2023 PGA begins here. The Sentry Tournament of Champions marks the beginning of the road towards the next four major championships and start of daily fantasy golf for 2023. This event features a limited 39-man field that this season will feature 17 of the world’s top 20 players from the OWGR. From the current top 20 only Rory McIlroy (personal), Cameron Smith (Liv) and Shane Lowry (did not qualify) will not be in attendance. The participants in this event are all winners on the PGA Tour from last season OR made the 30-man field at the year-end Tour Championship. The PGA Tour officially changed the criteria for qualifiers this year and thusly expanded the field which used to top out around 34 golfers.
With a limited field event that means there will be no Friday cut at the first event of 2023 and every golfer will get in four rounds. This is typically a very low scoring tournament. As an example, last season Cameron Smith set the event scoring record at 34-under par. Despite the event being near the ocean the winds here often don’t have that dramatic of an effect on the scores and the larger greens and fairways means players can be aggressive on nearly every hole.
Don’t forget to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, which has both scoring data, and PGA DFS ownership projections. Stokastic PGA DFS projections come out on Monday and will be updated throughout the week. The smaller field means every edge will be significant.
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PGA DFS Picks: 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
This field will feature a plethora of top players, many of whom have had plenty of past success at this event. Each of Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im and Jordan Spieth have finished in the top five at this event at least once. Spieth, Thomas (x2), and Schauffele have all won the event at least once.
The Tournament of Champions has truly been a champions event with an elite group of winners attached. Of the past 10 champions, eight have won majors to this point in their career and 2018 winner Xander Schauffele has also grabbed one of only two gold medals handed out for men’s golf this century. This has also been a tournament that has favored players coming in with solid form, both from the fall and last year’s FedEx Cup playoffs.
Six of the last Seven winners at the Tournament of Champions all either won a FedEx Cup playoff event (in the previous year), finished runner-up in a FedEx Cup Playoff event from the previous year, or won a fall series event in the previous year. To summarize, players coming into this event had already been showing some great form in the previous year’s playoffs or had played a busy fall schedule with some great results.
Below are some of the top players in the field this week from a recent perspective:
- Seamus Power: Power didn’t do much in the FedEx Cup playoffs this year, but he did win his second event of 2022 over the fall at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Working against him this week is the fact he’ll be playing this event for just the second time. Working for him is a very solid flatstick and some great recent form with his irons.
- Brian Harman: Harman had a fall and a half, posting runner-up finishes in Mayakoba and Sea Island. He’s one of the most consistent putters on tour and has gained strokes with his irons in seven straight events. He’s played this event twice before and was third in 2018.
- Scottie Scheffler: Scheffler is playing this event for the second time in his career. He’s second in strokes gained approach stats over the last 50-rounds and landed two top 10 finishes in the fall, to go along with an agonizing second place at the Tour Championship in late August. He should be primed and motivated for early season success.
- Tony Finau: Finau was on a tear all of 2022. He grabbed three wins, with his latest coming in the fall at the Houston Open. The big hitter really found his groove with the putter last season and ranks out third in SG: Putting over the last 24-rounds — making him a bigger threat at this venue this season than in year’s past.
- Sahith Theegala: Theegala came close to winning at the RSM over the fall, grabbing a second-place finish there. He also grabbed a win at the QBE Shootout, an offseason exhibition event. He’ll be playing Kapalua for the first time but has proven he can be a threat at multiple different styles of venues last year.
Field notes: This will be Will Zalatoris’ first event back since he suffered a back injury in the playoffs last year. The lack of competitive practice makes him a risky target this week. Jon Rahm won twice over the fall on the DP World Tour and has finished runner-up at this event twice already. Seeing him dominate would not be overly shocking. Xander Schauffele has one of the best track records at this event in the field. He finished 5th or better at this event between 2018 to 2021 before drifting to 12th place last year.
Sentry Tournament of Champions Past Winners and Winners Stats
2022: Cam Smith
- Lead-in: fall 2021 – 4/15/9, FedEx playoffs 2021: 34/2/5th (lost in playoff at Northern Trust)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 4.0/SG:APP 2.7/SG:ATG 1.7 /SG:PUTT 6.5/SG:TTG 8.4
2021: Harris English
- Lead in: fall 2021 – 5/6/28, FedEx playoffs 2021: 12/40/2 (4th at US Open in fall of 2021)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 2.5/SG:APP 1.0/SG:ATG 0.1/SG:PUTT 6.8/SG:TTG 3.4
2020: Justin Thomas
- Lead-in: fall 2021 – 4/15/9, FedEx playoffs 2021: 34/2/5th – lost in playoff at Northern Trust)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 2.5/SG:APP 5.7/SG:ATG 1.8/SG:PUTT 0.9/SG:TTG 10.0
Stats for this event are a little all over the place. Great putters have tended to do very well at the Plantation Course and, with easy to hit fairways and greens, most of the top names will have plenty of birdie chances and opportunities to get hot with the putter. However, gaining 6.0+ strokes putting isn’t a prerequisite to winning as Justin Thomas showed us most recently in 2020 when he gained over 10.0 strokes tee to green but less than 1.0 stroke putting.
Ultimately players at the Plantation Course won’t be missing many greens or fairways so really hyper-emphasizing great iron players — but also great putters who can spike for a big week at a moment’s notice — is the best approach.
Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions Course Preview
Plantation Course — Kapalua, Maui (Hawaii)
Par 73, 7,596 yards
Greens: TifEagle Bermuda
Designer: Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw (1991); Renovated (2019)
Similar Courses: OHL Classic (El Chameleon), TPC Boston, Albany Golf Course (Hero)
The Plantation Course is similar parts unique and antiquated for the PGA pros. The venue is the only par 73 on the PGA Tour schedule and is unique for its layout which includes just three par 3’s and four par 5’s. The strange layout aside, the venue is one of the easiest the pros will visit all year.
- Driving accuracy numbers here can creep as high as 80% and GIR% can creep well past that. These are monster greens and give players tons of room to miss, meaning they can be aggressive on almost every hole.
- The large greens do mean players see a lot of longer putts and the average proximity from the hole on approach is quite a bit longer than the PGA average. Good three-putt avoidance and strong putting from 10 feet and in is helpful. Last year’s winner Cameron Smith ranked first in three-putt avoidance on the PGA last year.
- Big hitters do still carry an advantage but with how easy the fairways are to hit, everyone can be aggressive on their second shot and plenty of shorter or average off the tee players (Reed, Henley, Harmon, Spieth, Smith) have won or posted top three finishes at this event.
The tamer setup really makes this almost like an exhibition course, which really gives great putters and iron players a shot to go low, much like Cameron Smith did last year. If the wind gets up, it will certainly tip the scales back in favor of bigger hitters and the world’s best ball-strikers.
2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions Recent Form Watch
Strokes Gained on Approach (Last 50 Rounds)
- Will Zalatoris
- Scottie Scheffler
- Collin Morikawa
- Russell Henley
- Xander Schauffele
Strokes Gained Putting (Bermuda – last 50 rounds)
- Sam Burns
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Sepp Straka
- Billy Horschel
- Mackenzie Hughes
Strokes Gained Total (last six events)
- Seamus Power
- Brian Harman
- Aaron Wise
- Viktor Hovland
- Tony Finau
Sentry TOC Weather Forecast
Thursday a.m.: 72 F, winds 8-10 mph/0% chance of precipitation
Thursday p.m.: 77 F, winds 12-14 mph/0% chance of precipitation
Friday a.m.: 73 F, winds 11 mph/0% chance of precipitation
Friday p.m.: 79 F, winds 14-17 mph/0% chance of precipitation
There’s not much to worry about this week. It’s a no cut event and tee times will be stacked close together. The sun will be shining and winds likely won’t be violent enough to cause a huge concern. Expect low scores and players to challenge -30 if weather is calm.
2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions Early Betting Targets and DFS Picks
Scottie Scheffler | BetMGM Outright
Scottie Scheffler will only be playing this event for the second time in his career, but he should come in motivated. The 2022 Masters winner let some wins slip away from him in the second half of the year at Colonial and the Tour Championship and should be motivated for some early season redemption. He posted two top five finishes in the playoffs and was also third in Mexico at a venue that sets up at least somewhat similarly to this week (receptive greens, seaside venue etc.).
Scheffler’s iron and around the green game remained ultra-elite in the fall, and if he brings anything positive with the putter, he will contend. Given the elite list of past winners, he should make for a solid outright target and could even slide into fourth or fifth favorite status given the number of great players in the field this week.
Trey Mullinax | DraftKings Value | Top 10 Bet
Mullinax had a great fall and also grabbed a 5th place finish at the first FedEx Cup playoff event in Memphis. He’s an aggressive iron player whose tendency to get a little wild off the tee won’t hurt him much given the fairways this week are some of the widest on tour. His only win came in humid conditions in Kentucky at another event known for low scoring. Given the way he ended last season (with a 4th place finish) don’t be shocked if he starts 2023 out well with a good showing at this limited field event.
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