There are limited pitching options today, but a slate of 15 games means a whole bunch of available props to target for MLB PrizePicks today. And what better way to enjoy tonight’s games than by signing up at PrizePicks tonight using promo code “AWESEMO” for a $100 first match deposit bonus for new users? Free money plus three advantageous plays below means plenty of opportunities to win no matter what stakes or buy-in level you prefer. Plus, PrizePicks is purposely lowering certain MLB players’ projections on purpose this evening, giving the player even more of an advantage.
To play, pair at least two plays together (up to five), pick over or under the given projected fantasy score or specific stats for players, and you are set. It really is that simple, so sign up below to start winning today!
PrizePicks Fantasy Baseball: MLB Picks Tonight
Note: Player props are constantly moving over at PrizePicks. Make the MLB picks below as soon as possible knowing they might change later on in the day.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Runs + RBIs
Only two players today have lines of 1.5 on this prop rather than 0.5: Guerrero and Juan Soto. Both are risky plays given the volatility of run production in baseball, but taking the stab with Guerrero makes a lot more sense than doing so with Soto. For one, Guerrero is the game’s premier power bat at this point, and the Blue Jays’ stout lineup means Guerrero has a good chance to score any time he gets on base. But more importantly, today he gets to face Garrett Richards going sans grip enhancers, and that pitcher is barely starter caliber. Since increased scrutiny began in early June, Richards’ ERA has jumped over a full run, he has gone a full six innings just once, and he has allowed at least four runs in five of nine starts.
Guerrero, meanwhile, has been on a bit of a slump with regard to this line, failing to hit the over in each of his last four games. However, on the season he is averaging 1.64 runs/RBIs per game. As such, the play here is regressing positively to his mean.
Garrett Richards Under 3.5 Strikeouts
Since Guerrero is being targeted above largely due to the prime matchup, the play here is to double down on said matchup by shorting Richards’ strikeouts. Those numbers have also been progressively worse since the substance crackdown, as he has averaged 3.44 strikeouts per outing in nine June/July starts. He has failed to hit this over in just over half of those games, and in two games against the Blue Jays in this stretch he has hit it once and missed it once. And the one where he hit the total he allowed three home runs. The expectation is, playing in Fenway where powerful pull hitters of either handedness can leave the yard rather easily, Toronto will chase Richards early. And if he does not make it to the sixth inning, it seems unlikely Richards will fool the Blue Jays enough to get to four strikeouts.
Brad Keller Under 16.5 Pitching Outs
The White Sox have scored the fourth-most runs in MLB this season, but over the last seven days they have dropped all the way to dead last. This is an extremely recent trend, as they are third in runs over the last 30 days. Yesterday struggling Royals starter Mike Minor held the Sox to just two runs on three hits in six innings, and that was with Eloy Jimenez in the lineup for the first time this season. While that may point to Chicago being an exploitable lineup at the moment, instead the play is again to target mean regression, and Keller is the beneficiary of that projection. Keller has been pretty good over his last handful of starts, hitting the over on this line in each of the last three, but his season ERA only recently dipped below 6.00 for the first time in a month. His season-long trends show him as a gas can, and the White Sox can put up runs in a hurry under the right circumstances.
With Jimenez back in the lineup (and now with a game under his belt), Chicago has a powerful, righty-heavy lineup. Keller’s numbers against righties and lefties are nearly identical, only he strikes out righties at a far lower rate. Expect the Sox to get back on track tonight and chase Keller before he can get the second out of the sixth inning.
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