Kicking off Wild Card Weekend, the NFL features three football games with staggered start times. While each team has already played 16 times, edges are plentiful in the NFL betting markets. Let’s get into some NFL betting picks and odds based on the OddShopper tool and some best bets for the Saturday Slate on Wild Card Weekend.
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NFL Betting Picks: Wild Card Weekend | Saturday Slate
NFL Picks: Tampa Bay -7.5 (BetMGM)
Highlighting the importance of the OddShopper tool, Tampa Bay’s betting line varies depending on the sportsbook. With BetMGM offering 7.5-points, Tampa Bay looks like a sharp bet on the Saturday slate. Tampa Bay enters the playoffs on a four-game winning streak. In impressive fashion, the Buccaneers also scored at least 31 points in each of their last three games. On the other side, the Washington Football team limped into the post-season with a 7-9 record and 20-14 victory over a Philadelphia Eagles team trying to actively throw the game.
As for matchups, Tampa Bay faces a fierce Washington defense that only allows 5.8 yards per pass attempt and 4.2 yards per rush attempt. Both marks rank top ten in the NFL. Washington wins with their fierce pass rush, often generating enough pressure to force opposing offenses into turnovers. However, Tampa Bay matches up well against this style of team because of Tom Brady‘s quick time to throw. From the time Brady receives the snap, he ranks 32nd in time to throw in the NFL. With receivers like Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski stressing defenses at multiple levels, Brady often doesn’t even feel the pass rush before the ball is out of his hands.
On the other side, Alex Smith is a remarkable story but a mediocre passer at this stage of his career. Both his completion percentage (66.7%) and his yards per attempt (6.3) rank well below average. Smith must also deal with his top playmakers Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin nursing injuries. Making matters worse, Tampa Bay’s defense expects to return starting corner Carlton Davis to a defense that already ranked seventh in yards per pass attempt allowed to opposing signal-callers (6.4).
With advantages settling in on both sides of the ball, Tampa Bay is a safe bet on Saturday for Wild Card Weekend.
NFL Picks: D.K. Metcalf Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
Easily one of the softest markets at sportsbooks, player props provide a variety of edges on a given slate. When cross-referenced with the Awesemo projected stats, Metcalf stands out as a particular value in the player prop market on Saturday for Wild Card Weekend. Listed at 60.5 yards at DraftKings, the Awesemo player projections slate Metcalf for 80.8 yards receiving. In a must-win contest, expect Metcalf to receiver a sizeable workload.
Metcalf’s low receiving prop stems from a tough matchup against the Rams’ secondary. As a unit, the Rams allowed a league-best 5.6 yards per pass attempt in their coverage. In fact, in two previous matchups against Metcalf this season, the Rams held the second-year pro to 28 and 59 yards receiving on four and eight targets. Despite the tough matchup, betting on positive regression here makes sense. On the year, Metcalf finished with a 24% target share and at least eight targets in five out of his last six games.
Between his immense target share and strong projection, betting on Metcalf to eclipse 60.5 yards receiving on Wild Card weekend looks like a sharp bet.
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