Welcome to a new NBA season! This is our primary in-depth NBA article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for any format.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and myself from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.
Update #1: Dario Saric is out for the Suns. This isn’t big news, other than it could open up a few more minutes for Ayton with his primary back-up not available.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | New Year’s Day
Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons (+9): 213
Boston Celtics
The Celtics are fresh off a blowout win over the Grizzlies and they face another inferior opponent tonight in the Pistons. Tristan Thompson is expected back into the lineup, which is a downgrade from last game for Daniel Theis, Robert Williams and Jeff Teague.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are the two main scorers here and they’re both off to strong starts for Boston this season. Brown leads the team with a 30.8 percent usage percentage and 1.32 DraftKings points per minute while Tatum has a 29.8 percent usage percentage and has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute. Tatum should end up being the highest usage player as the season goes on, but either of these guys are capable of taking over any individual game. Detroit ranks 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating through their first four games, allowing 113.4 points per 100 possessions. Tatum and Brown both look like strong options tonight, but I’d be careful about rostering them together since the Pistons are a bad team and they’re unlikely to keep up if both players are having big games at their relatively expensive salaries.
Tristan Thompson hadn’t played more than 22 minutes in a game this season prior to his game against the Pacers on Tuesday. He logged 26.8 minutes in that one and then rested in the Celtics game against Memphis the next night. It appears his playing time restriction has been relaxed and, if that’s the case, he looks like a tremendous value tonight. Thompson has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute so far this season and he averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute with the Cavaliers last season. If we expect 26-28 minutes from him tonight, he projects as one of the best values on the slate.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum ($8,600), Jaylen Brown ($8,100), Tristan Thompson ($4,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum ($9,500), Jaylen Brown ($7,900), Tristan Thompson ($4,300)
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons will be without Blake Griffin tonight, who left their last game with a possible concussion. Killian Hayes is questionable, while Frank Jackson is out and Jahlil Okafor is probable. I’m treating Hayes as if he will play for the purposes of this article, but we should expect more minutes for the combination of Derrick Rose, Delon Wright and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk if he sits.
The Pistons are one of the more difficult teams to project minutes for because they have no chance at competing this season, so their goals are partly about developing their young players. This means that they are more likely to adjust minutes on the fly within a game based on how players are playing than teams that are full of established veterans and care about winning games.
We saw Saddiq Bey start on Thursday when Griffin sat and then he started the second half on Friday when Griffin left the game. Based on that, I’m guessing that Bey starts again tonight. He played 30 minutes when he started Thursday, but he only played five minutes and 28 seconds after he started the second half on Friday. I think there is a good chance that we see upper twenties in minutes, just keep in mind that there is risk he plays less since the Pistons have a lot of interchangeable wing pieces that they can replace him with if he plays poorly. Bey has averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute in his limited playing time this season with a 20 percent usage percentage. He’s a strong point-per-dollar value option assuming he approaches 30 minutes tonight with Griffin out. He’s also not the type of player that’s particularly likely to score enough raw points to kill you if you don’t have him in tournaments on a 10-game slate. My tournament exposure to him will ultimately depend on how much better the rest of my lineup looks with him in it.
Josh Jackson started each of the last two games in place of Wright and I expect that to be the case again tonight. Jackson has been a strong fantasy producer throughout his career, averaging 0.94 DraftKings points per minute in 182 games played for several teams. He played 28 minutes against Atlanta and 29.5 minutes against the Warriors, and I expect we will see him in the 28-30 minute range again tonight. He’s averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 26.0 percent usage percentage, 11.7 percent rebounding percentage and 14.3 percent assist percentage. This is a difficult matchup against Boston, but there is still upside at his price point- especially on FanDuel where he is only $4,800.
Mason Plumlee had been a reliable source of minutes through his first three games with Detroit, before playing only 24.8 minutes and seeing rookie Isaiah Stewart close over him against Golden State. Jahlil Okafor is probable for tonight’s game as well, so there is competition for center minutes behind Plumlee. The most likely outcome is still that we get 28-30 minutes from Plumlee, but it wouldn’t be surprising if we see the Pistons go to a three-center rotation to get Stewart playing time and it just ends up being a mess for DFS. Plumlee is cheap enough that he has some upside in tournaments, but we can certainly find more reliable options on this slate.
Jerami Grant and Derrick Rose are both secondary options that would pair nicely with Tatum and/or Brown in tournament lineups. Grant has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.8 percent usage percentage this season while Rose has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.5 percent usage percentage. Since the start of last season, Rose has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute. Neither player projects as a top option but, if Tatum and Brown have big games and the Pistons remain competitive, there’s a good chance that at least one of Grant or Rose is outperforming their projection.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Saddiq Bey ($3,100), Josh Jackson ($5,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Saddiq Bey ($3,500), Josh Jackson ($4,800)
Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks (+1): 222.5
Miami Heat
Jimmy Butler is probable tonight, which is a slight downgrade to Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo and takes back-ups like Avery Bradley and Andre Iguodala out of play.
Assuming Butler is healthy, I expect him to return to his normal 34-plus minutes per game. He’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season and projects as a good mid-range option on DraftKings and FanDuel. Adebayo saw a price bump after his huge game without Butler against Milwaukee. He’s still in play in tournaments because he’s productive with Butler on the floor, but the increase in salary moves him out of cash consideration for me since we’re paying for his upside at this point. He’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute in games that Butler has played since the start of last season. His usage percentage is about two points lower and his assist percentage is about seven points lower in games with Butler than games without Butler over that time.
Like Adebayo, salaries have increased on Herro and Dragic as well. Neither player looks particularly appealing here, though Herro is still underpriced at $5,300 on FanDuel.
Nothing else from Miami looks noteworthy to me. Duncan Robinson can always get hot from three, but he doesn’t contribute anything else so he’s always a low-floor, medium-upside option.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jimmy Butler ($7,800), Bam Adebayo ($8,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jimmy Butler ($8,100), Tyler Herro ($5,300)
Dallas Mavericks
Kristaps Porzingis is still out and Maxi Kleber is questionable. If Kleber sits, I think it solidifies Willie Cauley-Stein’s role as the back-up center and could open up a few more minutes for James Johnson. It also makes it more likely that Dwight Powell reaches 26 or 27 minutes.
Luka Doncic has been awful to start the season and he’s coming off possibly the worst DFS game of his career (I haven’t looked it up I just doubt he’s had any that are worse). The thing is, though, we know who Doncic is as a player at this point. He’s not a great shooter, but he is a great scorer who also rebounds and racks up assists. His true shooting percentage is only 53.4 percent this season compared to 58.5 percent last season, so we should see more of his shots start falling as we go forward. With as poorly as he has played this season, he’s still averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute. Overall, he averaged 1.64 DraftKings points per minute in 14 games without Porzingis last season. His matchup tonight against the Heat is a tough spot to get back on track, but his salary has fallen all the way to $10,300 on DraftKings. He still has a 35.4 percent usage percentage, 11.0 percent rebounding percentage and 39.7 percent assist percentage this season, so I don’t think there is reason to be concerned. His FanDuel price is tougher to get to, but he’s still one of the top projected players on the slate if you can find enough value elsewhere to fit him in.
Outside of Doncic, there are some secondary values on Dallas. I don’t feel particularly confident in any of the other Mavericks individually, but they’re all inexpensive so there’s a good chance at least one of them has a good game for their salary. Josh Richardson would be the first one that I look to as he has averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute this season and should play 33-plus minutes as long as this game is competitive. After Richardson, all of Hardaway, Finney-Smith and Powell are a little bit underpriced for their ceilings, but they’re nothing more than “last player in” type tournament plays.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($10,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None
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Memphis Grizzlies at Charlotte Hornets (-3.5): 219.5
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis is dealing with a bunch of injuries tonight. They’re still without Jaren Jackson., as has been the case all season. They’ll also be without Ja Morant, De’Anthony Melton, Jontay Porter, Killian Tillie, Xavier Tillman and Justise Winslow. I don’t know who several of those people are, but I do know Morant and Melton being out is a big deal. Grayson Allen is also doubtful, which opens up even more minutes in the backcourt and on the wing.
Tyus Jones started and played 22.8 minutes in Wednesday’s blowout loss to the Celtics. Don’t read much into his minutes total as this game got out of hand not long after it started. Jones didn’t step on the floor in the fourth quarter. He played about 13.5 first half minutes. If we extrapolate that to the second half, he would play about 27 minutes. I think there is the potential for more, however, because he didn’t close the first against Boston and because Allen is doubtful so there could be a trickle-down effect on Jones’ playing time. I think 26-28 minutes is a safe projection for him, but there is room for him to play into the mid-thirties here- especially if he is playing well. The Hornets have played well defensively so far this season, but this is a much less imposing matchup than Boston was. Jones is still very affordable since he didn’t do anything on Wednesday to increase his salary. He averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute in six starts last season.
Desmond Bane started the second half in place of Allen and, if Allen misses this game, it is possible that Bane joins the starting lineup. He finished the game with 31.9 minutes played as he played throughout garbage time as well. The rookie first-round pick has averaged 0.63 DraftKings points per minute in 88 minutes this season and 0.77 DraftKings points per minute in 172 minutes including the preseason. I would expect him to be the fourth or fifth option offensively if he starts, but he would still project as a good point-per-dollar value if we expect about 30 minutes. It’s also not a guarantee that Bane starts, as we could see Jon Konchar or Brandon Clarke instead but, based on last game, my expectation right now is that Bane draws the start. If he comes off the bench, his usage projection would increase but his playing time would become more volatile.
Dillon Brooks played 28 minutes against Boston and lost his final rotation. I expect that we see at least 32-34 minutes from Brooks tonight if this game is close and he should see additional usage with Morant sidelined. Brooks has played 214 minutes alongside Jonas Valanciunas without either of Morant or Jackson on the floor since last season began. He has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.7 percent usage percentage and 17.2 percent assist percentage.
Kyle Anderson will see more ball-handling duties in the absence of Jones and Melton. As expected, he operated as the back-up point guard behind Tyus Jones in the game against Boston. Anderson has a 21.0 percent usage percentage and 13.8 percent rebounding percentage this season as he has benefitted from Jackson’s absence as well. He led the team with 14 potential assists in his 28 minutes against the Celtics on Wednesday. He’s relatively expensive, but don’t overlook him just because he’s normally not an exciting fantasy option. He’s averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute so far this season and there is a lot of production available for him to soak up right now.
Jonas Valanciunas and Brandon Clarke have some appeal in the frontcourt as well. Valanciunas had played 29, 30 and 34 minutes in his first three games of the season before only playing 24 minutes in the blowout loss to Boston. The biggest issue for Valanciunas in the past has been inconsistent playing time, but that hasn’t been a problem so far this season. I think one thing that helps solidify his playing time is that the Grizzlies have been using Gorgui Dieng as Valanciunas’ primary back-up and playing Clarke plenty of minutes alongside Valanciunas. Clarke is going to get his minutes one way or another, so it’s a good sign for Valanciunas that the Grizzlies seem fine with playing them together. In the 214 minutes that Valanciunas has shared the floor with Brooks without Morant or Jackson, he has a 24.7 percent usage percentage, 21.8 percent rebounding percentage and 13.0 percent assist percentage and has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute.
Clarke is a candidate to start and play more minutes if Memphis elects to play bigger. Any additional playing time is obviously good for Clarke, but keep in mind that his rates suffer when he plays alongside Valanciunas. Clarke has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute overall this season and averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute in 351 minutes alongside Valanciunas last season, compared to 1.13 DraftKings points per minute in 1,049 minutes without Clarke on the floor.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Tyus Jones ($5,100), Jonas Valanciunas ($8,300), Desmond Bane ($3,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Tyus Jones ($5,700), Jonas Valanciunas ($7,700), Desmond Bane ($3,700)
Charlotte Hornets
There is a lot less going on with the Hornets as Cody Zeller (out) is the only name on the injury report.
Charlotte, somehow, blew out the Mavericks in Dallas in their last game. James Borrego didn’t really take his foot off the gas too much despite the huge lead, which is nice to see in a season that has given us a ridiculous number of blowouts so far. All of the starters who weren’t in foul trouble played at least 29 minutes despite Charlotte having about a 30-point lead after three quarters. That has no impact on tonight, it’s just something to keep in mind and pay attention to because it’ll make their projections less volatile if it’s a trend that we can count on close to normal minutes in non-competitive games.
Bismack Biyombo started in place of Zeller and once again played close to 30 minutes. He still offers some value at his price point. He’s only averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute so far this season, but he averaged 0.95 points per minute as a starter last season. He isn’t exciting, but he isn’t the worst option as the last piece of a lineup.
P.J. Washington was extremely disappointing against the Mavericks as he dealt with foul trouble all game and only played 17.6 minutes. Hopefully that lowers his ownership because he’s still a really good fantasy option. Charlotte once again used him as the back-up center behind Biyombo, allowing him the benefit of playing about half his minutes at center and also seeing increased usage because he is playing with the second unit. Washington averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute when he was on the floor without another center last season and I expect him to get 18 minutes in that situation tonight if Biyombo plays 30 minutes.
Gordon Hayward was also terrible against the Mavericks, but he played 31 minutes and lost a few to the blowout. He’s played at least 34 minutes in each of Charlotte’s competitive games this season and he’s averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.7 percent usage percentage and 27.3 percent assist percentage. Hayward is second on the team so far this season with 9.5 potential assists per game.
Terry Rozier and Devonte’ Graham are similarly priced, with Graham being slightly less expensive on both sites. Rozier is the higher usage player as he leads the team with a 26.8 percent usage percentage compared to Graham’s 17.4 percent. Graham contributes more peripherals, with a 27.2 percent assist percentage and team-leading 11.5 potential assists per game. Graham also typically plays a couple more minutes than Rozier, though Rozier can get a little bit more playing time if he is playing well.
Miles Bridges and LaMelo Ball both played about 30 minutes against Dallas but they both benefitted from the blowout. Bridges also benefitted from Washington’s foul trouble. Both players are priced up enough for tonight’s game that I’m not interested in rostering them in hopes of a repeat performance.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Gordon Hayward ($7,100), P.J. Washington ($5,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Devonte’ Graham ($6,100)
Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets (-6): 244.5
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta was relatively healthy for one game and now they’re injured again. In addition to Kris Dunn, Onyeka Okongwu and Tony Snell, the Hawks will also be without Rajon Rondo and Danilo Gallinari again.
This game has a ridiculously high total and we saw these two teams basically break the slate when they combined for 286 points on Wednesday. The Hawks are fourth in pace through their first four games while Brooklyn is sixth in pace through their first five. Atlanta has allowed the fifth most points per 100 possessions to their opponents while Brooklyn actually is eighth-best in that category so far. Brooklyn isn’t expected to be a strong defensive team this season, however, so I expect their defensive numbers to slip as they play more games.
Trae Young only played 32 minutes against Brooklyn on Wednesday, but we’ll normally see 34-plus minutes from him in competitive games. He has a 35.1 percent usage percentage so far this season and he’s averaged 1.60 DraftKings points per minute. He’s eighth in the league with 15.3 potential assists per game and has a 40.7 percent assist percentage to go along with his massive usage percentage.
Gallinari’s absence should help all three of Cam Reddish, Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter to some extent as it opens up a few extra minutes for all of them. Bogdanovic is the most appealing of the group as he has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season and contributes in every stat category. Reddish has averaged 0.88 points per minute while Hunter has averaged 0.84 points per minute. I expect around 30 minutes from both of Bogdanovic and Reddish, with Hunter probably seeing a couple more.
John Collins had a monster game in 30.6 minutes as we finally got a game where he wasn’t in foul trouble. He had a slow start to the season from a DFS standpoint, but he had still averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute. His playing time was just down because he was in foul trouble in each of Atlanta’s first three games. It’s somewhat disappointing that he still only played about 30 minutes since we saw him get 34-plus minutes regularly last season. Still, he is getting some back-up center minutes behind Capela, which should be very productive, and he’s still affordably priced with power forward eligibility.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($10,100), John Collins ($7,200), Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($9,700), John Collins ($7,000), Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,400), De’Andre Hunter ($4,200)
Brooklyn Nets
Spencer Dinwiddie is out for Brooklyn, but the rest of their rotation players are healthy.
Kevin Durant had a monster game against Atlanta on Wednesday while Kyrie Irving was disappointing. My main takeaway from the game is that we saw them each play at least 34 minutes again, reinforcing that we can treat them like the stud DFS plays that they are without worrying about them being eased into things after missing most or all of last season. Durant has the slight lead in usage percentage so far at 30.3 percent to Irving’s 29.3 percent, while Irving leads in assist percentage 28.6 to 20.0. Durant has averaged 1.45 DraftKings points per minute and Irving has averaged 1.40 points per minute. Roster either one without hesitation tonight.
Caris LeVert came off the bench, which is good because he needs to be the alpha on the floor to be able to pay off his salary. There were two problems, however. First, he only played 24.2 minutes as he wasn’t in the closing lineup. Second, Durant played with the second unit for the first time this season. So, not only are we dealing with the potential of 24 minutes for LeVert, but we can’t even count on him to be the only high-usage player most of the time that he’s on the floor.
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot started and played 26.4 minutes- and his DraftKings salary decreased. TLC is going to have virtually no usage playing alongside Irving and Durant but, at the same time, he’s almost minimum salary and expected to play 25-plus minutes in a game with a 244-point total. Definitely don’t expect production out of him like we got in the game that Irving and Durant sat, but he’s not a much different play than guys like Bey or Bane who we’ve already talked about as relatively unexciting players with good point-per-dollar projections.
The Nets’ center rotation is going to be annoying all season long. You’re usually going to get about 40-44 combined minutes from DeAndre Jordan and Jarrett Allen, but it’s going to vary game to game which of them is on the positive side of that split. Jordan is much less expensive than Allen, so that’s probably where I’ll gamble. It is worth pointing out that, for the most part, Jordan was on the floor with Capela while Allen was on the floor with Collins on Wednesday. Capela has played 20 minutes in each of his games this season so my lean is that Allen plays more minutes than Jordan.
Joe Harris falls into the same bucket as guys like Reddish and Hunter where I’m perfectly happy to use him as a final piece of my lineup since he’s relatively inexpensive and playing in this game, but he isn’t someone I’m actively targeting because there are just so many good plays on this slate.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kyrie Irving ($9,300), Kevin Durant ($9,100), Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($3,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kyrie Irving ($9,300), Kevin Durant ($9,400)
Washington Wizards at Minnesota Timberwolves (-1): 234
Washington Wizards
Russell Westbrook is out, so it will be the Bradley Beal show and Raul Neto will most likely start at point guard.
Neto played 32.2 minutes against Orlando the last time that Westbrook sat out. Neto played extremely well in that game, so I don’t think we should necessarily expect another 32 minutes tonight- especially because Ish Smith only played 15.8 minutes so they played zero minutes alongside each other. Still, it tells us that Neto will at least have the opportunity to earn big minutes. DraftKings refused to move his salary even though we know that Westbrook isn’t playing on back-to-backs this year, so there’s essentially nothing but upside for Neto at $3,400. He’s a lot riskier on FanDuel at $4,500 since we would need him to get 30-plus minutes again to justify his roster spot. Smith is actually somewhat interesting in large field tournaments on FanDuel because I think this turns into close to a 24-minute split between the two a relatively high percentage of the time and he’s $700 less expensive. Still, that’s a thin play on a 10-game slate with plenty of value elsewhere.
Beal has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute with a 35.3 percent usage percentage in 1,112 minutes without any of Westbrook, Isaiah Thomas or Shabazz Napier on the floor since last season began. Beal played 34.5 minutes yesterday and we can expect another 34-plus minutes tonight in, what should be, a high-scoring game between two teams with awful defenses.
Thomas Bryant had a monster game against Chicago yesterday and he has another favorable matchup tonight against a weak Minnesota frontcourt. Bryant played 34 minutes yesterday and has averaged 31.2 minutes per game this season. He’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season and we should see his rebounding numbers improve without Westbrook on the floor.
Deni Avdija and Rui Hachimura are reasonable GPP-fliers in large field tournaments, similar to Harris, Hunter and Reddish from the Hawks and Nets game, because they’re inexpensive and in a great game environment. There are plenty of other plays that I’ll be prioritizing ahead of them, however.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal ($9,400), Thomas Bryant ($6,300), Raul Neto ($3,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal ($9,500), Thomas Bryant ($5,800)
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota will be without Karl-Anthony Towns, Josh Okogie and Jaylen Nowell again tonight, which opens up some value in one of the best DFS matchups possible.
D’Angelo Russell should play at least 32-33 minutes and has a much easier matchup tonight against the Wizards than he did last game against the Clippers. The Wizards are one of the fastest teams in the league and also one of the worst defenses. Russell has played 453 minutes without Towns on the floor since he joined Minnesota. He’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.6 percent usage percentage and 29.6 percent assist percentage over that time.
Ricky Rubio started in place of Okogie last game and played 25.6 minutes with about 15 minutes coming in the first half. Rubio has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season and he averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute with Phoenix last season, in a situation not too different from the situation that he’ll be in tonight- that is, playing alongside a high-usage, ball-handling two-guard with essentially no other ball-handlers or scorers on the floor for most of his minutes.
Naz Reid was an extreme disappointment last game as he only played 19.9 and never returned after subbing out three minutes into the second half. There’s no reason not to go back to him in this matchup, however. Reid is a strong per-minute producer, averaging 1.11 DraftKings points per minute with a 22.5 percent usage percentage in 568 minutes without Towns on the floor. We should get 26-28 minutes, if not more, from Reid assuming he stays out of foul trouble and the game is competitive.
Malik Beasley and Jarrett Culver round out the starting lineup and there is value here as well. Beasley has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season and 0.93 points per minute without Towns on the floor since joining Minnesota. He ranks behind Russell, Rubio ad Reid for me, but is still underpriced for his role in this offense against a team as bad as the Wizards. Culver started in place of Jake Layman last game and played 25.5 minutes, losing most of his final rotation to the blowout. I expect 28-30 minutes from Culver tonight, who has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute so far this season.
Anthony Edwards rounds out the appealing plays as he should get 24-26 minutes off the bench. It would be better if we could count on a little more playing time, but the number one overall pick this season averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.7 percent usage percentage. If he plays well, he could pick up a couple extra minutes as well.
It feels like I recommended the entire team but, factoring in price, Minnesota is easily one of the best teams to target on this slate.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: D’Angelo Russell ($7,500), Naz Reid ($5,200), Ricky Rubio ($5,200), Jarrett Culver ($4,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: D’Angelo Russell ($7,500), Naz Reid ($4,700), Ricky Rubio ($5,300), Malik Beasley ($5,200), Jarrett Culver ($4,300)
Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs (+6.5): 229.5
Los Angeles Lakers
LeBron James is questionable and Alex Caruso is out. For now, I’m assuming that James plays since he’s been questionable for their last couple of games and hasn’t missed one yet.
James and Anthony Davis are basically the starting point and ending point for me on this team if James is active. We should get at least 35 minutes from each of them as long as this game is competitive. James has averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute this season and averaged 1.57 points per minute in 59 games with Davis active last year. Davis has only averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute this season, but he averaged 1.46 points per minute in games with James active last season so we shouldn’t treat his year-to-date numbers with much importance. Neither James nor Davis look like the best pay-up options on the slate, but I’m certainly fine with getting to them in tournaments.
Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell are more favorably priced on FanDuel than DraftKings, but it’s still difficult to see them as more than GPP-fliers given the number of elite plays elsewhere on this slate.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($10,000), Anthony Davis ($9,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($10,400), Anthony Davis ($10,500)
San Antonio Spurs
LaMarcus Aldridge is questionable and Quinndary Weatherspoon is out. Aldridge’s availability is obviously big news as his absence would increase the usage available for the other starters and open up minutes for Jakob Poeltl at center. The other big piece of injury news is that Derrick White is not on the injury report, so he should play for the first time this season. His availability isn’t good news for Dejounte Murray since Murray now has a quality back-up that will occasionally steal playing time from him, but I’m not overly concerned about it tonight in White’s first game back- especially with how well Murray has been playing.
Murray and DeRozan look like secondary tournament options if Aldridge is in and they would get slight bumps if he sits. On a lot of slates, they would look even better, but there are just some many great plays tonight outside of this game. I expect 32-plus minutes from Murray and 34-plus minutes from DeRozan tonight. Murray has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute this season while DeRozan has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute. We should expect those numbers to move back toward last year’s averages, however. Murray has averaged 1.09 fantasy points per minute since the start of last season and DeRozan has averaged 1.15 points per minute.
Jakob Poeltl was disappointing in his start last game as he only played 24 minutes due to foul trouble. Based on his rotations, though, I think that we were going to get about 30 minutes from him without foul trouble. Poeltl averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute in 13 starts without Aldridge last season, so he would project as a strong value option again if Aldridge sits.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: DeMar DeRozan ($7,300), Dejounte Murray ($6,900), Jakob Poeltl– if Aldridge is out ($4,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jakob Poeltl– if Aldridge is out ($4,600)
Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks (-14.5): 233.5
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls pulled off a close win against Washington yesterday and are now primed to get destroyed by the Bucks. Chicago is short-handed due to injury and Covid-protocols and they’ll be missing Lauri Markkanen, Tomas Satoransky, Chandler Hutchison and Ryan Arcidiacono.
Chicago used a nine-man rotation yesterday, with Coby White leading the team with 40 minutes and Zach LaVine coming in second with about 35 minutes. Nobody else topped 31 minutes and seven players played at least 22 minutes. Surprisingly, Patrick Williams was one of the two players who played less than 20 minutes and I wouldn’t expect that to be the case today.
LaVine and White are the top two plays here as they’ll have to play well for the Bulls to have any chance in this game. LaVine has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.8 percent usage percentage and 19.8 percent assist percentage this season while White has averaged 0.91 points per minute with a 20.6 percent usage percentage and 24.8 percent assist percentage. Neither of these plays stand out in the context of the entire slate, but I would look to them as run-back options in tournaments if you are rostering a main piece from the Bucks.
Thaddeus Young is a strong value option as he played 27 minutes off the bench in his first game of the season yesterday. There is some risk that he plays less tonight with it being the second half of a back-to-back, especially since Williams only played 18 minutes yesterday so it would be easy for him to play more tonight at the expense of Young. Still, I assume we get at least 20-22 minutes here with the potential for more and he is close to the minimum salary.
Otto Porter looks like an excellent value on FanDuel at $4,400. Like Young, there is some risk here as he could play fewer minutes on the second half of the back-to-back after playing almost 31 minutes yesterday. At $4,400, however, he probably only needs 24-26 minutes to pay off his salary.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Thaddeus Young ($3,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Thaddeus Young ($3,700), Otto Porter ($4,400)
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are fully healthy, except for Torrey Craig, and they enter this game as massive favorites against the Bulls. Keep in mind that the last time people shied away from the Bucks because of blowout risk, Milwaukee was destroyed by the Knicks so anything can happen.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing huge minutes this season in close games, which is great to see. The problem is that it’s obviously unlikely this game is close throughout four quarters. That’s not to say that Giannis can’t be one of the highest scorers on the slate, as he is the best per-minute producer in the league and if the Bucks run away with it there is a good chance that Giannis had a monster game in fewer minutes than normal. I’ll be interested in Antetokounmpo in tournaments if his ownership is low, but the spread will probably be enough reason for me to lean to other options in cash on a slate with a ton of strong options- unless it’s really easy to get Antetokounmpo in my lineup along with another stud.
Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday look like strong mid-range options since it’s easier for them to put up a big score at their price in three quarters than it is for Giannis and the points are going to come from somewhere. Middleton has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute this season while Holiday has averaged 1.15 points per minute. Like Antetokounmpo, I think both of Middleton and Holiday are very good plays. There are just other plays at their price points that look slightly better.
Bobby Portis is interesting in tournaments as he has multiple ways to get there. He could simply have a big game for his salary in his normal amount of playing time as he is averaging over 1 fantasy point per minute this season. He could also get additional run as a result of foul trouble to Lopez or a blowout. He is far from a priority on this slate, but he is a high-upside way to get cheap exposure to a team with a 123-point implied total.
Los Angeles Clippers at Utah Jazz (+3.5): 221
Los Angeles Clippers
Marcus Morris is still out but the Clippers are healthy otherwise.
Like the Lakers, the Clippers are a much more interesting team for DFS purposes when one of their main players are out. With both of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George playing, they are the two pieces that I’m most interested in- and I’m not even that interested.
Leonard and George always give you a high ceiling in tournaments, but neither stands out on this slate in a relatively unappealing matchup against Utah. Leonard averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute in 37 games with George active last season while George averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute in those games. They both look like decent plays on a slate where there are a ton of great plays. There’s nothing wrong with getting to them in tournaments but on a ten-game slate, I don’t even think they’re that close to the top of my list of contrarian pivots.
Outside of those two, there’s nothing really here for me. You can always make a case for Lou Williams, Ivica Zubac or Serge Ibaka in tournaments based on their strong per-minute production, but I’ll be really surprised if I get to them much at all even where I have 150 lineups because there are so many great plays in the $4,500 to $6,000 price range tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Paul George ($7,800)
Utah Jazz
The Jazz played yesterday and haven’t released their injury report for tonight’s game. They didn’t suffer any injuries during the game that we know of, however, so I’m assuming that they’re at full strength for now.
A team at full strength in a tough matchup against the Clippers isn’t going to stand out on a slate like this. That said, I do think that there is value in Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell on DraftKings in particular. I wrote a bit about Mitchell yesterday, basically pointing out that his rates and playing time this season are about the same as last season and the primary reason for his lack of production is that he has shot worse than his career averages. He confirmed this after last night’s game when he said that his problem so far this season has been that “[he is] shooting like shit”. One of the most profitable spots to attack in NBA DFS is falling price tags on players where everything is in line with their career numbers except for a shooting slump. He isn’t a priority since there are so many other options, but there’s no question that Mitchell has the ability to destroy a $6,800 if his shot starts to fall.
Gobert has averaged 1.30 fantasy points per minute this season as he’s seen a slight increase in usage percentage to 19.2 percent. Gobert is one of the most efficient players in the league, so that makes a bigger difference for him than it does most players. His rebounding percentage and assist percentage are also up from last season, though his potential assists and rebound chances don’t do much to support that increase being real. The main reason that I have some interest in Gobert is that even using mostly last season’s numbers, he’s averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season and that makes him project well at his current price tag. The issue with Gobert is that there is high-upside value at the center position and also a couple of very good expensive options so he may get squeezed out during roster construction.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Donovan Mitchell ($6,800), Rudy Gobert ($7,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Rudy Gobert ($7,900)
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets (-3.5): 220.5
Phoenix Suns
The Suns also played last night, so we don’t have their injury report. Nobody notable was missing from last night’s game, however, and I’m assuming that will be the case tonight as well.
The main three from Phoenix, Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton are secondary options in tournaments because they’re reasonably priced and all have high ceilings. None of them stand out as top plays, however, because they aren’t drastically underpriced.
Paul has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute this season which is in line with the 1.19 points per minute that he averaged last season. We should expect 30-32 minutes from Paul in a middle of the road matchup tonight against Denver.
Booker has maintained a high usage percentage with the addition of Paul, but his assist numbers have taken a hit. He enters tonight’s game with a 30.7 percent usage percentage but only an 18.9 percent assist percentage. By comparison, booker had a 30.2 percent usage percentage and 29.9 percent assist percentage in the games that he played with Ricky Rubio last season. We could see the assist numbers increase for Booker as the sample size grows, but I think he is best viewed as a scoring dependent tournament option until we see it start to happen.
Ayton is a strong per-minute producer, but his usage rate has taken a hit so far this season as he sits at just 17.2 percent compared to about 23.5 percent last season. I think the usage will come back, but the bigger concern for me has been his rotations. We’ve regularly seen Ayton run shorter rotations this season and end up with 28-30 minutes in competitive games instead of the 34-35 minutes that we routinely saw last season.
All three players have flaws, but they also are capable of exploding in any given game, making them viable tournament options assuming they don’t garner much ownership.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Devin Booker ($8,000), Chris Paul ($6,800), DeAndre Ayton ($7,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Devin Booker ($7,700), Chris Paul ($7,400), DeAndre Ayton ($7,100)
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets will be without Michael Porter tonight due to Covid protocols. JaMychal Green is questionable and Jamal Murray is probable.
Porter’s absence opens up more minutes for Will Barton and helps to solidify playing time for Paul Millsap. Beyond those two, I’m not digging too deep into Denver’s rotation on a massive slate with tons of strong value options. Porter’s absence also opens up more usage for everyone in the starting lineup, with Murray and Nikola Jokic being the two most likely to absorb it. Barton has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute over his last season and could step into 30-32 minutes tonight, if not more. He looks like a quality value play.
Murray is affordable and could see a usage bump tonight without Porter. Murray missed Denver’s last game but, assuming he is healthy tonight, we can expect 34-plus minutes if this game is competitive. Murray has averaged 1.06 fantasy points per minute since the start of last season.
Jokic is one of my favorite plays on the slate as he is playing monster minutes this season with Mason Plumlee no longer on the team. Jokic averaged about 36 minutes per game in games without Plumlee last season and it’s carried over to this season with Jokic averaging 38.3 minutes per game through Denver’s first four games. There was an overtime game mixed in where he played 42 minutes, but Jokic also only played 34 minutes against Houston as he lost five minutes to a blowout. Jokic is second in the league with 19.3 potential assists per game and fifth with 19.8 rebound chances per game. He also has a 28.1 percent usage percentage so far this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($10,600), Jamal Murray ($6,700), Will Barton ($5,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($10,200), Jamal Murray ($6,800), Will Barton ($5,000)
Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors (+3.5): 234.5
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is mostly healthy, with Zach Collins and Nassir Little out and Gary Trent Jr. questionable.
Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are both high-upside tournament options that just don’t project well enough compared to other players to be considered priorities. The matchup against Golden State is a good one as the Warriors should struggle defensively this season and either of these two can take advantage. Terry Stotts has been staggering their minutes as well, which adds to their upside. I prefer Lillard to McCollum as McCollum’s salary has increased due to an unsustainably good start to the season, but it’s tough to go to Lillard over similarly priced guards like Trae Young or Kyrie Irving, among others. That will probably be how most of the field feels too, however, so that’s why there is some tournament appeal here.
Jusuf Nurkic has the same issue as DeAndre Ayton this season where his rotations are just shorter than they were last year. We’re typically seeing 14 or 15 minutes per half for Nurkic. If we expect about 30 minutes from Nurkic, he still has upside in tournaments since it’s a good spot against Golden State’s frontcourt, but he doesn’t project as a top play since there are a lot of very strong center options tonight.
Robert Covington only played about 25 minutes last game with Carmelo Anthony back in the lineup, but he did lose his final rotation to a blowout. I think we’re looking at around 30 minutes for Covington tonight against Golden State, which makes him a good value in a matchup where he should be able to rack up plenty of defensive stats against a sloppy Golden State team. Derrick Jones is basically the same play as Covington, just a less expensive and less productive version.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard ($9,800), Jusuf Nurkic ($6,700), Robert Covington ($4,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard ($9,300), Jusuf Nurkic ($7,000), Derrick Jones0 ($4,000)
Golden State Warriors
Draymond Green is probable while Eric Paschall is questionable. Marquese Chriss, Klay Thompson and Alen Smailagic remain out.
This will be Green’s first game of the season and his return should help Golden State, at least to some extent. It gives them another actual NBA player that will replace players who wouldn’t get minutes on almost any other team in the league. We aren’t getting Green at much of a discount, however, so I’m not particularly interested in rostering him in his first game back.
Stephen Curry is the primary target here, as is usually the case. He’s shot a little below his career averages so far with a 58.2 percent true shooting percentage compared to 62.3 percent for his career. He’s still averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute, however, with a 31.8 percent usage percentage and 38.4 percent assist percentage. We should get 34-36 minutes from Curry if this game is competitive and there’s a good chance that it turns into a back-and-forth shootout between him and Lillard. There are a lot of expensive guards on this slate, including Lillard on the other side of this game, but Curry is one of my favorites.
Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre are secondary tournament options if you’re looking for a piece of this game and can’t afford Curry. They both come with plenty of upside, especially Wiggins who is second on the team with a 24.2 percent usage percentage this season. Wiggins played 38 minutes to Oubre’s 29 against Detroit, and he has typically gotten more minutes than Oubre so far this season so he’s my preferred option between the two.
James Wiseman has some upside at his price point if he can stay out of foul trouble and get to about 26 minutes. The problem is just that there are so many other centers who I think play more than Wiseman’s best possible minutes projection that it’s really difficult to get to him.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($9,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($9,900), Andrew Wiggins ($6,400)
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