We enter Tuesday’s NBA slate already one game short of the seven originally scheduled, with Boston and Chicago seeing their match postponed due to COVID-19 exposure protocol. Upon first glance at OddsShopper, all signs from bookmakers indicate some closely contested matchups, as there’s no game with a point spread in double digits and three games with point spreads of 3 points or fewer. While we sift through NBA odds and player props to narrow down our NBA betting picks, we’ll set out to identify any suspected weaknesses in the betting market with consideration to player stats and on-court team trends from this season and more recently prior.
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NBA Betting Picks: Tuesday NBA Odds & Best Player Props | Jan. 12
NBA Pick: C Nikola Jokic, OVER 7.5 Assists (-141, PointsBet)
For most any other center, getting -141 odds on an eight-assist player prop would seem like a ripoff. But when it comes to anomalies at the position, Nuggets center Nikola Jokic certainly checks the boxes for the application, and getting moderate house juice on eight assists is some intriguing value to be had on Tuesday.
Playing a career-high 35.1 minutes per game over the first 10 games, Jokic is logging three more minutes per game than last season and seeing a major boost in the assist column as well. Currently averaging a triple-double, Jokic is slinging 10.4 assists per game with a 43.7% assist rate, up from his seven assists per game and 35% assist rate in 2020. While it would be fair to presume that the current production isn’t sustainable, the playing style and impeccable floor vision of Jokic combined with the statistical ceiling he’s proven capable of that make the odds encouraging despite the fact that we are paying a premium.
Speaking of ceilings, when it comes to Jokic and assisting his fellow teammates, the possibilities are nearly endless. Just this season in all of 10 games for Denver, Jokic has once managed an insane 18 assists (and in regulation mind you) and seven of those games with assists in double digits. Although Brooklyn is allowing three assists per game to opposing centers, I don’t believe there’s much worth paying mind to in regards to Jokic and that minor statistic.
This line opened at +100 even-money odds on over 8.5 assists, having since migrated downward to a softer 7.5 assists at a price hike, which I was fully prepared to endorse as well until the line movement came into play early. I still believe with how Jokic is playing these days, including the minute and assist rate increase, that paying the added juice for eight assists is worth the wager.
NBA Pick: G Stephen Curry, OVER 4.5 Three-Pointers Made (+115, PointsBet)
Don’t look now, but the Golden State Warriors are starting to remind us a bit of their old selves, even if that means another season without half of the Splash Brothers comprisal, Klay Thompson. That remarkably includes the return to form by the tandem’s other half in Stephen Curry, especially with what he’s known best for: Hitting the long ball. Turning the page at OddsShopper to the 3-point player prop subcategory, we find Curry bestowed a rather friendly +115 to net five or more 3-pointers against the Pacers on Tuesday night, which has my immediate attention given Curry’s resurgence behind the arc.
Matching his 3-point numbers verbatim of the 2017-18 season, Curry is hitting from 3-point range at the rate of 4.2 deep balls per game while comprising 31% of the Warriors’ 3-pointers made on average. Curry is tied with Paul George for second in the league overall in total 3-pointers made with 42 in 10 games played, hitting as many as nine deep balls in one outing. Five of the 10 games played for Curry have included five or more 3-pointers made, and his chances against this Pacers team seem inviting when mulling the +115 per PointsBet.
Provided the opponent’s season track record, Curry couldn’t draw a much better matchup by the numbers when gauging Indiana against the specific category. Allowing the sixth-most 3-pointers made per game averaging 11.8, along with the league’s second-highest 3-point rate allowed to opponents at 40.4%, it’s safe to assume Curry will be able to crack this over just above his season average with ease. Considering his current NBA rank of 12th overall in usage at 31% this season, Curry’s crack at five 3-pointers at +115 makes for some of the best NBA betting odds on this Tuesday’s shorter slate.
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