Identifying edges in the NBA betting market can be tough, which is why OddsShopper by Awesemo.com is here to help. This article focuses on my favorite NBA prop bets and NBA betting picks for Friday’s nightcap game between the Trail Blazers and Warriors, and which sportsbook offers the best odds for them.
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The Prop Report: Top NBA Prop Bets | Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | New Year’s Day
NBA Prop Bet: Steph Curry OVER 27.5 Points
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With news of Klay Thompson’s season-ending achilles injury before the start of the year, many expected it to be the Stephen Curry Show from day one. So far, that show is off to a late start. The two-time NBA MVP has failed to live up to the billing, shooting just 41.3% from the field and 31.8% from three. He’s still getting some solid volume-based scoring in, however, putting up 26.5 points per game.
Here’s the big thing for me: Steph is finally playing at home. While it’s a different atmosphere, the Warriors started off their season with four-consecutive road games. And while we have no sample to speak of for Curry at the new Chase Center in San Francisco (they played their home games at the Oracle in Oakland his entire career), not being in a new shooting environment should do the flamethrower good. In fact, let’s take a look at his home/road shooting percentage splits for his career per Basketball-Reference:
As you can see, Curry checks-in as a 48.3% shooter at home (44.2% from three) compared to 46.9% on the road (42.6% from three). These are both significantly higher rates than he’s currently at, possibly because defenses have fewer options to hone in on with the absences of Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant, whom he ran alongside of for a large portion of his career.
Against a Trail Blazers team giving surrendering the seventh-most points per game in the association (120.3) in a game that’s seen its total inflate 6.5 points from opening to 236.5, expect points and possessions to be rampant. That’s why I want to invest in the most secure usage player on the floor in Curry, who I expect to start shooting closer to his career numbers as the season goes on. Paying a little extra juice at -129 is just fine by me here; lock in the over on 27.5 points for one unit.
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