Next on the fall schedule is the Mayakoba Golf Classic at El Camaleon Golf Club (par 71, 7,017 yards, paspalum greens) in Playa Del Carmen, Mexico. This event has taken on many different titles, but El Camaleon has been the only host of this tournament since it was added to the PGA schedule back in 2007. This track is home to the rare paspalum greens, and some other notable venues that sport this type of putting surfaces are the Grand Reserve Country Club for the Puerto Rico Open, Corales Golf Club for the Corales Championship, TPC Kuala Lumpur for the CIMB Classic and the Ocean Course of Kiawah Island for the 2021 PGA Championship. This week’s field consists of 134 players, and there will be a normal top 65 and ties making the cut after the first 36 holes. Every week I use Alex Baker’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings to identify mispriced options in both the PGA DFS and golf betting market. Below are three expert PGA picks this week and Vegas betting odds for the Mayakoba Golf Classic.
Expert PGA Picks This Week: Mayakoba Golf Classic
Much like the standard rankings in golf, Awesemo has produced the Unofficial World Golf Rankings. We can use these in PGA DFS lineups or to find an edge on our golf betting picks. At Awesemo, the metric is the number of strokes above or below how an average field in a PGA tournament performed. How to weigh these data points is essential, as people love to talk about short form versus long form. Only PGA tournaments are considered right now, and golfers need a minimum of 20 rounds played.
Tony Finau (+2800, Caesars Sportsbook)
Finau is coming off an excellent showing as a ball striker, gaining 5.6 strokes tee to green at the CJ Cup. However, he lost 5.9 strokes on the greens, which ranked fourth worst for the tournament, limiting him to a 45th-place finish. Prior to this, Finau had gained strokes with his flat stick in three of his previous five starts, and the transition to paspalum should help him get back on track. Finau’s first career PGA win came on paspalum at the 2016 Puerto Rico Open, and he has carded two top-10s at El Camaleon in five trips. Finau also ranks second in this field in total strokes gained over his last 50 rounds on par 71s. At this price, Finau needs to be included on betting cards this week.
Aaron Wise (+3500, Caesars Sportsbook)
Wise had incredible closing round at this event last year, firing off an 8-under 63. This was tied for the lowest score on the course for the final round, and he finished the tournament as the runner-up to winner Viktor Hovland by one stroke. This was Wise’s second top-10 finish at El Camaleon over the last three years, and now he returns to Mexico in some of the best form of his career.
Wise has been a ball-striking machine as of late, producing over five strokes from tee to green in four of his last five starts. His last two finishes have both been top-10s, and over Wise’s past 24 rounds, he ranks fifth in strokes gained tee to green and first in birdie-or-better percentage. Wise ranks 34th in Awesemo’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings and is worth backing at this number.
Henrik Stenson (+350 for a top-20, BetMGM)
After a miserable campaign last season, Stenson’s game has found some life this fall. Competing overseas on the European Tour, he has made four straight cuts, with a pair of top-fives coming during this run. Over this four-event stretch, Stenson shot even par or better in 13 of 16 rounds and was also lights out with his irons, sticking 74% of greens in regulation.
He has never teed it up at El Camaleon before, but this short, second-shot course sets up perfectly for his game. The past four champions at this venue have been top 10 in greens found during their wins, and Stenson has never missed a cut on paspalum greens, most notably with a third-place finish at the 2012 Puerto Rico Open.
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