A number of bets stand out as strong values ahead of the UFC 264 Poirier vs. McGregor III card. This particular card features a number of volatile fights, which potentially creates value on a few sharp underdogs. Combined with a few safer picks, we will go over some UFC expert picks. Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool is a crucial key to maximizing profits in these betting markets. Let’s get into the UFC betting picks and start cashing on some of these big-hitting tickets.
UFC Vegas Odds & Betting Picks: Poirier vs. McGregor III
Dustin Poirier -125 (BetMGM)
Headlining UFC 264, Dustin Poirier takes on Conor McGregor for the third time. Their first fight was in 2014, ending in a knockout victory for McGregor. Since then, Poirier boasts a 10-2 professional record, while McGregor is 6-3. The second fight between these two came in January of this year, with Poirier winning by second-round knockout. Poirier lands 5.59 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.17. With a boxing/karate background, McGregor inflicts 5.34 significant strikes himself. Both fighters have 54% striking defense and legit knockout power here. Four of Poirier’s last six wins came via knockout, while McGregor has 10 knockouts at the UFC level. Poirier has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, averages 1.47 takedowns per bout and has seven submission victories. McGregor lands 0.70 takedowns himself but relies on his 67% takedown defense. Despite his defense and savvy scrambling ability, McGregor already has four submission losses in his career. Poirier also looks to have the superior strength of schedule of late. Since McGregor’s 2018 loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov, his lone victory came over a declining Donald Cerrone. Meanwhile, Poirier has wins over Max Holloway, Dan Hooker and McGregor, with his only loss also coming to Nurmagomedov. Between the edge on the mat and the stronger competition, Poirier is the superior bet. Poirier opened around -110 on most books, but his odds continue to climb. Right now, he sits at -125, but this bet should be locked in as early as possible to preserve value.
Niko Price +145 (William Hill)
Niko Price has upset potential against Michel Pereira. Price is 6-4-2 in the UFC with a pair of no contests. He defeated James Vick in 2019 but lost to Vicente Luque by doctor’s stoppage last year. However, the fight was close, and Luque only out-struck Price 130-129. Price most recently fought Donald Cerrone to a draw after the judges took a point for eye pokes. The fight was later ruled no contest after a positive drug test for Price. Meanwhile, Pereira is coming off a pair of wins over Zelim Imadaev and Khaos Williams, bringing his UFC record to 3-2. Price is the far more aggressive fighter here, landing 5.33 significant strikes to Pereira’s 3.74. Price also attempts more takedowns, but this may not be his best path to victory. Pereira is a black belt in jiu-jitsu, giving him the edge on the mat. Still, Price has not been taken down in any of his last three fights and has 72% takedown defense. As it stands, Price has the superior strength of schedule in the UFC and better cardio. While Price has been knocked out at times, a longer fight favors him based on output alone. This fight is -125 to make it to decision, but Price has shown enough volume to pull off an upset here.
Yana Kunitskaya +100 (SugarHouse)
In the women’s bantamweight division, Yana Kunitskaya faces Irene Aldana as a slight underdog. Kunitskaya originally opened at +125 odds, but she has already been bet down to +110. Kunitskaya sits at 4-2 in the UFC with two straight wins over Julija Stoliarenko and Ketlen Vieira. Meanwhile, Aldana enters this first fresh off a loss to Holly Holm, reducing her record to 5-4 in the UFC. On the feet Aldana has a negative striking ratio. She inflicts 5.52 significant strikes per minute for every 5.97 absorbed. This could be an issue against Kunitskaya’s taekwondo and Muay Thai background. Kunitskaya lands 4.22 significant strikes per minute, absorbing just 2.62. On the mat Kunitskaya also has a potential advantage. She averages 1.62 takedowns per bout with 53% accuracy. Aldana has 84% takedown defense, but Holm took her down five times in their recent fight. While neither is much of a submission threat, takedowns could provide another path to solidifying rounds. With multiple advantages on her side, Kunitskaya looks like the sharp side of this fight at +110 odds.
Ryan Hall +195 (PointsBet)
Ryan Hall faces Ilia Topuria in the featured prelim. Hall has not fought since 2019, most recently defeating Darren Elkins. However, he is a perfect 4-0 in his most recent fights. Similarly, Topuria is 10-0 in his career, with two wins at the UFC level over Youssef Zalal and Damon Jackson. Neither fighter is particularly aggressive on the feet. Hall lands 2.32 significant strikes per minute compared to 2.50 for Topuria. However, both are accomplished on the mat. Hall is a third-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and veteran of over 300 pure grappling matches. However, he lands just 0.32 takedowns per bout and has 16% accuracy. Topuria is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He averages 4.25 takedowns with 55% accuracy. Hall has never faced a takedown attempt in the UFC, while Topuria has 100% takedown defense on two attempts. While both fighters are at different points in their careers, they have a similar skillset. With Hall’s experience advantage, +195 odds look enticing here in the UFC betting markets. Even a small bet on Hall provides the chance for a big payday.
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