The NBA’s second season tips off tonight with the first two games of the Eastern Conference NBA play-in Tournament. More games mean more opportunities for us to nail some NBA betting picks. If wagering on the Hornets vs. Pacers or Wizards vs. Celtics game lines isn’t for you, perhaps some NBA player props will do the trick. Considering the run we went on in this column to close out the regular season, optimism is in the air as we embark on the first play-in games. Read on for the featured NBA prediction and picks for Tuesday’s games, including props for LaMelo Ball and Marcus Smart.
NBA Betting Prediction: NBA Player Props | May 18
LaMelo Ball Over 16.5 Points
To preface this NBA prediction, it’s important to acknowledge that the Hornets wouldn’t even be in the NBA play-in tournament if not for Ball. Even though he missed significant time with a broken wrist, he is easily the best player on Charlotte’s roster when healthy. Minutes have been no issue for Ball since he made his return at the beginning of May. Although rust was evident at times, he enters tonight’s game having exceeded the NBA betting line of 16.5 points in five of the last eight games. Throw out one of those in which he only played 20 minutes, and Ball is clearly having no issues scoring the ball.
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Tonight’s NBA player props total is slightly over Ball’s season scoring average of 15.7 points per game. That being said, the game’s best players are counted on to show up in big moments. With this being an elimination game, the Hornets will no doubt be relying on the face of their franchise, even if he is still just a rookie. On top of his recent form and the surrounding narrative, the matchup is ideal tonight as well. The Pacers ranked 25th in the NBA in scoring defense this season, surrendering over 115 points per game. Add in the juice being shaded slightly to the under, and there’s a handsome potential return to be had here as well.
Daniel Gafford Under 5.5 Rebounds
Is Gafford the best center in the Wizards’ discombobulated position rotation? By far. Can bettors count on Scott Brooks to treat him as such in a playoff atmosphere tonight? Probably not. The production that Gafford has provided Washington off the bench since coming over at the trade deadline is undeniable. Yet Brooks has continued to resort to playing either Alex Len or Robin Lopez the majority of minutes seemingly every night. Until proven otherwise, tonight’s NBA betting line of 5.5 total rebounds for Gafford is simply too high.
The Awesemo NBA Player Props Tool is on board with the NBA prediction for Gafford to come in under this rebounding total. Gafford hasn’t exceeded five total boards in any game since an obscure 12-point, 10-rebound double-double in just 14 minutes of action on May 5. Given the heightened stakes that come with postseason basketball, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Brooks have an even shorter leash with Gafford tonight than he did during the regular season. In addition, the Celtics were a top-12 rebounding team this season. Gafford will likely be banging with Tristan Thompson a lot on the inside. Of course, Thompson made his name hustling on the glass in the playoffs for the Cavaliers last decade. Take the under here and don’t think twice about it.
Marcus Smart Over 4.5 Assists
The NBA betting market is all over the map when it comes to assist props concerning the Celtics backcourt. After digging through all available options, the one that stands out is to take Smart over 4.5 total dimes at -149 odds. While the over on 3.5 for Evan Fournier is available at +130, his late-season stats were undoubtedly buoyed by the fact that both Smart and Kemba Walker sat out down the stretch. It’s hard to envision his recent pace continuing in tonight’s NBA play-in game.
Smart averaged 5.7 assists per game on the season to lead the Celtics’ backcourt trio. His improvement as a passer meshes perfectly with what Boston will need to do offensively this postseason. With Jaylen Brown done for the year, Walker and Fournier will both need to step up as primary scorers behind Jayson Tatum. The Celtics will welcome buckets from Smart too, but it’s not his forte. It is quite conceivable for Smart to act as a primary set-up man given the shorthanded nature of the lineup. The juice here is somewhat hefty, but the NBA player props line is over an assist below his season average. Lay it and reap the win.
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