach Thompson has not had much luck in the wins department this season. Despite his 2.91 ERA and 1.12 WHIP numbers, he only carries a 2-5 record into this matchup. The good news for under bettors is that eight of Thompson’s 11 starts have finished with a game total under 8.5 runs. According to the Awesemo Sports Betting Model, the total is expected to finish a half run below the total, and the under has the second-highest expected return on investment.
Jameson Taillon – Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-113, SugarHouse, William Hill)
The Twins have been solid against right-handed pitching, with the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in the American League. In fact, six of the last eight starting pitchers to face Minnesota have failed to exceed this barometer of 5.5 strikeouts. Taillon has started 23 games this season and has only had six strikeouts in seven of those outings.
Taillon is not necessarily blowing hitters away, with five or fewer strikeouts in six of his last seven starts. The Yankees are expected to put a ton of crooked numbers on the board tonight. If that is the case, Taillon will not need to have his best stuff. Rather, he can throw a lot more fastballs than usual and keep the game moving.
Avisail Garcia – Over 1.5 Hits (+190, BetMGM)
This is the one bet above all to focus on tonight, especially with the huge plus odds. Garcia is coming off a multi-homer game on Wednesday, and that was his third multi-hit game over the last four. It is also worth noting that only six hitters in all of MLB have a higher OPS against left-handed pitching than Garcia (1.035). There is also a little bit of history here between him and Jon Lester, as Garcia is 6-for-20 lifetime against him.
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