Tuesday, July 6, brings 28 teams in action with loads of horrendous pitchers taking the mound. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Tuesday, July 6
Yahoo Stack of the Day: Baltimore Orioles vs. LHP Steven Matz — 4.7 implied runs
All eyes will be on the Blue Jays in this game, as they will be facing Spenser Watkins with a Coors-esque 6.5 implied run total. However, the Orioles have several right-handed hitters coming in at discounted salaries on Yahoo, and they will be the perfect catalyst to provide flexibility. While Steven Matz has done a decent job limiting home runs, he has been wildly inconsistent with his results, as his strikeouts and walks have been all over the place.
The Orioles have been a bottom-three team against right-handed hurlers, but they have been in the top five for most of the season against lefties. Austin Hays ($13), Trey Mancini ($12) and Anthony Santander ($11) all have a long history of success in opposite-handed matchups. These three each have ISOs over .200 in the last two-plus seasons, and they will likely be bunched in the middle of the order for added synergy.
Awesemo’s MLB DFS experts have created a new MLB Home Run & Strikeout Player Prop Tool that can help when making MLB DFS picks and offer some action down in the sports betting market. This expert tool is designed to predict the probability of hitters hitting home runs and pitchers to reach a certain number of strikeouts.
Evening Slate
Philadelphia Phillies at RHP Jake Arrieta — 5.5 implied runs
It is going to be in the mid-80s with a 10 to 12 mph breeze out to center field in Wrigley tonight. On the mound is Jake Arrieta, who has been a disaster for much of the season, and in June he was on a horrible downward trend. The strikeouts have been inconsistent, the walks too high and the home runs a glaring issue, with 16 allowed on the season and seven in his last 21.2 innings.
The Phillies are nearly at full strength now, and Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins should be in the heart of the order. Odubel Herrera and Jean Segura are intriguing options at the top, and for differentiation, gamers can work in Didi Gregorius and Alec Bohm as discounted power options. Andrew McCutchen is a wild card who has been moving around the batting order with the various injuries, so it will be interesting to see where he lands tonight.
Late Slate
New York Yankees at LHP Justus Sheffield — 5.4 implied runs
June was a rough month for Justus Sheffield, who only closed out the fifth inning once and ventured beyond it one other time in his five starts. Over his 23.0 innings he ceded eight dingers, which contributed to an unsightly 7.83 ERA. While he did have 22 strikeouts, it was not nearly enough to offset his two baserunners allowed per inning.
Tonight the Yankees will likely run out a lineup consisting entirely of right-handed batsmen. This is not going to be fun for Sheffield, as he has suffered nearly a .200 ISO this season to opposite-handed hitters. Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are all in fine form, though they cost top dollar. D.J. LeMahieu is finally getting into a groove, and it is hard to envision him slumping as long as he actually did. Finally Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela and Miguel Andujar can be worked in depending on position need and salary cap constraints. The Yankees are definitely some of the top MLB DFS picks on all slates tonight.
Spotlight Pitchers
Top Target: RHP Jacob deGrom vs. Milwaukee Brewers — 2.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $68 | FanDuel $11,400 | DraftKings $11,500
Five of his nine earned runs this season have come in his last two starts, but Jacob deGrom also has 19 strikeouts in those same 13 innings with one walk. He leads MLB with a 0.95 ERA and a 0.54 WHIP, which are accompanied by 14.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Keep an eye on the forecast, which is more concerning than the Brewers bats.
Secondary Target: RHP Aaron Nola at Chicago Cubs — 3.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $44 | FanDuel $9,600 | DraftKings $8,700
While the weather in Chicago is far from pitching friendly tonight, the Cubs have been a bottom-third offense against righties this season, scoring 11% less efficiently than league average and striking out at the highest rate. Nola has been locked in and owning the strike zone with 42 strikeouts across 30 June innings, including an eye-popping 23 in his last two starts spanning 10 innings. In DFS baseball strikeouts are the currency of the realm, and they have a way of making earned runs and baserunners seem like trivial nuisances.
Wild Card: RHP Ian Anderson at Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $45 | FanDuel $8,400 | DraftKings $8,600
Although the strikeouts are not particularly consistent for Ian Anderson, he is still averaging just over one per inning. This season he has done a nice job of limiting power while suffering just eight home runs. He has completed five innings more often than not, with about half of those outings stretching into the sixth or even seventh. Though the Pirates are not a strikeout-heavy teams, they have the worst power numbers in the league against righties and are scoring runs 17% less efficiently than league average. While Anderson may not bring the upside, the baseline is solid with tonight’s matchup against the Pirates.
Final Thoughts for the Tuesday, July 6, MLB DFS Slate
Tonight there are only a couple weather spots to monitor, with Minnesota carrying the most risk. Baltimore and New York have more localized systems that could be hit or miss, so keep tabs as first pitch approaches.
