After last week’s action-packed Pay Per View event, the UFC returns to the Apex Center for UFC Vegas 58: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev. After some cancellations and rebookings, the card has settled on 12 fights. Most have fairly close betting odds, so there’s less opportunity to make big profits — unless you look to the prop market. There’s plenty of ways to get action in at longer odds on this card, with my favorite two selections below. Rather than betting on the winner, UFC props let bettors wager on the length of the fight, method of victory, and much more. This gives bettors multiple ways to bet when making their UFC Vegas 58: Dos Anojs vs. Fiziev prop picks and predictions tonight.
UFC Fight Night Predictions & Prop Pick Bets
Jared Vanderaa and Chase Sherman Prediction | Claim Your $200 FREE at BetMGM
Jared Vanderaa and Chase Sherman are two of the lower-tier heavyweights in the UFC. Vanderaa is 1-4 in his UFC career, with his lone win coming by decision against Justin Tafa. Sherman is riding a four fight losing streak, and had been released before agreeing to step up on short notice to fight Alexander Romanov.
Heavyweight fights are usually the likeliest fights to end by a finish — primarily knockouts. As humans get bigger and stronger they can generate more force, but the brain and skull don’t get proportionally more durable. However, that hasn’t seemed to be the case with either of these fighters. The average UFC fighter (not heavyweight) scores a knockdown about once per 10 rounds. Vanderaa has yet to record one in 11 rounds of action, while Sherman has scored just two across 27 rounds.
Both are also fairly durable on their feet, but susceptible to being finished on the ground. Vanderaa has been finished on the ground thrice in his four UFC losses, including submissions as well as ground and pound. Sherman lost his last two fights by submission, following two decision losses. However, neither of these fighters have so much as attempted a takedown in the UFC — though Vanderaa has one on the Contender Series.
That creates a situation where it’s hard to see how either fighter finishes the fight. Neither throw heavy shots standing, and it seems unlikely that either makes it a grappling match. Vanderaa has the upside on the ground, but if Sherman can survive the first round/trip to the mat, it’s unlikely Vanderaa has the gas tank to bring him down repeatedly.
My favorite bet here is the fight to go to a decision at +165 on DraftKings, but there’s a number of ways to play it. The risk-averse could take the over 1.5 rounds, offered by BetRivers at -167. Since the likeliest finish is early rather than late, I won’t be going there, but it protects you against an attritional stoppage late in the fight.
Additionally, Vanderaa by decision is +300. He’s the better overall fighter here, so he should take the win one way or the other. I’m wary of trusting judges to get things right though, so that one introduces some additional risk.
Best UFC 276 Prop Pick: Sherman/Vanderaa to go the distance +165 (DraftKings)
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Tresean Gore vs. Cody Brundage Prediction | Claim Your $200 FREE at BetMGM
Gore vs. Brundage is another lower-level fight by UFC standards. Brundage lost a bout on Dana White’s Contender Series, while Gore is just 4-1 officially as a pro, though he effectively finished second on the Ultimate Fighter Season 28. They’re facing off on the prelims, with both of them needing a win to prove their legitimacy in the UFC.
Gore is the favored fighter here but the line has swung a bit his way, making props a better way to play this one. He looked solid — at times — even in defeat in his UFC debut against Bryan Battle, throwing heavy strikes but losing a decision thanks to far better output from Battle. Gore is fairly new to the sport though, with just seven pro fights even if we count the exhibitions on TUF. His output seemed to be more hesitancy than lack of cardio, which is certainly fixable at this point in his career.
Brundage is a wrestler, who lost his UFC debut to Nick Maximov, before snatching a guilltine in a fight he was losing to Dalcha Lungiambula. Up to that point, he had been outstruck 50-4 in less than four minutes of fight time. He seems to be a very hittable target, which is advantageous for Gore, who also holds a three-inch reach edge.
We haven’t really seen it in his statistics yet, but Gore at least appears to have big power. He finished Gilbert Urbina to qualify for the TUF championship round, and the eye test is certainly there. If he can find the chin of Brundage as often as Lungiambula did — or anywhere close — he should be able to put Brundage away.
His knockout prop is as high as +290 at FanDuel, a fair bit above the rest of the market. Bettors could also hedge against the risk of a “club-n-sub” situation by playing Gore inside the distance at +225, by I prefer the longer odds on the knockout prop against a grappler.
Best UFC Fight Night Prop Pick: Tresean Gore by (T)KO +290 (FanDuel)
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