The FedEx Cup Playoffs begin this week with the Northern Trust at Liberty National Golf Course (par 71, 7,410 yards) in Jersey City, N.J. This is the fourth time this course has hosted the first leg of the playoffs, with the 2009 and 2013 Barclays and 2019 Northern Trust all being held at Liberty National. Only the top 125 players in FedEx Cup points have been invited to compete this week, and Louis Oosthuizen is the only player of this group that has elected to skip the Northern Trust. Following this event, the playoffs will continue with the top 70 in points advancing to the BMW Championship, then the top 30 will advance to East Lake for the Tour Championship.
If you have not already, this week is a perfect time to check out Monkey Knife Fight — a new style of PGA fantasy with a twist on the usual DFS golf this week — with the fantasy site offering some great contests for the Northern Trust. Below I will break down some of the best fantasy golf Monkey Knife Fight picks for this week.
MKF Fantasy Golf Picks: Northern Trust
More or Less – Pick More/Less for Each Player | Prize: 3x
This Monkey Knife Fight contest is like a prop in that players must choose if each golfer will score more or less of their fantasy line. If all three are correct, the payout is three times the buy-in. It is worth noting that MKF’s fantasy golf scoring system is different compared to other DFS sites. No points are awarded for finishing position or streaks, nor do players lose points for bogeys. Their scoring system is simple:
Eagle or Better: 5
Birdie: 3
Par: 1
John Rahm: More Than 101.5 Fantasy Points
Collin Morikawa: Less Than 100.5 Fantasy Points
Rahm returns this week after being forced to withdraw from the Olympics due his second positive COVID-19 test of the season. He suffered no symptoms and has had nearly month off to prepare for the playoffs. Rahm’s last start came at the British Open, where his tie for third place marked his 12th top-10 of the season, which is the most by any player on tour this year. Now he heads to Liberty National Golf Club, where he finished in a tie for third place two years ago. Rahm ranks second in strokes gained tee to green this season and first in total strokes over the last 50 rounds on par 71s.
Since Morikawa’s win at the British Open, his irons have been trending in the wrong direction. His first two starts since the major have been at the Tokyo Olympics and the WGC-FedEx St. Jude, and Morikawa shockingly failed to gain strokes on approach at either event. This is only the second time in his entire career that he has not produced strokes with his irons in back-to-back starts, and while it was back in 2019, Morikawa’s first attempt at Liberty National resulted in a mediocre 52nd-place finish. The under is the play here.
More or Less – Pick More/Less for Each Player | Prize: 3x
Jordan Spieth: Over 17.5 Birdies
Dustin Johnson: Over 17.5 Birdies
After finishing 19th at Liberty National in 2013, Spieth placed sixth at this venue in 2019. He now returns to Jersey City in outstanding form and should be in the mix for the top prize come Sunday afternoon. He is riding a streak of 14 made cuts and has eight top-10 finishes over this timeframe, ranking him ninth in Awesemo’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings. All three of the golfers to win at Liberty National ranked seventh or better in par-4 efficiency, so par four play is going to be critical this week. This set up extremely well for Spieth, who ranks second in strokes gained on par 4’s across his last 24 rounds. Furthermore, he ranks second in birdie-or-better percentage over this span and had at least 18 birdies in six of his past 10 starts.
Johnson has also been converting birdies at a strong rate, with a minimum of 18 in three of his last four starts, and he is fresh off a terrific showing at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude. During this 10th-place finish, Johnson gained strokes in every major department, including 5.7 strokes tee to green. Every golfer to claim a victory at Liberty National has finished top five in strokes gained tee to green for the tournament, and if the improved ball striking continues this week, Johnson should thrive at this playoff opener. He has finished in the top five twice at Liberty National, including a 19-birdie performance in 2019.
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